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Good Polling data and comments / opinions gathered this week from Pod Cast and Etc

DawgWCK

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Various political commentary and polling data I have picked up from pod cast this week. Note this is DATA / Opinion, does not make it true.

Current Polling by 3 of the bettering polling operations
  • Fox - Harris plus 2%
  • Times Sirena – tied @ 47%
  • Rasumessen 3 week average – Trump plus 1.75%
Note – I THINK these 3 try to get the national polls correct, just slightly different methodology

Data that can NOT be correct if polling above is correct
  • Harris up 6% in August
  • Trump getting 20% of black vote
  • Trump getting 51% of Latino vote
Intentional bad polls in August were to get $$ rolling back in Harris Campaign

Intentional bad polling in battle ground states now is for turnout and help Senate and House races, Dems more likely NOT to vote if they think they will lose, Pubs likely to vote either way

Intentional bad polling method at this point is to leave the overall splits the same(pubs / dems / independents) but to poll higher % of females and not disclose in methodology - Oriley and a Podcaster mentioned this so that rumor is out there

Popular Vote VS Electoral College
  • Trump 49.50% or more of popular Vote – comfortable electoral college win
  • Trump 48.75% to 49.49% of popular Vote – slim electoral college win
  • Trump 47% to 48.74% - toss up
  • Trump less than 47% - Harris popular and electoral win
Expect an October surprise of some type – race just to close and too many stakes
Consider this if Trump wins
1-3 more picks for Supreme Court​
  • ABC will most likely face a congressional / inquiry regardless if whistle blower comes forward -both moderators in front of Congress
  • 2 Judges in NY and 3 DA’s are certainly going to face inquiries and IRS audits
  • 50 plus Former intelligence officials will lose all of their clearances and income of any type from Military or Federal Contracts
  • Joint Chief of Staff , FBI Director and Chairmen of Fed are all fired
  • If you don’t think 2 is a big deal, Mark Zuckerberg is COMPETLY sitting out the 2024 election cycle rumored to be because he did not want anymore congressional inquiries

  • If Harris Wins
  • 1-2 more picks for Supreme Court
  • Trump is either going to jail, being in court constantly or continuing to pay multi millions in fines and court cost.

  • So yes, expect several October surprises – mud and dirt being slung by both candidates


Again, this came from a variety of Pod-Cast and polling data. Don’t think any of these comments or opinions are outrageous but does not make them 100% factual either.
 
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Various political commentary and polling data I have picked up from pod cast this week. Note this is DATA / Opinion, does not make it true.

Current Polling by 3 of the bettering polling operations
  • Fox - Harris plus 2%
  • Times Sirena – tied @ 47%
  • Rasumessen 3 week average – Trump plus 1.75%
Note – I THINK these 3 try to get the national polls correct, just slightly different methodology

Data that can NOT be correct if polling above is correct
  • Harris up 6% in August
  • Trump getting 20% of black vote
  • Trump getting 51% of Latino vote
Intentional bad polls in August were to get $$ rolling back in Harris Campaign

Intentional bad polling in battle ground states now is for turnout and help Senate and House races, Dems more likely NOT to vote if they think they will lose, Pubs likely to vote either way

Intentional bad polling method at this point is to leave the overall splits the same(pubs / dems / independents) but to poll higher % of females and not disclose in methodology - Oriley and a Podcaster mentioned this so that rumor is out there

Popular Vote VS Electoral College
  • Trump 49.50% or more of popular Vote – comfortable electoral college win
  • Trump 48.75% to 49.49% of popular Vote – slim electoral college win
  • Trump 47% to 48.74% - toss up
  • Trump less than 47% - Harris popular and electoral win
Expect an October surprise of some type – race just to close and too many stakes
Consider this if Trump wins
1-3 more picks for Supreme Court​
  • ABC will most likely face a congressional / inquiry regardless if whistle blower comes forward -both moderators in front of Congress
  • 2 Judges in NY and 3 DA’s are certainly going to face inquiries and IRS audits
  • 50 plus Former intelligence officials will lose all of their clearances and income of any type from Military or Federal Contracts
  • Joint Chief of Staff , FBI Director and Chairmen of Fed are all fired
  • If you don’t think 2 is a big deal, Mark Zuckerberg is COMPETLY sitting out the 2024 election cycle rumored to be because he did not want anymore congressional inquiries

  • If Harris Wins
  • 1-2 more picks for Supreme Court
  • Trump is either going to jail, being in court constantly or continuing to pay multi millions in fines and court cost.

  • So yes, expect several October surprises – mud and dirt being slung by both candidates


Again, this came from a variety of Pod-Cast and polling data. Don’t think any of these comments or opinions are outrageous but does not make them 100% factual either.
This is how they have intentionally skewed the polling. The polling services are intentionally oversampling women. They know that statistically women are more likely to vote Harris because of gender and abortion. So, they have been targeting Republican women. So, when they say the sampling was 48-49 republican/democrat it looks to be a fair and valid poll.

Erickson on the radio say that his sources inside the Harris campaign think PA is already lost for them. If Trump takes PA, GA and NC it's a done deal. NC is shaky so he may have to pull another state just in case.

Right now I would give Trump about a 60% chance of winning. The polling after the debates actually hurt her with undecided. I know we all expect the October surprises, but if they are about Trump people will not believe them. They have been lied to so many times at this point. More likely it would garner him more sympathy just like all the criminal charges.
 
Various political commentary and polling data I have picked up from pod cast this week. Note this is DATA / Opinion, does not make it true.

Current Polling by 3 of the bettering polling operations
  • Fox - Harris plus 2%
  • Times Sirena – tied @ 47%
  • Rasumessen 3 week average – Trump plus 1.75%
Note – I THINK these 3 try to get the national polls correct, just slightly different methodology

Data that can NOT be correct if polling above is correct
  • Harris up 6% in August
  • Trump getting 20% of black vote
  • Trump getting 51% of Latino vote
Intentional bad polls in August were to get $$ rolling back in Harris Campaign

Intentional bad polling in battle ground states now is for turnout and help Senate and House races, Dems more likely NOT to vote if they think they will lose, Pubs likely to vote either way

Intentional bad polling method at this point is to leave the overall splits the same(pubs / dems / independents) but to poll higher % of females and not disclose in methodology - Oriley and a Podcaster mentioned this so that rumor is out there

Popular Vote VS Electoral College
  • Trump 49.50% or more of popular Vote – comfortable electoral college win
  • Trump 48.75% to 49.49% of popular Vote – slim electoral college win
  • Trump 47% to 48.74% - toss up
  • Trump less than 47% - Harris popular and electoral win
Expect an October surprise of some type – race just to close and too many stakes
Consider this if Trump wins
1-3 more picks for Supreme Court​
  • ABC will most likely face a congressional / inquiry regardless if whistle blower comes forward -both moderators in front of Congress
  • 2 Judges in NY and 3 DA’s are certainly going to face inquiries and IRS audits
  • 50 plus Former intelligence officials will lose all of their clearances and income of any type from Military or Federal Contracts
  • Joint Chief of Staff , FBI Director and Chairmen of Fed are all fired
  • If you don’t think 2 is a big deal, Mark Zuckerberg is COMPETLY sitting out the 2024 election cycle rumored to be because he did not want anymore congressional inquiries

  • If Harris Wins
  • 1-2 more picks for Supreme Court
  • Trump is either going to jail, being in court constantly or continuing to pay multi millions in fines and court cost.

  • So yes, expect several October surprises – mud and dirt being slung by both candidates


Again, this came from a variety of Pod-Cast and polling data. Don’t think any of these comments or opinions are outrageous but does not make them 100% factual either.
Here is a great read on how the pollsters are getting it wrong. Partly because it's just much more expensive to poll in the current climate.

 
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Here is a great read on how the pollsters are getting it wrong. Partly because it's just much more expensive to poll in the current climate.

I scanned it, understand the premise, but difficult to fully understand. In fairness to all the pollsters, this would be a hard one to handicap, couple that with ones intentionally trying to be bias and who know what the results will be.
 
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I scanned it, understand the premise, but difficult to fully understand. In fairness to all the pollsters, this would be a hard one to handicap, couple that with ones intentionally trying to be bias and who know what the results will be.
I said earlier and the usual crowd scoffed at me but I am seeing a very similar scenario as 2016. People don't want to be hassled because they are voting for Trump but they just don't like Harris, just like Hillary. Throw in the fact she cannot describe any sort of policy. At least Hillary was able to verbalize a plan, even if it wasn't good.
They want Harris to not say anything and be blank slate just like Obama was, but independents/undecideds aren't buying it.
 
Trust the collegiate polls if you are going to trust polls at all:

09-19-2024 New Emerson College Polling/The Hill surveys of likely voters in seven critical swing states find former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck in the 2024 presidential election. In Georgia, 50% support Trump, 47% Harris. In Arizona and Wisconsin, 49% support Trump, 48% support Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump, 47% Harris. In Nevada, the candidates are tied with 48% support each. In North Carolina, 49% support Harris, 48% Trump. In Michigan, 49% support Harris, 47% support Trump.
 
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