As I said before, not going to post this poll every week but wanted to make a point again related to Presidential Polling.
First, couple of points directly from Rasmussen:
My take:
First, couple of points directly from Rasmussen:
- 3 week rolling average (which they consider the best measure) has Trump up in the 4% plus range nationally, very similar to Biden PRE- Debate fiasco
- They are polling +2 Demos in their sample, they are considering moving to 2.5% or 3%
- Although their final poll in 2020 showed Biden up 1% their 3 week rolling average back in 2020 had Biden up 3.5% range (Think they got a lot of bad press on their weekend poll before the election in 2020 and critics did not mention their 3 week rolling average numbers.
- They don’t like to do state to state polling as much as they say it would take months to get a good feel on trends and distribution of voters but feel very confident you can do projections to individual states based on overall national polling
- Openly questioned August Harris Polling Numbers from various polling sites and said at this point they would NOT call this election as a Toss Up and mocked the polling in swing states last weekend by the NYT’s
- Said in 2016 and 2020 their polling numbers were referenced on all networks and were asked many times to do live interviews. In 2024 cycle once Trump went up big in their Polls in May time frame their MSM references and request for interviews completely stopped. Only request they have gotten in August is from Pod-casters alike. MSM does not want to reference their polling numbers
My take:
- I think national #’s are probably closer than 4%, but fairly sure Trump is currently up Nationally and in most swing states. I think Fox had Trump up by 1%.
- Certainly appears to be some Polling INTETIONAL DISHONESTY / Election interference by many in MSM to show momentum from the Harris Campaign. This is a major issue to me that is brushed aside by many. No different than hiding stories about Hunter’s laptop.
- Apparently its bad for advertising revenue and for public appearances if you poll (perhaps even correctly Poll) that Trump is indeed winning, that in itself is troubling.
- One Poll that showed Harris up by 4% was called the Gold Standard of Polls by the Drudge Report. (Drudge Report is so Anti Trump / Pro Harris you could refer to them as Morning Joe)
- ABC referenced the NYT’s poll before playing their tapped interview with VP Candidate Vance in an attempt to throw shade on him and the current state of their campaign
- CNN and NBC also reported it several times before rolling into interviews with Senator Cotton and another segment on the state of the campaign