Curious to see where you all think we're going to land in the SEC, record wise.
I know that we're all concerned with pitching. With Wes Johnson, maybe we shouldn't be. We were much thinner as a staff last year and made it to within a few pitches of Omaha. But then, we can't just ignore what has been happening on the mound either.
It's very hard to normalize things this time of year because teams play different schedules.
Warren Nolan has our strength of schedule rated 117. I guess we went up a little bit after that East Tennessee State game. Here is where the rest of the league falls in terms of his strength of schedule rankings.
(as a quick aside, Illinois Chicago is 4, Columbia is 8, UNC Wilmington is 11, and Florida Gulf Coast is 15 - so seems like some respect is being paid to us in that manner)
Ole Miss - 49
Vanderbilt - 55
South Carolina - 87
Auburn - 94
Tennessee - 105
Dawgs - 117
Florida - 125
Alabama - 139
Arkansas - 144
Texas A&M - 145
Texas - 151
Oklahoma - 153
Miss State - 172
Kentucky - 209
Missouri - 239
LSU - 270
So, the schedule hasn't really been that light compared to the SEC. Much like last year, we are right in line with the rest of the conference. Kentucky is going to be facing a stiffer ramp up in competition this weekend than we will.
You have to be careful in looking at some of the pitching numbers, because we've played more games. We've played 20. Nobody else has played 19. A few teams have played 18. Texas has only played 15 games so far. So, just looking at bulk hits or strikeouts is misleading. Still, our ERA is 4.37, which is ahead of only Missouri. In fact, Auburn is one slot above us, and has an ERA of 3.74, more than half a run better per game.
Tennessee, which has played essentially the same schedule difficulty that we have, has an ERA if 1.77. I'm not getting into which teams have better offenses or pitching, and it's possible the strength of Tennessee's opponents has been on the mound while the strength of our opponents has been at the plate. I will say that both Florida Gulf Coast and Columbia seemed to be much stronger hitting than pitching. East Tennessee State was that same way on Tuesday. But it's also possible that Tennessee is just that much better than we are on the mound.
We do average 10.4 strikeouts per game. That puts us just behind the middle of the pack in the conference. Tennessee averages 12.1 K's per game. Other teams that average more K's per game than us are: Miss State, LSU, Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Auburn. Of the teams that average more K's than us, Tennessee has played a slightly harder schedule, and Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Auburn have all played tougher schedules.
The walk numbers are worse. We average 4.45 walks per game. Like ERA, that's the second worst in the league. Only Ole Miss averages walking more hitters per game than we do.
I didn't look at this last year, only strength of schedule a season ago. I'd love to say "but last year, we were x going into league play" but I don't know that. What I do know is that our schedule compared to the rest of the SEC has been pretty respectable, but schedule can't explain away what has happened on the mound.
Still, I believe in what I've seen. We've got some guys on the staff. I'd love to know our percentage of scoreless innings pitched this year also. We've given up some crooked numbers, but we have also put up a lot of 0's. We've had games where we give up 6 runs, but allow the opponent to score in 1-2 innings. Heck, Georgia State scored 10 against us, but we had 7 0s in the game as well. I think that's part of getting the pitched shored up - minimizing those bad innings and keeping the focus defensively. We had two careless errors in back to back weekends that opened the door for the opponent to put up a crooked number. That can be cleaned up also (and also doesn't explain away the ERA, by definition).
I've already spent longer on this than I planned. So I'll try to wrap it up. Offensively, I'm not worried about us. Everything we thought about it being a deeper lineup this year has proven correct. We won't have a guy hit 30+ HRs, but I bet Zabarowki and Burnett get to 45 between them. We're still very good at getting on base (4th highest OBP in the conference and of the three ahead of us there, only Tennessee has played a harder schedule)... and I like how much more we're running this year. You can make an argument that we are more of a headache to pitch to this year than we were last year.
So what does that mean? Where do we fall? All week I had a certain number in my head until I look at the pitching numbers relative to schedule strength. Now that number is a bit lower. But I'm still very optimistic.
18-12
I know that we're all concerned with pitching. With Wes Johnson, maybe we shouldn't be. We were much thinner as a staff last year and made it to within a few pitches of Omaha. But then, we can't just ignore what has been happening on the mound either.
It's very hard to normalize things this time of year because teams play different schedules.
Warren Nolan has our strength of schedule rated 117. I guess we went up a little bit after that East Tennessee State game. Here is where the rest of the league falls in terms of his strength of schedule rankings.
(as a quick aside, Illinois Chicago is 4, Columbia is 8, UNC Wilmington is 11, and Florida Gulf Coast is 15 - so seems like some respect is being paid to us in that manner)
Ole Miss - 49
Vanderbilt - 55
South Carolina - 87
Auburn - 94
Tennessee - 105
Dawgs - 117
Florida - 125
Alabama - 139
Arkansas - 144
Texas A&M - 145
Texas - 151
Oklahoma - 153
Miss State - 172
Kentucky - 209
Missouri - 239
LSU - 270
So, the schedule hasn't really been that light compared to the SEC. Much like last year, we are right in line with the rest of the conference. Kentucky is going to be facing a stiffer ramp up in competition this weekend than we will.
You have to be careful in looking at some of the pitching numbers, because we've played more games. We've played 20. Nobody else has played 19. A few teams have played 18. Texas has only played 15 games so far. So, just looking at bulk hits or strikeouts is misleading. Still, our ERA is 4.37, which is ahead of only Missouri. In fact, Auburn is one slot above us, and has an ERA of 3.74, more than half a run better per game.
Tennessee, which has played essentially the same schedule difficulty that we have, has an ERA if 1.77. I'm not getting into which teams have better offenses or pitching, and it's possible the strength of Tennessee's opponents has been on the mound while the strength of our opponents has been at the plate. I will say that both Florida Gulf Coast and Columbia seemed to be much stronger hitting than pitching. East Tennessee State was that same way on Tuesday. But it's also possible that Tennessee is just that much better than we are on the mound.
We do average 10.4 strikeouts per game. That puts us just behind the middle of the pack in the conference. Tennessee averages 12.1 K's per game. Other teams that average more K's per game than us are: Miss State, LSU, Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Auburn. Of the teams that average more K's than us, Tennessee has played a slightly harder schedule, and Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Auburn have all played tougher schedules.
The walk numbers are worse. We average 4.45 walks per game. Like ERA, that's the second worst in the league. Only Ole Miss averages walking more hitters per game than we do.
I didn't look at this last year, only strength of schedule a season ago. I'd love to say "but last year, we were x going into league play" but I don't know that. What I do know is that our schedule compared to the rest of the SEC has been pretty respectable, but schedule can't explain away what has happened on the mound.
Still, I believe in what I've seen. We've got some guys on the staff. I'd love to know our percentage of scoreless innings pitched this year also. We've given up some crooked numbers, but we have also put up a lot of 0's. We've had games where we give up 6 runs, but allow the opponent to score in 1-2 innings. Heck, Georgia State scored 10 against us, but we had 7 0s in the game as well. I think that's part of getting the pitched shored up - minimizing those bad innings and keeping the focus defensively. We had two careless errors in back to back weekends that opened the door for the opponent to put up a crooked number. That can be cleaned up also (and also doesn't explain away the ERA, by definition).
I've already spent longer on this than I planned. So I'll try to wrap it up. Offensively, I'm not worried about us. Everything we thought about it being a deeper lineup this year has proven correct. We won't have a guy hit 30+ HRs, but I bet Zabarowki and Burnett get to 45 between them. We're still very good at getting on base (4th highest OBP in the conference and of the three ahead of us there, only Tennessee has played a harder schedule)... and I like how much more we're running this year. You can make an argument that we are more of a headache to pitch to this year than we were last year.
So what does that mean? Where do we fall? All week I had a certain number in my head until I look at the pitching numbers relative to schedule strength. Now that number is a bit lower. But I'm still very optimistic.
18-12
