Some predictions are starting to show up on some national sites so I wanted to re-iterate some points i made this summer.
We lost fifteen games last year. Seven games last year by double figures. Three of those games by 14 and four others by 10. I believe we had a shot in all of those games until the last 6-8 minutes.
I know we lost two for sure and maybe three games primarily due to CMW's decisions. Mostly involving the D. That is problematic for me, but overall I felt he did about a B- on the season as we got better as the year progressed. A lack of depth limited our options for sure.
There were several main reasons we lost:
1 ) the other teams had considerably more talent in the games we lost by double digits.
2 ) we were outrebounded by a lot, in most of our losses, on both ends.
3) Our outside game was erratic, inconsistent and limited to basically three options
4 ) Our inside scoring was just as inconsistent and we had few easy opportunities as a team.
5) Our individual and team D was good to average and below at times. Again too inconsistent. See coaching.
We also shot fts poorly and turned it too much over at times, but those were not killers often.
Several reasons we will be above average in the sec and dance: ( without knowing the true strength of sec teams this season, but by all accounts the league is somewhat stronger overall )
Without the stat sheets in front of me I would guess, on average, we gave up 3-4 offensive rebound buckets per game. Throw in fts with many and you're looking at about 10 ppg. many O rebounds led to open 3s. That will not be the case this year and will score often off O boards. We will be + in that category.
Our outside shooting will be much improved with multiple options. My guess is at least 9+ ppg points over last year.
Better outside shooting will allow our inside guys room to work and work they can. We have at least five bigs that can score in multiple ways inside. 10+ ppg. Throw in our slashing guards and that's 6+ ppg.
FTs are a question mark at this point.
We will be much stronger on D overall due to our guards being able to play their man tougher because of our shotblockers inside. We will block a lot of shots inside. Easy buckets will be at a minimum. And we will be much more athletic allowing for more pressure D. Our defensive rebounding will afford many more break opportunities this year. Our improved D is worth 8-10 ppg.
Of course these are all variable game to game. And as I said I can only make an educated guess on conference strength based on last year and what I hear about the sec this year. So my instincts tell me we are 20-25 ppg better as a team than last year. If the rest of the conference has improved 10-15 ppg that yields, imo, 10-15 ppg swing in our favor most games. So based on all the above I feel like we will win somewhere around 12 conference games. We should have a eight seed or better for the dance.
We lost fifteen games last year. Seven games last year by double figures. Three of those games by 14 and four others by 10. I believe we had a shot in all of those games until the last 6-8 minutes.
I know we lost two for sure and maybe three games primarily due to CMW's decisions. Mostly involving the D. That is problematic for me, but overall I felt he did about a B- on the season as we got better as the year progressed. A lack of depth limited our options for sure.
There were several main reasons we lost:
1 ) the other teams had considerably more talent in the games we lost by double digits.
2 ) we were outrebounded by a lot, in most of our losses, on both ends.
3) Our outside game was erratic, inconsistent and limited to basically three options
4 ) Our inside scoring was just as inconsistent and we had few easy opportunities as a team.
5) Our individual and team D was good to average and below at times. Again too inconsistent. See coaching.
We also shot fts poorly and turned it too much over at times, but those were not killers often.
Several reasons we will be above average in the sec and dance: ( without knowing the true strength of sec teams this season, but by all accounts the league is somewhat stronger overall )
Without the stat sheets in front of me I would guess, on average, we gave up 3-4 offensive rebound buckets per game. Throw in fts with many and you're looking at about 10 ppg. many O rebounds led to open 3s. That will not be the case this year and will score often off O boards. We will be + in that category.
Our outside shooting will be much improved with multiple options. My guess is at least 9+ ppg points over last year.
Better outside shooting will allow our inside guys room to work and work they can. We have at least five bigs that can score in multiple ways inside. 10+ ppg. Throw in our slashing guards and that's 6+ ppg.
FTs are a question mark at this point.
We will be much stronger on D overall due to our guards being able to play their man tougher because of our shotblockers inside. We will block a lot of shots inside. Easy buckets will be at a minimum. And we will be much more athletic allowing for more pressure D. Our defensive rebounding will afford many more break opportunities this year. Our improved D is worth 8-10 ppg.
Of course these are all variable game to game. And as I said I can only make an educated guess on conference strength based on last year and what I hear about the sec this year. So my instincts tell me we are 20-25 ppg better as a team than last year. If the rest of the conference has improved 10-15 ppg that yields, imo, 10-15 ppg swing in our favor most games. So based on all the above I feel like we will win somewhere around 12 conference games. We should have a eight seed or better for the dance.
