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Keith Law on Condon

PapaSweetsDawg

Emotional Hedge Fund Manager
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Aug 25, 2003
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Condon is easily the top prospect in this year’s draft class, and would be challenging for the top spot in many years — perhaps not 2023, but I wouldn’t rule it out, given the unbelievable year he’s had and the growth potential he may still have ahead of him. If you know Condon’s name, it may be because he set the modern record for homers in a single season, with the most home runs of any player since the NCAA switched to BBCOR bats in 2012, reducing exit velocities for safety and, I think, to make the college game look a little more like real baseball.

Condon does have power, but he’s a more complete player than that one stat alone implies. He changed his hand position after the summer of 2023, starting them a little higher, and that small adjustment completely loosened him up at the plate. He has explosive bat speed and now gets the bat to the zone with more force behind it because he’s so direct to the ball once he loads his hands. It’s hard to imagine more power coming, but Condon’s a lean, wiry 6-foot-6 and could get quite a bit stronger in pro ball. He also doesn’t swing and miss often or chase excessively. Even the slider down and away, a weakness for most hitters when it’s against a same-side pitcher, isn’t a huge vulnerability.

He’s a 55 runner now and capable of handling centerfield for the moment, while he’s also impressed scouts with his work at third base this spring despite a lack of any experience at the hot corner. He’ll probably start out as a third baseman and then move to the outfield if that doesn’t work out, with above-average defense in right field probably the worst-case scenario. His foundation of bat speed, plate discipline, hard contact, and athleticism point to a frequent All-Star ceiling, and they’re more than enough to make him the No. 1 prospect in this year’s class.’
 
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