There is no doubt the way they measure CPI, specifically OER....is ridiculously archaic, especially when we have access to truly real-time data on rents with zillow, property management companies publishing rents online, redfin, etc.....multifamily REIT reporting, etc.
In addition to using surveys, the rent changes are only picked up as leases turn over, creating a 12 month lag. Contributed to the fed being late on adjusting policy to inflation.....and it has absolutely contributed to the fed being late on cutting rates, as cpi has been overstating rent increases for 18 months. Truth is that rents on new leases have been lower or flat for two years....especially in the sunbelt.
What you'll see now is rents go up, beginning this summer, as the effect of higher rates on the construction of new apartments is finally taking effect. We will go from peak(historically high) new supply of apartments in 2Q24 to historically low deliveries in late 2025 through 2026....and you can't just wave a wand and start delivering units. Planning, entitlements, permitting, design, capitalization.....this takes a long time, and then it takes 22-24 months to actually build the project. Bottom line - rents will sky-rocket again, but the cpi won't pick it up.
CPI should now benefit from the lag effect of flat or lower rents......bringing the average down in coming months. The fed says they take into account the real-time data, but their policy seems to remain focused on the archaic cpi data.