Make no mistake he will be found guilty in an NYC court. The media and left will love it. Until they see that if anything it will help him. More than anything these NY cases and the attempts to get him tossed off ballots in States are destroying the credibility of the one case in Florida where the facts may be on their side.
The prophecy of MTG....
- Thread starter kckd
- Start date
Yeah...I know....And that's the context that is missing.
There wasn't some magical trump policy in 2020 to increase real wages by 7.1%. Context is key. What you state above affected real wage growth between March and November 2020.
November 2020 at the end of trump's term (at the same time of 7.1% real wage growth).
Not disputing any of the numbers above, but understanding the "why" behind them makes this a more meaningful back and forth. And in this example you cannot have 7.1% real wage growth and not be willing to have 6.7% unemployment (6.4% in Jan 2021 just to be more accurate).
See note RE: context. A 4% increase in real wage growth over 11 months (3.1% in month 37 and 7.1% in month 48) is impossible unless there are others factors at play. It sure wasn't policy that played into it...no other president has had anything come close to those numbers...and that means it's an outlier...the numbers mean nothing without the "why" behind them.
If your expectation is for 4% real wage growth over 11 months, be ready to be disappointed in nov 2025 if trump is elected.
Even through the first 3 years at 3.1% (before Covid), he was still ahead of all Presidents before and after him.
If your theory is correct, without Covid he still finishes out over + 4 %………and still miles ahead of who was before and after him.
You argument doesn’t hold water:
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Not disagreeing on your point about where he was at month 37. You provided that data and I cannot refute it.Even through the first 3 years (before Covid), he was still ahead of all before and after him.
If your theory is correct, without Covid he still finishes out over + 4 %………and still miles ahead of who was before and after him.
You argument doesn’t hold water:
But 4% real wage growth is impossible over 11 months without serious external factors. There is no policy that could be implemented that gives you that result. My argument stands.
I have no way of knowing the trajectory of the real wage growth prior to COVID. I haven't seen the trend lines year over year before month 37 to express an opinion. Was it going up or down at that point? Genuinely curious...
“But 4% real wage growth is impossible over 11 months without serious external factors. There is no policy that could be implemented that gives you that result. My argument stands”
For the sake of argument, I gave you that and tried your way.
Hence, the word “theory”, which is what you were doing. So I’m doing the same, using your argument.
I’m simply taking his average through the first 3 years of (before Covid) and projecting his 4th year.
Again, he still finishes out over 4% for 48 months. And again, these numbers are cumulative (chart). The plus 4% number I used is not for 11 months…..it’s all 48 months.
He comes out way on top in the real world using 3 years or in the theoretical world doing it your way using 48 months……on top of all Presidents before or after him.
The math adds up, a big difference for some folks.
Fair. Even at 3.1% in 48 months there is no argument to make that's bad for trump. I will concede that.
My point is really about context on the 7.1%. It "monopoly money" as far as comparisons go to other presidents.
Your argument was about context, but you used theory to make one.
I gave you theory (over 4%) and I gave you real world (7.1%)……and my point was still made. Either way, he is still WAY on top.
It’s hard to make numbers lie…
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Not hard to make them lie if you remove context. My original point of 7.1% being an outlier still stands and trump won't replicate that with any kind of policy initiative (based on theories and facts).
