We'd likely be an 11-seed with a loss this week and would then face the Big 10 loser (probably PSU). That's a favorable bracket if you get past game 1.
Why would we drop 6 spots if we're projected at 5 this week? Well, two conference champs ranked below us will move into the top 4 as auto seeds. Then, with the third loss, we would likely fall behind Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana. I would also expect the Big 12 champ to skate by us (more wins plus conference championship) if they haven't already gotten an auto seed.
Another interesting thing: if Clemson wins, which many seem to want, that may push us up to a 10 seed, which is where we do NOT want to be, because Clemson would likely be 11 and SMU 12. If we lose on Saturday, our choice could be: (1) a Clemson win and No Bama, which would then require a road game against tOSU or Tennessee, or (2) a Clemson loss and Bama sneaks in but we get a more favorable playoff bracket by dropping down a spot. Pick your poison.
If we win Saturday, we get a thurd game against Texas, tOSU or Tennessee in the QFs (if chalk holds).
1. Big 10 winner
2. SEC Champ
3 and 4: two of ACC Champ (if SMU), MW
Champ (if Boise) and Big 12 Champ
5. Notre Dame or Big 10 loser (if Oregon)
6. Big 10 loser (if PSU) or Notre Dame (if Oregon is Big 10 loser)
7. SECC loser (if Texas) or Tennessee OR Ohio State
8. Ohio State OR Tennessee
9. Tennessee OR Ohio State OR Indiana (if Texas wins SECC) OR Big 12 Champ (if SMU wins ACC and Boise wins MWC)
10. Indiana (if UGA wins SECC) OR Big 12 Champ (if SMU wins ACC and Boise wins MWC) OR SECC Loser (if UGA and only if Clemson wins ACC)
11. SECC Loser (if UGA and if SMU wins ACC) OR Clemson (if they win ACC)
12. SMU (if Clemson wins ACC) OR Bama OR Miami OR MWC Champ (if UNLV)
Why would we drop 6 spots if we're projected at 5 this week? Well, two conference champs ranked below us will move into the top 4 as auto seeds. Then, with the third loss, we would likely fall behind Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana. I would also expect the Big 12 champ to skate by us (more wins plus conference championship) if they haven't already gotten an auto seed.
Another interesting thing: if Clemson wins, which many seem to want, that may push us up to a 10 seed, which is where we do NOT want to be, because Clemson would likely be 11 and SMU 12. If we lose on Saturday, our choice could be: (1) a Clemson win and No Bama, which would then require a road game against tOSU or Tennessee, or (2) a Clemson loss and Bama sneaks in but we get a more favorable playoff bracket by dropping down a spot. Pick your poison.
If we win Saturday, we get a thurd game against Texas, tOSU or Tennessee in the QFs (if chalk holds).
1. Big 10 winner
2. SEC Champ
3 and 4: two of ACC Champ (if SMU), MW
Champ (if Boise) and Big 12 Champ
5. Notre Dame or Big 10 loser (if Oregon)
6. Big 10 loser (if PSU) or Notre Dame (if Oregon is Big 10 loser)
7. SECC loser (if Texas) or Tennessee OR Ohio State
8. Ohio State OR Tennessee
9. Tennessee OR Ohio State OR Indiana (if Texas wins SECC) OR Big 12 Champ (if SMU wins ACC and Boise wins MWC)
10. Indiana (if UGA wins SECC) OR Big 12 Champ (if SMU wins ACC and Boise wins MWC) OR SECC Loser (if UGA and only if Clemson wins ACC)
11. SECC Loser (if UGA and if SMU wins ACC) OR Clemson (if they win ACC)
12. SMU (if Clemson wins ACC) OR Bama OR Miami OR MWC Champ (if UNLV)
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