Georgia
What to know: Georgia blends freshmen starpower with great rebounding, but turnover issues could hold it back.
Record: 20-12 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: Mike White (6-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Asa Newell (SEC All-Freshman Team)
Numbers
BetMGM title odds
+30000
Sweet 16 projected chance
4.6%
Final Four projected chance
0.7%
Strengths: Georgia is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, ranking top-20 in offensive rebounding percentage due to its size and physicality. Its average height of 78.9 inches is ninth in the nation, and the Bulldogs are led up front by a future lottery pick in 6-foot-11 freshman phenom Asa Newell. They also feature guards who can score in bunches when hot. The sophomore tandem of Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain caught fire at the end of the regular season, averaging a combined 31.5 points per game in the last eight games. There’s a lot to like defensively, too. Georgia ranked top-25 in 3-point percentage defense at 30.3 percent and top-15 in blocks per game (5.3). The Bulldogs’ athleticism and toughness could make them a tough out, especially if they are hitting shots.
Weaknesses: Taking care of the basketball has plagued Georgia. In the regular season, the Bulldogs ranked 279th out of 364 Division I programs in turnovers per game (12.9), and they finished in the 350s in offensive steal rate, allowing teams to get out and score easy buckets in transition. They don’t really have a true point guard, and it shows. Another concerning sign is college hoops analyst Evan Miyakawa’s numbers, which had Georgia conceding the third-most 10-0 runs in the SEC behind Vanderbilt and LSU. With no reliable distributor and scoring droughts that can last a while, Georgia is vulnerable against teams capable of exploiting these flaws.
Outlook: The Bulldogs could be a dark horse to make the Sweet 16 if they clean up the sloppy play, but those issues aren’t limited to one player and could be hard to fix. However, stars tend to show up in March, and Newell is a bona fide superstar. This may be one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the field. Georgia showed flashes in the SEC, but it displayed inconsistency as well. It’s hard to gauge where UGA might end up.
Gonzaga
What to know: Do you trust Gonzaga’s metrics? Or do you trust its resume and lack of big wins?
Record: 25-8 (14-4 WCC)
Coach: Mark Few (43-24 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ryan Nembhard (First Team All-WCC)
Numbers
BetMGM title odds
+5000
Sweet 16 projected chance
24.0%
Final Four projected chance
8.0%
Strengths: When Gonzaga gets rolling, it is one of the nation’s elite offenses. What Mark Few wants to do has not changed in many years. The concept is simple but effective: Push in transition and look for one of the bigs to get a seal early. If that doesn’t happen, run a continuity ball-screen offense that allows Ryan Nembhard, one of the nation’s best passers, to show out. With post weapons Graham Ike and Braden Huff surrounded by shooters, the Zags have a good chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the 10th consecutive NCAA Tournament. The last time they failed to make the second weekend, they lost to Syracuse in 2010 when Kelly Olynyk was a Bulldogs freshman. This team has the firepower offensively to make that happen again.
Weaknesses: I am not buying Gonzaga defensively. For starters, I have a hard time trusting teams that want to play a two-big lineup when neither big is a threat to switch out and guard on the perimeter. It’s a roster construction that is becoming a bit more trendy in college basketball, but the versatility is important. With Michael Ajayi moving out of the starting lineup, I don’t know if Gonzaga has it. I also don’t trust its rim protection. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in 2-point field goal percentage defense, an issue that is exacerbated by the fact that they don’t have great on-ball defenders along the arc. That’s a recipe for disaster in the Dance.
Outlook: The Zags are one of the toughest teams to figure out in the NCAA Tournament field because they are an outlier. They are a top-10 team, according to the predictive metrics (including KenPom). They rank outside the top 40, according to the resume metrics, and there has never been a squad that has had that much of a difference between the metrics to evaluate how good it is and what it actually accomplished (i.e. who it beat). It goes against every fiber of my being to side against KenPom, but I tend to think the resume metrics are correct. I believe this is the year that Mark Few’s Sweet 16 streak comes to an end. I said the same thing, for the same reason, last year as well.
What to know: Georgia blends freshmen starpower with great rebounding, but turnover issues could hold it back.
Record: 20-12 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: Mike White (6-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Asa Newell (SEC All-Freshman Team)
Numbers
BetMGM title odds
+30000
Sweet 16 projected chance
4.6%
Final Four projected chance
0.7%
Strengths: Georgia is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, ranking top-20 in offensive rebounding percentage due to its size and physicality. Its average height of 78.9 inches is ninth in the nation, and the Bulldogs are led up front by a future lottery pick in 6-foot-11 freshman phenom Asa Newell. They also feature guards who can score in bunches when hot. The sophomore tandem of Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain caught fire at the end of the regular season, averaging a combined 31.5 points per game in the last eight games. There’s a lot to like defensively, too. Georgia ranked top-25 in 3-point percentage defense at 30.3 percent and top-15 in blocks per game (5.3). The Bulldogs’ athleticism and toughness could make them a tough out, especially if they are hitting shots.
Weaknesses: Taking care of the basketball has plagued Georgia. In the regular season, the Bulldogs ranked 279th out of 364 Division I programs in turnovers per game (12.9), and they finished in the 350s in offensive steal rate, allowing teams to get out and score easy buckets in transition. They don’t really have a true point guard, and it shows. Another concerning sign is college hoops analyst Evan Miyakawa’s numbers, which had Georgia conceding the third-most 10-0 runs in the SEC behind Vanderbilt and LSU. With no reliable distributor and scoring droughts that can last a while, Georgia is vulnerable against teams capable of exploiting these flaws.
Outlook: The Bulldogs could be a dark horse to make the Sweet 16 if they clean up the sloppy play, but those issues aren’t limited to one player and could be hard to fix. However, stars tend to show up in March, and Newell is a bona fide superstar. This may be one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the field. Georgia showed flashes in the SEC, but it displayed inconsistency as well. It’s hard to gauge where UGA might end up.
Gonzaga
What to know: Do you trust Gonzaga’s metrics? Or do you trust its resume and lack of big wins?
Record: 25-8 (14-4 WCC)
Coach: Mark Few (43-24 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ryan Nembhard (First Team All-WCC)
Numbers
BetMGM title odds
+5000
Sweet 16 projected chance
24.0%
Final Four projected chance
8.0%
Strengths: When Gonzaga gets rolling, it is one of the nation’s elite offenses. What Mark Few wants to do has not changed in many years. The concept is simple but effective: Push in transition and look for one of the bigs to get a seal early. If that doesn’t happen, run a continuity ball-screen offense that allows Ryan Nembhard, one of the nation’s best passers, to show out. With post weapons Graham Ike and Braden Huff surrounded by shooters, the Zags have a good chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the 10th consecutive NCAA Tournament. The last time they failed to make the second weekend, they lost to Syracuse in 2010 when Kelly Olynyk was a Bulldogs freshman. This team has the firepower offensively to make that happen again.
Weaknesses: I am not buying Gonzaga defensively. For starters, I have a hard time trusting teams that want to play a two-big lineup when neither big is a threat to switch out and guard on the perimeter. It’s a roster construction that is becoming a bit more trendy in college basketball, but the versatility is important. With Michael Ajayi moving out of the starting lineup, I don’t know if Gonzaga has it. I also don’t trust its rim protection. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in 2-point field goal percentage defense, an issue that is exacerbated by the fact that they don’t have great on-ball defenders along the arc. That’s a recipe for disaster in the Dance.
Outlook: The Zags are one of the toughest teams to figure out in the NCAA Tournament field because they are an outlier. They are a top-10 team, according to the predictive metrics (including KenPom). They rank outside the top 40, according to the resume metrics, and there has never been a squad that has had that much of a difference between the metrics to evaluate how good it is and what it actually accomplished (i.e. who it beat). It goes against every fiber of my being to side against KenPom, but I tend to think the resume metrics are correct. I believe this is the year that Mark Few’s Sweet 16 streak comes to an end. I said the same thing, for the same reason, last year as well.
