Biden led trump 52-42 in October 2020 polls. Hillary 47-42 in 2016….

[-lowcountrydawg]

Biden won by the skin of his teeth in 2020.

Trump is ahead now by several points. Given the historical total miss on Trump and polls, is he really only up a couple points?

Have pollsters adjusted?

 

[Athens is Heaven]

Biden won by the skin of his teeth in 2020.

Trump is ahead now by several points. Given the historical total miss on Trump and polls, is he really only up a couple points?

Have pollsters adjusted?

They are going to let Biden make a miracle move up so he will either be leading Trump or even with him. All of this is due to the money the Dems have raised vs the Republicans. I really don’t think money is going to be a factor. People know what both candidates are doing and have done for the country. I think most people have made up their minds about who is the best candidate to lead our country. I is probably the independents that they will have to fight for.

 

[Eastmandawg]

Biden won by the skin of his teeth in 2020.

Trump is ahead now by several points. Given the historical total miss on Trump and polls, is he really only up a couple points?

Have pollsters adjusted?

If the polls are a good indicator, it’s reasonable to say the the “silent majority” vote will make even more of a difference for Trump.

Thinks there are quite a few out there as before, probably even more.

As long as something crazy doesn’t happen, he wins imo.

Vegas still likes him:

https://www.vegasinsider.com/odds/us-presidential-election/

 

[-lowcountrydawg]

They are going to let Biden make a miracle move up so he will either be leading Trump or even with him. All of this is due to the money the Dems have raised vs the Republicans. I really don’t think money is going to be a factor. People know what both candidates are doing and have done for the country. I think most people have made up their minds about who is the best candidate to lead our country. I is probably the independents that they will have to fight for.

That’s my theory. Typically an incumbent versus newcomer dynamic. Meaning new info can move the needle.

Also given all the baggage Trump already brings and everyone knows about, is there an outcome in these trials that truly moves the needle against him? He seems more immune to an Octobe surprise than most.

 

[MaitlandFloridaDawg]

That’s my theory. Typically an incumbent versus newcomer dynamic. Meaning new info can move the needle.

Also given all the baggage Trump already brings and everyone knows about, is there an outcome in these trials that truly moves the needle against him? He seems more immune to an Octobe surprise than most.

I suspect it will be close. Most polls at the midterms had the Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress with big gains in the House, and the dems kept control of the Senate with the pubs barely taking the House.

 

[poorpreacher]

I think the polls showing Trump leading are simply a scare tactic of the left.

"Oh no! The country is in trouble! Trump may win" kind of thing.

The left loves fear.

 

[-lowcountrydawg]

I suspect it will be close. Most polls at the midterms had the Republicans taking control of both houses of congresses with big gains in the House, and the dems kept control of the Senate with the pubs barely taking the house.

Midterm turnout is about republicans….not Trump. When he’s on the ballot it is a different deal.

 

[poorpreacher]

I suspect it will be close. Most polls at the midterms had the Republicans taking control of both houses of congresses with big gains in the House, and the dems kept control of the Senate with the pubs barely taking the house.

I think the midterm was more about bad Republican candidates than anything.

Republicans have an uphill climb in any election. But Dr. Oz and H. Walker didn't inspire confidence.

Granted Fetterman was a bad candidate for the dems too.....But it takes a B+ Republican to beat a D- Democrat. Oz was a D+.

Walker vs Warnock?

Walker stood no chance against a social justice warrior pastor.

 

[OriginalGatorHator]

I think the midterm was more about bad Republican candidates than anything.

Republicans have an uphill climb in any election. But Dr. Oz and H. Walker didn't inspire confidence.

Granted Fetterman was a bad candidate for the dems too.....But it takes a B+ Republican to beat a D- Democrat. Oz was a D+.

Walker vs Warnock?

Walker stood no chance against a social justice warrior pastor.

Herschel and Oz were both bad candidates, true.

But despite knowing what the two main hurdles facing republican candidates are (1) the media and (2) the democrats get out of the vote machine. Republicans have sat around and done nothing about (2) for four years.

Obviously there is no solving the media issue but where is Trump’s plan to get his people to the polls?

Trump is going to lose not because of mean tweets or abortion. He’s going to lose because the Republican Party has no plan to get John Smith, welder form Wisconsin, at the poll on Election Day.

This is also why Fetterman and Warnock won btw.

Meanwhile the democrats have a well oiled machine getting its constituents (including illegals and dead people) to vote.

 

[agentorange70]

Since COVID, 23 states are now mail-in vote states,...which is to mean since the Democratic party is now the billionaire party and will outspend it's rival greatly, they will focus tremendously on getting the apathetic voters to vote Biden with a month to work with and no need to get the voter inspired enough to leave their house to vote,...in states where you have to show up, they will charter a bus to pick you up,...

The Republicans depend on ideas and passion to get their voters to travel to the voting booths

So whereas the medias public shaming of trump and Republicans created incorrect polls in the past,..I think moving forward,...polls will be incorrect in the opposite manner by not accounting for the change in local voting laws in which money will sway apathetic voters in those final 30 days of voting

 

[kckd]

They are going to let Biden make a miracle move up so he will either be leading Trump or even with him. All of this is due to the money the Dems have raised vs the Republicans. I really don’t think money is going to be a factor. People know what both candidates are doing and have done for the country. I think most people have made up their minds about who is the best candidate to lead our country. I is probably the independents that they will have to fight for.

They