I have a low budget non revenue website where I pick a few games each week ATS and provide reasons. I actually picked our game this week which is something rarely done. This is what I had:
Both teams have shown they can go out and flatten a Power 4 team away from campus. Both have shown they can struggle a bit as the Tide needed a 4th quarter surge at home to finish off South Florida. The Dogs showed problems of their own with surviving by one at Kentucky when UGA was a 24 point favorite. Looking at past performances are not good indicators of what will show up Saturday night for either side. The talent level of both looks similar. Both have balanced offenses. Both have quality and depth on defense. Where I start seeing a difference is how healthy each club is. The Dogs lost starting Right Guard Tate Ratledge for six weeks. The Dogs DL has had missing pieces all season. Alabama looks to have just about everyone available. How important is this? When Tide OT Kayden Proctor was out, the Bama offense was out of sync. When Alabama got their OL starters back, scoring TDs became easier and more common. The other issue I look at is something I mention every week: QB play. Jalen Milroe of ALA looks to be playing with more confidence than Carson Beck. The other advantage of that is Milroe’s ability to run and generate plays and new sets of downs. These are the little things that can add up and lead to good things. On the other hand, the UGA OL has shown tendencies to miss a few assignments putting Beck in difficult situations. Maybe this is a reason Beck doesn’t look to have the confidence he had last season. This game is more critical for Georgia than Alabama. Why? Look at the schedules. If UGA loses here, they still have to play at Texas, at Ole Miss and a home date with Tennessee. Two losses puts them in jeopardy of being shut out of the post season 12. Three will be a nail in the coffin. There is more pressure for Georgia.
In this one, if the Dogs get the lead, Alabama has the offense to come back. If Bama gets the lead, Georgia is in trouble. This has shown to be consistent in most of the recent match ups outside of the 2021 Championship game. For some reason that I don’t know, UGA is favored by one. As the little things start adding up through the game, that is the team who wins. Alabama seems to be doing this better than the Dogs so I’ll take the point and Alabama at home.
Post game thoughts: ALA has a source of generating offense that we haven't had since Bennett was QB. Saban figured this out almost ten years ago and changed to a mobile QB with Sims, Hurts, TT13 and now Milroe. Getting 30 points was no longer enough so Nick adjusted to have something that was successful attacking his defenses which was a mobile QB. We have trouble defending this. Tonight, we got down big and became pretty much one dimensional the rest of the game. I feel better about having to defend Texas, but we could run into the same issue when UT comes around. Vols are not ALA, but they look pretty good to me right now and are a threat. I'm hoping we can bring the mobile QB back to our offense. It seems to work.
Both teams have shown they can go out and flatten a Power 4 team away from campus. Both have shown they can struggle a bit as the Tide needed a 4th quarter surge at home to finish off South Florida. The Dogs showed problems of their own with surviving by one at Kentucky when UGA was a 24 point favorite. Looking at past performances are not good indicators of what will show up Saturday night for either side. The talent level of both looks similar. Both have balanced offenses. Both have quality and depth on defense. Where I start seeing a difference is how healthy each club is. The Dogs lost starting Right Guard Tate Ratledge for six weeks. The Dogs DL has had missing pieces all season. Alabama looks to have just about everyone available. How important is this? When Tide OT Kayden Proctor was out, the Bama offense was out of sync. When Alabama got their OL starters back, scoring TDs became easier and more common. The other issue I look at is something I mention every week: QB play. Jalen Milroe of ALA looks to be playing with more confidence than Carson Beck. The other advantage of that is Milroe’s ability to run and generate plays and new sets of downs. These are the little things that can add up and lead to good things. On the other hand, the UGA OL has shown tendencies to miss a few assignments putting Beck in difficult situations. Maybe this is a reason Beck doesn’t look to have the confidence he had last season. This game is more critical for Georgia than Alabama. Why? Look at the schedules. If UGA loses here, they still have to play at Texas, at Ole Miss and a home date with Tennessee. Two losses puts them in jeopardy of being shut out of the post season 12. Three will be a nail in the coffin. There is more pressure for Georgia.
In this one, if the Dogs get the lead, Alabama has the offense to come back. If Bama gets the lead, Georgia is in trouble. This has shown to be consistent in most of the recent match ups outside of the 2021 Championship game. For some reason that I don’t know, UGA is favored by one. As the little things start adding up through the game, that is the team who wins. Alabama seems to be doing this better than the Dogs so I’ll take the point and Alabama at home.
Post game thoughts: ALA has a source of generating offense that we haven't had since Bennett was QB. Saban figured this out almost ten years ago and changed to a mobile QB with Sims, Hurts, TT13 and now Milroe. Getting 30 points was no longer enough so Nick adjusted to have something that was successful attacking his defenses which was a mobile QB. We have trouble defending this. Tonight, we got down big and became pretty much one dimensional the rest of the game. I feel better about having to defend Texas, but we could run into the same issue when UT comes around. Vols are not ALA, but they look pretty good to me right now and are a threat. I'm hoping we can bring the mobile QB back to our offense. It seems to work.
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