Ladies and gentlemen of the Dawgvent --
First, I must warn you that this is going to be an epically long post. It's also comprised purely of my personal speculation regarding the upcoming football season, and that speculation is based on nothing more than what I've read in preseason magazines, seen on websites (including this one), and heard on sports talk radio. I am no more an expert than anyone else here -- less so than some -- and I don't claim to be. But I did spend years writing for a living (sort of), I'm now a professional researcher, I enjoy this stuff, and I know of no better forum in which to present it. So...yeah, there you have it.
I used to do a post like this before every season, but it's been at least five years since I've gotten around to it, thanks mostly to having young kids. For several years before I began posting these preseason manifestos here, I put together spreadsheets of data on Georgia and all its opponents before every football season. In these spreadsheets, I try to identify each team's strengths and weaknesses (at least the ones that stand out on paper before the season), examine each of their schedules (paying attention to bye week placement, tough stretches, and year-to-year trends), and come up with a guess as to how every team on our schedule will do in each of their games. Think of it as sort of an abbreviated, Georgia-centric preseason magazine, but without a publisher.
I fully recognize that this is overkill at best, and a complete waste of time at worst. And I'm okay with that, because I love college football, including all the fruitless analysis and guesswork that can come with it. Anyway, without further ado, here's what I've come up with going into the 2016 college football season:
North Carolina
10-2 (6-2 ACC)
Bowl prediction: Orange
Strengths: RB, OL, WR, CB, S
Weaknesses: LB
Hardest games to pick: Georgia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh
My expectations for North Carolina seem to be higher than most. In fairness, it's not particularly hard to imagine the Tar Heels going 8-4, with difficult-to-predict matchups against Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh punctuating their schedule. But I anticipate UNC beating Georgia in the opener, due in part to Georgia's uncertainty at RB and our extraordinarily thin DL to kick off Kirby Smart's tenure. North Carolina returns thirteen starters (seven on offense), and their OL two-deep should feature four seniors and three experienced juniors. Their defense may be susceptible to a consistent rushing attack, but their pass defense should be among the nation's best.
Nicholls State
4-7
Bowl prediction: n/a
Strengths: LB
Weaknesses: RB, K
Hardest games to pick: Northwestern State, Lamar
There's honestly not much to be said here. Nicholls State is a bad-to-mediocre FCS team with maybe five players who could make an FCS roster (and possibly a single linebacker who could compete for playing time in the SEC). There is a very good chance that Kirby's first home game as Georgia's head coach will be a shutout with a spread of 50+ points.
Missouri
3-9 (0-8 SEC)
Bowl prediction: none
Strengths: DL, LB, WR, P
Weaknesses: OL, RB, K
Hardest games to pick: South Carolina, Vanderbilt
In contrast to my view of North Carolina, I'm more pessimistic about Missouri's 2016 outlook than most prognosticators seem to be. But what I see is a team which lost its longtime head coach, four OL starters, its starting RB, and half its secondary. Their schedule is very difficult for such a transitional year, with an opener against a desperate (and potent) West Virginia team and only three guaranteed wins the rest of the way. I've got Missouri competing with South Carolina for the ignominious distinction of "worst team in the SEC." I'd love it if they beat the Gamecocks, though.
Ole Miss
9-3 (6-2 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Citrus Bowl
Strengths: QB, DE, CB, TE, K
Weaknesses: LB
Hardest games to pick: LSU, Georgia, Mississippi State
In spite of their very talented roster, Ole Miss is really kind of a question mark heading into the season, thanks to the ongoing NCAA investigation and the looming prospect of severe penalties. If they lose Hugh Freeze for any length of time during the year, all bets are off; I really wouldn't know what to predict for them without their lightning rod of a head coach. But assuming Freeze stays in place and the NCAA does its typical foot-dragging, I expect the Rebels to lose to LSU, Alabama, and Florida State. Chad Kelly is easily the SEC's best returning QB (on paper, at least), but he won't have nearly the OL he had last year.
Tennessee
10-2 (6-2 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Sugar Bowl
Strengths: QB, OL, RB, DE, LB, CB, KR, PR
Weaknesses: DT, S
Hardest games to pick: Florida, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia
Apart from LSU, Tennessee returns the most depth and experience in the league. With nine starters returning on each side of the ball, it's not hard to see why so much is expected of this team. This is kind of their version of the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs, only with somewhat less hype (I mean, nobody's ranking them #1). But based on their roster, Tennessee is clearly the favorite in the SEC East this season. Their main obstacle is a brutal schedule, with a losable game against Virginia Tech at Bristol, followed two weeks later by a four-week stretch against their four toughest opponents (Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M, Alabama). Their other big stumbling block, according to a lot of folks, is that their head coach is dumb. I foresee them losing two of those four huge games in a row: at Texas A&M and vs. Alabama.
South Carolina
4-8 (1-7 SEC)
Bowl prediction: none
Strengths: LB, K, P
Weaknesses: WR
Hardest games to pick: Missouri, East Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
South Carolina's Hall of Fame head coach quit on his team in the middle of their 2015 season, and it’s widely half-joked that he stopped recruiting long before that. Even with most of last season to get a head start on their coaching search, the Gamecocks were rejected by at least two coaches before settling for one of the SEC’s most high-profile failures of the last decade or two. He then managed to reel in a consensus top-30 recruiting class, which has to be considered a minor miracle. And thus the stage is set for their 2016 season. South Carolina is likely to be a bad team this year, and I’m leaning toward the bottom end of the spectrum when it comes to most prognosticators’ expectations for them. With Vanderbilt and Kentucky set to continue their slow climb (see below), the Gamecocks may have only two easy wins on their schedule.
Vanderbilt
6-6 (2-6 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Birmingham Bowl
Strengths: CB, RB
Weaknesses: S
Hardest games to pick: Kentucky, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky
I think Vanderbilt is heading back in the right direction, albeit slowly. Derek Mason strikes me as a good coach who has demonstrably learned on the job during his two years at the helm. His defense, the obvious strength of last year’s team, returns seven starters, including five prominent members of the back seven. The offense is harder to gauge, with five returning starters scattered around the depth chart – but there’s almost nowhere for that unit to go but up. I think that defense is going to win Vandy a few games this season, to the tune of a .500 record and a bowl bid.
Florida
9-3 (6-2 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Outback Bowl
Strengths: CB, S, OLB, P
Weaknesses: QB
Hardest games to pick: Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas
Man, we have a lot of teams on our schedule this season who are in transition and therefore hard to predict. I can see this Florida team going anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2. If their offense can rebound from the morass they found themselves in after the loss of Will Grier, I expect the defense to put together a strong season (without petering out down the stretch as they did in 2015). Really, all they need is a mediocre offense to take the pressure off that defense. With all that in mind, the Georgia-Florida game is the single most difficult game for me to predict going into this season. I’m giving Florida a 1-point edge basically by default, based mostly on our recent history in Jacksonville, but I can easily see Kirby putting together his best plan of the year for that game. Otherwise, I think it’s reasonable to expect the Gators to lose to Florida State and LSU, with the Tennessee game being another toss-up. (I’m giving it to Tennessee because they’re due, it’s in Knoxville, and the Vols’ roster is deeper.)
Kentucky
7-5 (4-4 SEC)
Bowl prediction: TaxSlayer (Gator)
Strengths: OL, RB, WR, S
Weaknesses: DL
Hardest games to pick: Vanderbilt, Southern Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Like Vanderbilt, I think Kentucky is making incremental progress. As such, like Vanderbilt, I think they’ll make it to a bowl game this year. By no means is that a guarantee, but I like the looks of Kentucky going into the 2016 season, particularly on offense. They return nine offensive starters, including four out of five offensive linemen, their top three receivers, and a legitimate threat at RB. Their defensive backfield should be solid, but the front seven are severely lacking in experience. UK’s schedule is manageable, with a bye week right in the middle and no unusually difficult stretches. Georgia should handle them with relative ease, but we’ll face them the week after going to Florida, so there’s a chance of a hangover there if the coaching staff isn’t on top of things.
Auburn
6-6 (3-5 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Music City Bowl
Strengths: DT, S, OG
Weaknesses: OT, WR
Hardest games to pick: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas A&M
Of all the teams on Georgia’s schedule this season, Auburn is the biggest mystery. With Malzahn’s teams, you just never know what you’re going to get, and that’s never been more true than it is in 2016. Was 2015 a fluke? Do they really have a quarterback this year? Can they effectively replace both their offensive tackles without a big drop-off in production? Do they have anything at WR? Is Kevin Steele a step up from Muschamp (who appeared to have them trending in the right direction by the end of the season)? What about all the other new position coaches? Auburn has recruited pretty well every year under Malzahn, so the talent is there. But it’s impossible to predict any sort of consistency with the cloud of question marks surrounding the program right now. I do think Georgia’s got their number lately, but by the time we play them, Auburn could be rolling. Or they could be completely in the tank. Who knows?
UL-Lafayette
7-5 (4-3 Sun Belt)
Bowl prediction: Camellia Bowl
Strengths: RB, S
Weaknesses: QB, K
Hardest games to pick: Tulane, McNeese State, New Mexico State
Okay, this team is tough to pick, too, for some of the same reasons as Auburn. The Ragin’ Cajuns were uncharacteristically sloppy and bad last season, going 4-8 after four consecutive 9-4 seasons. This is a team that typically does quite well within its conference – 2015 was a real anomaly. They return seven starters on each side of the ball this year, most notably their extremely productive do-it-all RB. The defense was really awful last year, although they did suffer some extremely poor luck with turnovers. I frankly don’t know if a 7-5 record coming out of the Sun Belt will be enough to net a bowl bid, but I’m going out on a limb and speculating that it will. Obviously, I don’t expect Georgia to have any trouble with these guys.
Georgia Tech
5-7 (3-5 ACC)
Bowl prediction: None
Strengths: DL, LB
Weaknesses: DB, WR
Hardest games to pick: Vanderbilt, Miami, Virginia Tech
Yet another team whose 2016 prospects are a real enigma. Tech was gloriously terrible in 2015, with the lone highlight of their season being a fluke win over Florida State (man, the end of that game made me sick). The nerds bring back three starters on their OL, but that line was abysmal last year, so I don’t know if returning experience there is a blessing or a curse for them. They did also hire a second OL coach, which for the life of me I can’t understand. How is that supposed to work? Their QB was surprisingly good in 2014 and surprisingly bad in 2015; maybe he’ll split the difference and be mediocre within that mutant offense this year. Keith Marshall’s little brother is one of their numerous RBs this season, and they’ve supposedly got some talent at WR, at least by their rather low standards. Tech’s defensive front seven brings back a lot of experience, and they really weren’t bad last year. Their secondary, on the other hand, returns virtually nothing. I’m giving Georgia a win here, based mostly on the way things went under Richt, but recent years have shown that you can basically throw out the record book when we play those disgusting nerds.
Georgia
8-4 (5-3 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Cotton
Strengths: CB, S, RB (pending our two best guys returning from injuries)
Weaknesses: DL, K, P
Hardest games to pick: Florida, North Carolina, Auburn, Georgia Tech
With a rookie head coach, a severe lack of depth on the defensive line (and a pretty significant lack of experience throughout the front seven), and new systems on both sides of the ball, I anticipate Georgia regressing to something close to its historical average. That average is a .649 all-time win percentage, which works out to just under eight wins in a twelve-game season. I was sorely tempted to go 9-3, but in light of the factors listed above, I strongly suspect Georgia will lose at least one game it theoretically "shouldn't." As noted above, the hardest game for me to pick on Georgia’s schedule was the Florida game, which I see as pretty evenly matched, particularly with both teams entering off a bye week again.
General predictions
-While the SEC West appears to have the two best teams in the conference (and the East has the two worst), I think this is the year the East begins to catch up. I’ve got three SEC West teams (Auburn, Arkansas, and Texas A&M) poised to go 6-6 (3-5), with round-robin victories over one another to really muddy the waters. In the East, meanwhile, I’ve got four teams going better than 6-6.
-I think Alabama’s going to the playoff again, although LSU could theoretically shake things up. Speaking of the Bayou Bengals, LSU is at least going to a “Big Six” bowl game. With three SEC teams (South Carolina, Missouri, and Mississippi State) probably failing to reach bowl eligibility, that’ll ratchet up every bowl-eligible team’s placement. I’m kind of rolling the dice by predicting Georgia to the Cotton Bowl, as that bowl game has been allergic to us for years, but it would kind of make sense for us to wind up there at 8-4 or 9-3 after all those Outback Bowls. Remember, the bowl pecking order isn’t what it once was; the Cotton is now officially on the same tier as the Outback, TaxSlayer, and Citrus in years when it doesn’t host the playoff. Kind of. It’s a weird, opaque system.
-The ACC could place two teams in the playoff. I’m not sold on Clemson’s ability to go 11-1 or better, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If that happens, a 10-2 ACC team will find its way into the Orange Bowl. If not, North Carolina is probably TaxSlayer Bowl-bound. Unless…
-Here’s an unpalatable possibility (for me, at least): Georgia could play Miami in the TaxSlayer Bowl. I think that’s far more likely than both Georgia and Miami falling to the Music City Bowl, which is realistically the only other bowl game that could pair those two teams outside of the playoff. Here’s why:
-Miami’s going no worse than 8-4 this season, and they could easily go 10-2. They return ten starters on offense (including an excellent QB and all five starting offensive linemen) and nine starters on defense (including a potentially dominant defense line, now coached by the former Missouri DL coach). Miami has their bye week in September, and they face a tough stretch starting in mid-October: Florida State, North Carolina, at Virginia Tech (five days after UNC), at Notre Dame, Pittsburgh. This looks like a probable 9-3 team to me.
Random observations
-I think Ole Miss has the toughest schedule of any of our opponents, followed by Tennessee.
-Georgia Southern plays three of our opponents this season. This may be of interest to some of you and/or your family members.
-All of Kentucky’s opponents this season feature some shade of red and/or yellow in their school colors. (I’m really reaching here.)
-Florida is Georgia’s only opponent to face us coming off a bye week – and that’s our bye week, too.
-In addition to being UNC’s season opener, we’re also Nicholls State’s first opponent of the year. That doesn’t happen very often, being two teams’ first opponent.
-As alluded to repeatedly in my team-by-team predictions, I can’t recall any season in which so many of Georgia’s opponents were abject mysteries to predict. In my view, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Florida, UL-Lafayette, Vanderbilt, and UNC are all programs in transition. They’re coming off uncharacteristically bad seasons or unexpectedly good ones, they’re replacing multiple coaches and/or key starters, they’re welcoming back former starters after long-term injuries, etc. With that in mind, I have a feeling my predictions are going to be weaker than they were in years past. Back when I did these every season, I got pretty good at them (to the point where I was beating Vegas; if only I had money to gamble). But this year, I’m not as confident as I once was.
At any rate, that’s what I’ve got. Obviously, this post is intended to spark debate; I welcome your comments. I seriously doubt anybody’s going to agree with my predictions for every team on our schedule, and I’d like to hear your rationale for why I’m right or wrong.
Thanks for your time, and GO DAWGS!
-- 00 Dawg
First, I must warn you that this is going to be an epically long post. It's also comprised purely of my personal speculation regarding the upcoming football season, and that speculation is based on nothing more than what I've read in preseason magazines, seen on websites (including this one), and heard on sports talk radio. I am no more an expert than anyone else here -- less so than some -- and I don't claim to be. But I did spend years writing for a living (sort of), I'm now a professional researcher, I enjoy this stuff, and I know of no better forum in which to present it. So...yeah, there you have it.
I used to do a post like this before every season, but it's been at least five years since I've gotten around to it, thanks mostly to having young kids. For several years before I began posting these preseason manifestos here, I put together spreadsheets of data on Georgia and all its opponents before every football season. In these spreadsheets, I try to identify each team's strengths and weaknesses (at least the ones that stand out on paper before the season), examine each of their schedules (paying attention to bye week placement, tough stretches, and year-to-year trends), and come up with a guess as to how every team on our schedule will do in each of their games. Think of it as sort of an abbreviated, Georgia-centric preseason magazine, but without a publisher.
I fully recognize that this is overkill at best, and a complete waste of time at worst. And I'm okay with that, because I love college football, including all the fruitless analysis and guesswork that can come with it. Anyway, without further ado, here's what I've come up with going into the 2016 college football season:
North Carolina
10-2 (6-2 ACC)
Bowl prediction: Orange
Strengths: RB, OL, WR, CB, S
Weaknesses: LB
Hardest games to pick: Georgia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh
My expectations for North Carolina seem to be higher than most. In fairness, it's not particularly hard to imagine the Tar Heels going 8-4, with difficult-to-predict matchups against Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh punctuating their schedule. But I anticipate UNC beating Georgia in the opener, due in part to Georgia's uncertainty at RB and our extraordinarily thin DL to kick off Kirby Smart's tenure. North Carolina returns thirteen starters (seven on offense), and their OL two-deep should feature four seniors and three experienced juniors. Their defense may be susceptible to a consistent rushing attack, but their pass defense should be among the nation's best.
Nicholls State
4-7
Bowl prediction: n/a
Strengths: LB
Weaknesses: RB, K
Hardest games to pick: Northwestern State, Lamar
There's honestly not much to be said here. Nicholls State is a bad-to-mediocre FCS team with maybe five players who could make an FCS roster (and possibly a single linebacker who could compete for playing time in the SEC). There is a very good chance that Kirby's first home game as Georgia's head coach will be a shutout with a spread of 50+ points.
Missouri
3-9 (0-8 SEC)
Bowl prediction: none
Strengths: DL, LB, WR, P
Weaknesses: OL, RB, K
Hardest games to pick: South Carolina, Vanderbilt
In contrast to my view of North Carolina, I'm more pessimistic about Missouri's 2016 outlook than most prognosticators seem to be. But what I see is a team which lost its longtime head coach, four OL starters, its starting RB, and half its secondary. Their schedule is very difficult for such a transitional year, with an opener against a desperate (and potent) West Virginia team and only three guaranteed wins the rest of the way. I've got Missouri competing with South Carolina for the ignominious distinction of "worst team in the SEC." I'd love it if they beat the Gamecocks, though.
Ole Miss
9-3 (6-2 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Citrus Bowl
Strengths: QB, DE, CB, TE, K
Weaknesses: LB
Hardest games to pick: LSU, Georgia, Mississippi State
In spite of their very talented roster, Ole Miss is really kind of a question mark heading into the season, thanks to the ongoing NCAA investigation and the looming prospect of severe penalties. If they lose Hugh Freeze for any length of time during the year, all bets are off; I really wouldn't know what to predict for them without their lightning rod of a head coach. But assuming Freeze stays in place and the NCAA does its typical foot-dragging, I expect the Rebels to lose to LSU, Alabama, and Florida State. Chad Kelly is easily the SEC's best returning QB (on paper, at least), but he won't have nearly the OL he had last year.
Tennessee
10-2 (6-2 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Sugar Bowl
Strengths: QB, OL, RB, DE, LB, CB, KR, PR
Weaknesses: DT, S
Hardest games to pick: Florida, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia
Apart from LSU, Tennessee returns the most depth and experience in the league. With nine starters returning on each side of the ball, it's not hard to see why so much is expected of this team. This is kind of their version of the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs, only with somewhat less hype (I mean, nobody's ranking them #1). But based on their roster, Tennessee is clearly the favorite in the SEC East this season. Their main obstacle is a brutal schedule, with a losable game against Virginia Tech at Bristol, followed two weeks later by a four-week stretch against their four toughest opponents (Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M, Alabama). Their other big stumbling block, according to a lot of folks, is that their head coach is dumb. I foresee them losing two of those four huge games in a row: at Texas A&M and vs. Alabama.
South Carolina
4-8 (1-7 SEC)
Bowl prediction: none
Strengths: LB, K, P
Weaknesses: WR
Hardest games to pick: Missouri, East Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
South Carolina's Hall of Fame head coach quit on his team in the middle of their 2015 season, and it’s widely half-joked that he stopped recruiting long before that. Even with most of last season to get a head start on their coaching search, the Gamecocks were rejected by at least two coaches before settling for one of the SEC’s most high-profile failures of the last decade or two. He then managed to reel in a consensus top-30 recruiting class, which has to be considered a minor miracle. And thus the stage is set for their 2016 season. South Carolina is likely to be a bad team this year, and I’m leaning toward the bottom end of the spectrum when it comes to most prognosticators’ expectations for them. With Vanderbilt and Kentucky set to continue their slow climb (see below), the Gamecocks may have only two easy wins on their schedule.
Vanderbilt
6-6 (2-6 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Birmingham Bowl
Strengths: CB, RB
Weaknesses: S
Hardest games to pick: Kentucky, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky
I think Vanderbilt is heading back in the right direction, albeit slowly. Derek Mason strikes me as a good coach who has demonstrably learned on the job during his two years at the helm. His defense, the obvious strength of last year’s team, returns seven starters, including five prominent members of the back seven. The offense is harder to gauge, with five returning starters scattered around the depth chart – but there’s almost nowhere for that unit to go but up. I think that defense is going to win Vandy a few games this season, to the tune of a .500 record and a bowl bid.
Florida
9-3 (6-2 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Outback Bowl
Strengths: CB, S, OLB, P
Weaknesses: QB
Hardest games to pick: Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas
Man, we have a lot of teams on our schedule this season who are in transition and therefore hard to predict. I can see this Florida team going anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2. If their offense can rebound from the morass they found themselves in after the loss of Will Grier, I expect the defense to put together a strong season (without petering out down the stretch as they did in 2015). Really, all they need is a mediocre offense to take the pressure off that defense. With all that in mind, the Georgia-Florida game is the single most difficult game for me to predict going into this season. I’m giving Florida a 1-point edge basically by default, based mostly on our recent history in Jacksonville, but I can easily see Kirby putting together his best plan of the year for that game. Otherwise, I think it’s reasonable to expect the Gators to lose to Florida State and LSU, with the Tennessee game being another toss-up. (I’m giving it to Tennessee because they’re due, it’s in Knoxville, and the Vols’ roster is deeper.)
Kentucky
7-5 (4-4 SEC)
Bowl prediction: TaxSlayer (Gator)
Strengths: OL, RB, WR, S
Weaknesses: DL
Hardest games to pick: Vanderbilt, Southern Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Like Vanderbilt, I think Kentucky is making incremental progress. As such, like Vanderbilt, I think they’ll make it to a bowl game this year. By no means is that a guarantee, but I like the looks of Kentucky going into the 2016 season, particularly on offense. They return nine offensive starters, including four out of five offensive linemen, their top three receivers, and a legitimate threat at RB. Their defensive backfield should be solid, but the front seven are severely lacking in experience. UK’s schedule is manageable, with a bye week right in the middle and no unusually difficult stretches. Georgia should handle them with relative ease, but we’ll face them the week after going to Florida, so there’s a chance of a hangover there if the coaching staff isn’t on top of things.
Auburn
6-6 (3-5 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Music City Bowl
Strengths: DT, S, OG
Weaknesses: OT, WR
Hardest games to pick: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas A&M
Of all the teams on Georgia’s schedule this season, Auburn is the biggest mystery. With Malzahn’s teams, you just never know what you’re going to get, and that’s never been more true than it is in 2016. Was 2015 a fluke? Do they really have a quarterback this year? Can they effectively replace both their offensive tackles without a big drop-off in production? Do they have anything at WR? Is Kevin Steele a step up from Muschamp (who appeared to have them trending in the right direction by the end of the season)? What about all the other new position coaches? Auburn has recruited pretty well every year under Malzahn, so the talent is there. But it’s impossible to predict any sort of consistency with the cloud of question marks surrounding the program right now. I do think Georgia’s got their number lately, but by the time we play them, Auburn could be rolling. Or they could be completely in the tank. Who knows?
UL-Lafayette
7-5 (4-3 Sun Belt)
Bowl prediction: Camellia Bowl
Strengths: RB, S
Weaknesses: QB, K
Hardest games to pick: Tulane, McNeese State, New Mexico State
Okay, this team is tough to pick, too, for some of the same reasons as Auburn. The Ragin’ Cajuns were uncharacteristically sloppy and bad last season, going 4-8 after four consecutive 9-4 seasons. This is a team that typically does quite well within its conference – 2015 was a real anomaly. They return seven starters on each side of the ball this year, most notably their extremely productive do-it-all RB. The defense was really awful last year, although they did suffer some extremely poor luck with turnovers. I frankly don’t know if a 7-5 record coming out of the Sun Belt will be enough to net a bowl bid, but I’m going out on a limb and speculating that it will. Obviously, I don’t expect Georgia to have any trouble with these guys.
Georgia Tech
5-7 (3-5 ACC)
Bowl prediction: None
Strengths: DL, LB
Weaknesses: DB, WR
Hardest games to pick: Vanderbilt, Miami, Virginia Tech
Yet another team whose 2016 prospects are a real enigma. Tech was gloriously terrible in 2015, with the lone highlight of their season being a fluke win over Florida State (man, the end of that game made me sick). The nerds bring back three starters on their OL, but that line was abysmal last year, so I don’t know if returning experience there is a blessing or a curse for them. They did also hire a second OL coach, which for the life of me I can’t understand. How is that supposed to work? Their QB was surprisingly good in 2014 and surprisingly bad in 2015; maybe he’ll split the difference and be mediocre within that mutant offense this year. Keith Marshall’s little brother is one of their numerous RBs this season, and they’ve supposedly got some talent at WR, at least by their rather low standards. Tech’s defensive front seven brings back a lot of experience, and they really weren’t bad last year. Their secondary, on the other hand, returns virtually nothing. I’m giving Georgia a win here, based mostly on the way things went under Richt, but recent years have shown that you can basically throw out the record book when we play those disgusting nerds.
Georgia
8-4 (5-3 SEC)
Bowl prediction: Cotton
Strengths: CB, S, RB (pending our two best guys returning from injuries)
Weaknesses: DL, K, P
Hardest games to pick: Florida, North Carolina, Auburn, Georgia Tech
With a rookie head coach, a severe lack of depth on the defensive line (and a pretty significant lack of experience throughout the front seven), and new systems on both sides of the ball, I anticipate Georgia regressing to something close to its historical average. That average is a .649 all-time win percentage, which works out to just under eight wins in a twelve-game season. I was sorely tempted to go 9-3, but in light of the factors listed above, I strongly suspect Georgia will lose at least one game it theoretically "shouldn't." As noted above, the hardest game for me to pick on Georgia’s schedule was the Florida game, which I see as pretty evenly matched, particularly with both teams entering off a bye week again.
General predictions
-While the SEC West appears to have the two best teams in the conference (and the East has the two worst), I think this is the year the East begins to catch up. I’ve got three SEC West teams (Auburn, Arkansas, and Texas A&M) poised to go 6-6 (3-5), with round-robin victories over one another to really muddy the waters. In the East, meanwhile, I’ve got four teams going better than 6-6.
-I think Alabama’s going to the playoff again, although LSU could theoretically shake things up. Speaking of the Bayou Bengals, LSU is at least going to a “Big Six” bowl game. With three SEC teams (South Carolina, Missouri, and Mississippi State) probably failing to reach bowl eligibility, that’ll ratchet up every bowl-eligible team’s placement. I’m kind of rolling the dice by predicting Georgia to the Cotton Bowl, as that bowl game has been allergic to us for years, but it would kind of make sense for us to wind up there at 8-4 or 9-3 after all those Outback Bowls. Remember, the bowl pecking order isn’t what it once was; the Cotton is now officially on the same tier as the Outback, TaxSlayer, and Citrus in years when it doesn’t host the playoff. Kind of. It’s a weird, opaque system.
-The ACC could place two teams in the playoff. I’m not sold on Clemson’s ability to go 11-1 or better, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If that happens, a 10-2 ACC team will find its way into the Orange Bowl. If not, North Carolina is probably TaxSlayer Bowl-bound. Unless…
-Here’s an unpalatable possibility (for me, at least): Georgia could play Miami in the TaxSlayer Bowl. I think that’s far more likely than both Georgia and Miami falling to the Music City Bowl, which is realistically the only other bowl game that could pair those two teams outside of the playoff. Here’s why:
-Miami’s going no worse than 8-4 this season, and they could easily go 10-2. They return ten starters on offense (including an excellent QB and all five starting offensive linemen) and nine starters on defense (including a potentially dominant defense line, now coached by the former Missouri DL coach). Miami has their bye week in September, and they face a tough stretch starting in mid-October: Florida State, North Carolina, at Virginia Tech (five days after UNC), at Notre Dame, Pittsburgh. This looks like a probable 9-3 team to me.
Random observations
-I think Ole Miss has the toughest schedule of any of our opponents, followed by Tennessee.
-Georgia Southern plays three of our opponents this season. This may be of interest to some of you and/or your family members.
-All of Kentucky’s opponents this season feature some shade of red and/or yellow in their school colors. (I’m really reaching here.)
-Florida is Georgia’s only opponent to face us coming off a bye week – and that’s our bye week, too.
-In addition to being UNC’s season opener, we’re also Nicholls State’s first opponent of the year. That doesn’t happen very often, being two teams’ first opponent.
-As alluded to repeatedly in my team-by-team predictions, I can’t recall any season in which so many of Georgia’s opponents were abject mysteries to predict. In my view, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Florida, UL-Lafayette, Vanderbilt, and UNC are all programs in transition. They’re coming off uncharacteristically bad seasons or unexpectedly good ones, they’re replacing multiple coaches and/or key starters, they’re welcoming back former starters after long-term injuries, etc. With that in mind, I have a feeling my predictions are going to be weaker than they were in years past. Back when I did these every season, I got pretty good at them (to the point where I was beating Vegas; if only I had money to gamble). But this year, I’m not as confident as I once was.
At any rate, that’s what I’ve got. Obviously, this post is intended to spark debate; I welcome your comments. I seriously doubt anybody’s going to agree with my predictions for every team on our schedule, and I’d like to hear your rationale for why I’m right or wrong.
Thanks for your time, and GO DAWGS!
-- 00 Dawg
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