Updated 3/5 with comments from last nights' games. Will update the analytics numbers later today. Obviously a huge win for Coach, the team and the program in Cola last night.
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The next two games plus the tournament are obviously huge for the current and future UGA basketball fortunes. I see a lot of "have to win one, have to win both" but it is not so simple. What the teams also on the bubble do plus the inevitable bid thieves make the equation complex.
The seeding/rankings/information I use are from Neil Paine/Lunardi/ESPN but Jerry Palm is really good as well at CBS. Both have us pretty comfortably in at the moment. One loss or heaven forbid two suddenly muddies the water. Here is what we should also be looking out for:
The bubble competitors (starting with us): With no bid thieves, 6 of these will get in. For every bid thief, scratch one from this list.
GEORGIA - 19-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has us at 69% chance of getting in. (I think we crossed the threshold last night, but it would not hurt to close out with a win over the 'dores)
-33 in KenPom, 32 in NET, 39 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 35. 4-10 Q1 with MSU loss now being Q2.
- Home vs Vanderbilt Saturday (71.8% win probability)
OHIO ST - 17-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 59% chance of getting in. (Buckeyes survived pesky Nebraska to continue to control their destiny and look to be in a good spot to get in)
-34 in KenPom, 36 in NET, 35 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 50. 6-10 Q1 but 3 Q2 losses.
- At Indiana Saturday (47.6% win probability)
BOISE ST - 22-8 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 44% chance of getting in. (Boise stays in pretty good shape to make the tournament)
-43 in KenPom, 45 in NET, 47 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 54. 3-5 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 2 Q3 losses.
- Home vs Colorado St Friday (68.5% win probability)
ARKANSAS - 18-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 49% chance of getting in. (Cal's team got the minimum split they needed. A win this weekend or in the SECT gets them in IMO.)
-39 in KenPom, 39 in NET, 43 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 46. 5-9 Q1 but 3 Q2 losses.
- Home vs Miss St Saturday (57.4% win probability)
INDIANA - 18-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 46% chance of getting in. (Hoosiers loss at Oregon did not kill their chances, but they are moving to the wrong side of the bubble)
-46 in KenPom, 55 in NET, 52 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 49. 4-12 Q1 with no bad losses.
- Home vs Ohio St Saturday (52.4% win probability)
NORTH CAROLINA 20-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 36% chance of getting in. (Heels have a decent chance to make it in, even with a loss to Duke. They should be able to squeeze out 3-4 more wins between tomorrow and the conf tourney but still the lack of of Q1 will be a factor)
-38 in KenPom, 38 in NET, 27 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 40. 1-10 Q1 with 1 Q3 loss.
- Home vs Duke Saturday (20.8% win probability)
NEBRASKA - 17-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 25% chance of getting in. (Huskers lost a heartbreaker in 2OT to Ohio St...continue their fade)
-52 in KenPom, 57 in NET, 53 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 59. 5-10 Q1 but 1 Q2 and 2 Q3 losses.
- Home vs Iowa Sunday (70.1% win probability)
TEXAS 17-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 29% chance of getting in. (Horns went from dead to life support with win in Starkville...may still need a win or two in Nashville)
-42 in KenPom, 41 in NET, 34 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 53. 5-9 Q1 with 4 Q2 losses.
- Home vs Oklahoma Saturday (72.4% win probability)
OKLAHOMA - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 38% chance of getting in. (Do not like the Sooner's chances...at all)
-44 in KenPom, 50 in NET, 51 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 48. 4-10 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss.
- Home vs Mizzou tonight (49.1% win probability per ESPN)
- At Texas Saturday (28.3% win probability)
XAVIER - 19-10 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 38% chance of getting in. (The lack of Q1 wins will probably be Xavier's Achilles heel)
-45 in KenPom, 49 in NET, 40 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 42. 1-9 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss.
- at Butler tonight (-3.5 with 50.9% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Providence Saturday (80.7% win probability)
The Potential for bid thieves are:
1. American tourney champ if Memphis does not win it.
2. Atlantic 10 conference tourney champ if VCU does not win it.
3. WCC conference tourney champ if St Mary's or Gonzaga does not win it
4. Big East conference tourney champ if St Johns/UConn/Creighton/Marquette does not win it
5. ACC conference champ if Duke/Clemson/Louisville does not win it
I honestly do not see any real chance of a current non-tourney team winning the SEC, B1G or Big XII...just too many good teams to beat there.
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The next two games plus the tournament are obviously huge for the current and future UGA basketball fortunes. I see a lot of "have to win one, have to win both" but it is not so simple. What the teams also on the bubble do plus the inevitable bid thieves make the equation complex.
The seeding/rankings/information I use are from Neil Paine/Lunardi/ESPN but Jerry Palm is really good as well at CBS. Both have us pretty comfortably in at the moment. One loss or heaven forbid two suddenly muddies the water. Here is what we should also be looking out for:
The bubble competitors (starting with us): With no bid thieves, 6 of these will get in. For every bid thief, scratch one from this list.
GEORGIA - 19-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has us at 69% chance of getting in. (I think we crossed the threshold last night, but it would not hurt to close out with a win over the 'dores)
-33 in KenPom, 32 in NET, 39 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 35. 4-10 Q1 with MSU loss now being Q2.
- Home vs Vanderbilt Saturday (71.8% win probability)
OHIO ST - 17-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 59% chance of getting in. (Buckeyes survived pesky Nebraska to continue to control their destiny and look to be in a good spot to get in)
-34 in KenPom, 36 in NET, 35 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 50. 6-10 Q1 but 3 Q2 losses.
- At Indiana Saturday (47.6% win probability)
BOISE ST - 22-8 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 44% chance of getting in. (Boise stays in pretty good shape to make the tournament)
-43 in KenPom, 45 in NET, 47 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 54. 3-5 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 2 Q3 losses.
- Home vs Colorado St Friday (68.5% win probability)
ARKANSAS - 18-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 49% chance of getting in. (Cal's team got the minimum split they needed. A win this weekend or in the SECT gets them in IMO.)
-39 in KenPom, 39 in NET, 43 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 46. 5-9 Q1 but 3 Q2 losses.
- Home vs Miss St Saturday (57.4% win probability)
INDIANA - 18-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 46% chance of getting in. (Hoosiers loss at Oregon did not kill their chances, but they are moving to the wrong side of the bubble)
-46 in KenPom, 55 in NET, 52 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 49. 4-12 Q1 with no bad losses.
- Home vs Ohio St Saturday (52.4% win probability)
NORTH CAROLINA 20-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 36% chance of getting in. (Heels have a decent chance to make it in, even with a loss to Duke. They should be able to squeeze out 3-4 more wins between tomorrow and the conf tourney but still the lack of of Q1 will be a factor)
-38 in KenPom, 38 in NET, 27 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 40. 1-10 Q1 with 1 Q3 loss.
- Home vs Duke Saturday (20.8% win probability)
NEBRASKA - 17-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 25% chance of getting in. (Huskers lost a heartbreaker in 2OT to Ohio St...continue their fade)
-52 in KenPom, 57 in NET, 53 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 59. 5-10 Q1 but 1 Q2 and 2 Q3 losses.
- Home vs Iowa Sunday (70.1% win probability)
TEXAS 17-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 29% chance of getting in. (Horns went from dead to life support with win in Starkville...may still need a win or two in Nashville)
-42 in KenPom, 41 in NET, 34 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 53. 5-9 Q1 with 4 Q2 losses.
- Home vs Oklahoma Saturday (72.4% win probability)
OKLAHOMA - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 38% chance of getting in. (Do not like the Sooner's chances...at all)
-44 in KenPom, 50 in NET, 51 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 48. 4-10 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss.
- Home vs Mizzou tonight (49.1% win probability per ESPN)
- At Texas Saturday (28.3% win probability)
XAVIER - 19-10 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 38% chance of getting in. (The lack of Q1 wins will probably be Xavier's Achilles heel)
-45 in KenPom, 49 in NET, 40 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 42. 1-9 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss.
- at Butler tonight (-3.5 with 50.9% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Providence Saturday (80.7% win probability)
The Potential for bid thieves are:
1. American tourney champ if Memphis does not win it.
2. Atlantic 10 conference tourney champ if VCU does not win it.
3. WCC conference tourney champ if St Mary's or Gonzaga does not win it
4. Big East conference tourney champ if St Johns/UConn/Creighton/Marquette does not win it
5. ACC conference champ if Duke/Clemson/Louisville does not win it
I honestly do not see any real chance of a current non-tourney team winning the SEC, B1G or Big XII...just too many good teams to beat there.
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