Various political commentary and polling data I have picked up from pod cast this week. Note this is DATA / Opinion, does not make it true.
Current Polling by 3 of the bettering polling operations
Data that can NOT be correct if polling above is correct
Intentional bad polling in battle ground states now is for turnout and help Senate and House races, Dems more likely NOT to vote if they think they will lose, Pubs likely to vote either way
Intentional bad polling method at this point is to leave the overall splits the same(pubs / dems / independents) but to poll higher % of females and not disclose in methodology - Oriley and a Podcaster mentioned this so that rumor is out there
Popular Vote VS Electoral College
Consider this if Trump wins
Again, this came from a variety of Pod-Cast and polling data. Don’t think any of these comments or opinions are outrageous but does not make them 100% factual either.
Current Polling by 3 of the bettering polling operations
- Fox - Harris plus 2%
- Times Sirena – tied @ 47%
- Rasumessen 3 week average – Trump plus 1.75%
Data that can NOT be correct if polling above is correct
- Harris up 6% in August
- Trump getting 20% of black vote
- Trump getting 51% of Latino vote
Intentional bad polling in battle ground states now is for turnout and help Senate and House races, Dems more likely NOT to vote if they think they will lose, Pubs likely to vote either way
Intentional bad polling method at this point is to leave the overall splits the same(pubs / dems / independents) but to poll higher % of females and not disclose in methodology - Oriley and a Podcaster mentioned this so that rumor is out there
Popular Vote VS Electoral College
- Trump 49.50% or more of popular Vote – comfortable electoral college win
- Trump 48.75% to 49.49% of popular Vote – slim electoral college win
- Trump 47% to 48.74% - toss up
- Trump less than 47% - Harris popular and electoral win
Consider this if Trump wins
1-3 more picks for Supreme Court
- ABC will most likely face a congressional / inquiry regardless if whistle blower comes forward -both moderators in front of Congress
- 2 Judges in NY and 3 DA’s are certainly going to face inquiries and IRS audits
- 50 plus Former intelligence officials will lose all of their clearances and income of any type from Military or Federal Contracts
- Joint Chief of Staff , FBI Director and Chairmen of Fed are all fired
- If you don’t think 2 is a big deal, Mark Zuckerberg is COMPETLY sitting out the 2024 election cycle rumored to be because he did not want anymore congressional inquiries
- If Harris Wins
- 1-2 more picks for Supreme Court
- Trump is either going to jail, being in court constantly or continuing to pay multi millions in fines and court cost.
- So yes, expect several October surprises – mud and dirt being slung by both candidates
Again, this came from a variety of Pod-Cast and polling data. Don’t think any of these comments or opinions are outrageous but does not make them 100% factual either.