Okay Dawgs, this is my favorite time of the year, and I'll take my stab at what I think is right. By now you've seen the rankings. I believe 1-13 are in play for the playoff. #14 LSU has an outside chance, but I don't think they're a real player right now. That could change this weekend, but they'd still need a tremendous amount of help that doesn't seem to be out there this year.
1-Ohio St
2-Georgia
3-Michigan
4-FSU
5-Washington
6-Oregon
7-Texas
8-Bama
9-OU
10-Ole Miss
11-PSU
12-Mizzou
13-Louisville
1-6 - Bucks, Dawgs, GoBlue, FSU, UDub & Ducks all control their destiny. Undefeated conference champ and they're in, and there's only 4 conferences with an undefeated. So, it's a no-brainer. Oregon is the only 1-loss with a clear path to knock out one of the undefeated teams in front of them with no complication.
Texas & OU need some help. Obviously, they need one of those undefeated teams to lose, and losing in their conference championship game would be best probably. Not necessity, but it would be better. I think the tricky one could be FSU. If FSU dropped one to Miami and went 12-1 to win ACC, Texas could avenge their loss and jump and they have that really great win over Bama.
Bama needs help. Conventional wisdom says, "Oh, win out, especially beating 12-0 UGA and they're in. Not necessarily. If OSU/Mich winner wins out, UDub and FSU win out and Texas wins out, it's going to be tough for Bama to get in no matter what they do. There's just no way they get in over an undefeated team and there's no way they get in over Texas who handled them in their own backyard. And, the Horns would have avenged their only loss. Isn't it great they Tide have to scoreboard watch?
Ole Miss needs some help. They could go 11-1 and not win their division, first of all. They'd need a fair amount of chaos to get in that way. Possible, but not probable. Would be better for them win out and then have Bama lose to LSU and Auburn. They could beat us twice. Not likely, but no one would have 2 wins like that. They need a lot of help because they're behind the 8-ball in their division and play #1 on the road. Plus, they've got A&M this week.
Penn St. is an outlier. What happens if they go 11-1 and Mich beats Ohio St. and thei're all 11-1? Is there a tie-break path they get into the B1G champ game? Or, they could have some thing crazy happen, like beat Mich., but somehow Ohio St. loses to someone else, too. Or 11-1 Ohio St. wins the tie-break but has a colossal upset in the B1G game. Could 11-1 Penn St. slip in? Like Ole Miss, it would take a little chaos, but perhaps not as much.
Mizzou needs to win out and I think they're in, but maybe not. They don't have the Texas hang up like Bama, and they'd have a win on #1's field. There's a scenario they go 12-1 and finish 5 behind a 12-1 Big 12 champ.
Louisville needs to win out and probably have something implode in a conference. They probably don't get in over 12-1 Tx/OU, so they'd need something to happen there or something wacky to happen in the Pac12.
Here's the deal: if you go 12-1 as a P5 champion, you are *almost* always going to get in, but it could be tricky this year. Still, usually every year we have more upsets coming. The last few years, we haven't had ENOUGH 12-1 conf champs, which is how Cincy, UGA and last year Ohio St. got in.
My preference (that's reasonable):
1 UGA
2 OU
3 Penn St.
4 Louisville
That is the worst feasible 3 we could play. There would need to be a little chaos, but not that much. Those teams just need to win out and for there to be a Pac12 implosion, which seems to always happen.
Go Dawgs! Keep Chopping! Beat Mizzou!
1-Ohio St
2-Georgia
3-Michigan
4-FSU
5-Washington
6-Oregon
7-Texas
8-Bama
9-OU
10-Ole Miss
11-PSU
12-Mizzou
13-Louisville
1-6 - Bucks, Dawgs, GoBlue, FSU, UDub & Ducks all control their destiny. Undefeated conference champ and they're in, and there's only 4 conferences with an undefeated. So, it's a no-brainer. Oregon is the only 1-loss with a clear path to knock out one of the undefeated teams in front of them with no complication.
Texas & OU need some help. Obviously, they need one of those undefeated teams to lose, and losing in their conference championship game would be best probably. Not necessity, but it would be better. I think the tricky one could be FSU. If FSU dropped one to Miami and went 12-1 to win ACC, Texas could avenge their loss and jump and they have that really great win over Bama.
Bama needs help. Conventional wisdom says, "Oh, win out, especially beating 12-0 UGA and they're in. Not necessarily. If OSU/Mich winner wins out, UDub and FSU win out and Texas wins out, it's going to be tough for Bama to get in no matter what they do. There's just no way they get in over an undefeated team and there's no way they get in over Texas who handled them in their own backyard. And, the Horns would have avenged their only loss. Isn't it great they Tide have to scoreboard watch?
Ole Miss needs some help. They could go 11-1 and not win their division, first of all. They'd need a fair amount of chaos to get in that way. Possible, but not probable. Would be better for them win out and then have Bama lose to LSU and Auburn. They could beat us twice. Not likely, but no one would have 2 wins like that. They need a lot of help because they're behind the 8-ball in their division and play #1 on the road. Plus, they've got A&M this week.
Penn St. is an outlier. What happens if they go 11-1 and Mich beats Ohio St. and thei're all 11-1? Is there a tie-break path they get into the B1G champ game? Or, they could have some thing crazy happen, like beat Mich., but somehow Ohio St. loses to someone else, too. Or 11-1 Ohio St. wins the tie-break but has a colossal upset in the B1G game. Could 11-1 Penn St. slip in? Like Ole Miss, it would take a little chaos, but perhaps not as much.
Mizzou needs to win out and I think they're in, but maybe not. They don't have the Texas hang up like Bama, and they'd have a win on #1's field. There's a scenario they go 12-1 and finish 5 behind a 12-1 Big 12 champ.
Louisville needs to win out and probably have something implode in a conference. They probably don't get in over 12-1 Tx/OU, so they'd need something to happen there or something wacky to happen in the Pac12.
Here's the deal: if you go 12-1 as a P5 champion, you are *almost* always going to get in, but it could be tricky this year. Still, usually every year we have more upsets coming. The last few years, we haven't had ENOUGH 12-1 conf champs, which is how Cincy, UGA and last year Ohio St. got in.
My preference (that's reasonable):
1 UGA
2 OU
3 Penn St.
4 Louisville
That is the worst feasible 3 we could play. There would need to be a little chaos, but not that much. Those teams just need to win out and for there to be a Pac12 implosion, which seems to always happen.
Go Dawgs! Keep Chopping! Beat Mizzou!
