Okay, wanted to share some of my process for a team we don't see a lot of and the initial notes I have before really diving into watching Ohio State (had a huge deadline last week and took the weekend to breath for the 1st in a very long time) and picking out plays/concepts that Dayne and I will show on the FDL previews.
Process-wise, I take a look at the PFF grade data 1st. This guides where the focus needs to be outside of the obvious (Marvin Harrison Jr is really good!). Also, 2 other things:
- I understand their grades are somewhat inflated because of them compared to the rest their schedule. E.g., OSU is #1 in Overall Team grade and 4 of the top 6 in are Big 10 teams.
- It guides a little more which 4-5 games I want to watch in more detail. For example, not watching any game where Smith-Njigba played early on (Notre Dame).
In general, though, look at these kinds of things (and rarely look at traditional stats):
- Who is standing out/dominant? Is there one element of a player's game (run D vs. pass rush) that is the dominant trait?
- More importantly, though, where are the deficiencies or replacement-level play (i.e. grades in the low 60s or below)? HINT -- their CBs!
- What's the QB data in the various situations I've posted all season long (clean vs pressure, blitz, 10+, screens, etc.)?
Clean Pocket = 92.1 passing grade, 71% completion, 22 big-time throws (BTT), 8 turnover-worthy plays (TWP)
Under Pressure = 36.8 passing grade, 41% completion, 3 BTTs, 7 TWPs
Blitzed = 71.3 passing grade, 67% completion, 7 BTTs, 6 TWPs
- Which games did the QB struggle from a passing grade vs. stats perspective? Rutgers & Maryland
Next, I take a look at team & tendency data I have access to (which is basically the same database all the coaches have access to except I don't have the video attached).
- Where do they stand out?
- Play calling themes? Run vs. Pass? How much screen, play-action? Outside vs. inside zone %?
- Formational: I know they are a heavy Pistol formation team, but where does it stack up? Shot-gun %?
- Personnel groupings?
- Defensively: how much do they blitz? How often do they use simulated pressures (4 man rush but looks like a blitz)? What are their primary coverage types?
- Player tendencies: if a certain player is on the field, is basically a run tell?
Alright, now the notes:
Team stuff:
- 11 Personnel = 65%
- 21 Personnel = 18.5% (2 RBs, 1 TE) = #2 in the Power 5
- 20 Personnel = 4.4% (2 RBs, 0 TE) = #4 in the Power 5 --- So, do they have any tendencies with 2 RBs on the field? (= Yes = 70% run)
- Shotgun % = 66.5% = 53rd in the Power 5 -- any tendencies in Gun vs. Under Center? Need to see
- Pistol % = 19.3% = 11th in the Power 5 -- their Pistol outside zone game is common for them....expect UGA to schematically defend it similarly to how it defended Florida's shotgun + pistol running game.
- Screen attempts = 11.8% = 45th in the Power 5
- Run concepts = Outside Zone 41%, especially out of the pistol...same run game comment as above.
- Defensively = 28% blitz = middle of the pack in the Power 5.....BUT....they bring 5-6 rushers when they do blitz 86% of the time. Simulated pressures (blitz but only rush 4 like UGA) only 2.6%. So when they blitz, they basically play man and bring a lot of bodies.
- True man coverages (Zero or One) = 36% of the time
Some other tidbits:
- Goal-line and short yardage = they only run 2/3 of the time (UGA = 75%). Decent amount of play-action passing in those situations
- Marvin Harrison Jr (#18) and Emeka Egbuka (#2) = 63% of their team's targets
- #34 - RB Mitch Rossi (fullback) = 65% run with him on the field
- Left Guard (Jackson, #74) = better run blocker (83.0) compared to Right Guard
- Right Guard (Jones, #55) = better pass blocker (76.5) compared to Left Guard = So do we see JC88 line up on a different side on early downs vs. 3rd down?
- On conversion downs (3rd/4th), they throw Right >>>> Left...and that's obviously usually to where Harrison Jr is.
And now time to go watch them throughout the week and see if anything else stands out....
Process-wise, I take a look at the PFF grade data 1st. This guides where the focus needs to be outside of the obvious (Marvin Harrison Jr is really good!). Also, 2 other things:
- I understand their grades are somewhat inflated because of them compared to the rest their schedule. E.g., OSU is #1 in Overall Team grade and 4 of the top 6 in are Big 10 teams.
- It guides a little more which 4-5 games I want to watch in more detail. For example, not watching any game where Smith-Njigba played early on (Notre Dame).
In general, though, look at these kinds of things (and rarely look at traditional stats):
- Who is standing out/dominant? Is there one element of a player's game (run D vs. pass rush) that is the dominant trait?
- More importantly, though, where are the deficiencies or replacement-level play (i.e. grades in the low 60s or below)? HINT -- their CBs!
- What's the QB data in the various situations I've posted all season long (clean vs pressure, blitz, 10+, screens, etc.)?
Clean Pocket = 92.1 passing grade, 71% completion, 22 big-time throws (BTT), 8 turnover-worthy plays (TWP)
Under Pressure = 36.8 passing grade, 41% completion, 3 BTTs, 7 TWPs
Blitzed = 71.3 passing grade, 67% completion, 7 BTTs, 6 TWPs
- Which games did the QB struggle from a passing grade vs. stats perspective? Rutgers & Maryland
Next, I take a look at team & tendency data I have access to (which is basically the same database all the coaches have access to except I don't have the video attached).
- Where do they stand out?
- Play calling themes? Run vs. Pass? How much screen, play-action? Outside vs. inside zone %?
- Formational: I know they are a heavy Pistol formation team, but where does it stack up? Shot-gun %?
- Personnel groupings?
- Defensively: how much do they blitz? How often do they use simulated pressures (4 man rush but looks like a blitz)? What are their primary coverage types?
- Player tendencies: if a certain player is on the field, is basically a run tell?
Alright, now the notes:
Team stuff:
- 11 Personnel = 65%
- 21 Personnel = 18.5% (2 RBs, 1 TE) = #2 in the Power 5
- 20 Personnel = 4.4% (2 RBs, 0 TE) = #4 in the Power 5 --- So, do they have any tendencies with 2 RBs on the field? (= Yes = 70% run)
- Shotgun % = 66.5% = 53rd in the Power 5 -- any tendencies in Gun vs. Under Center? Need to see
- Pistol % = 19.3% = 11th in the Power 5 -- their Pistol outside zone game is common for them....expect UGA to schematically defend it similarly to how it defended Florida's shotgun + pistol running game.
- Screen attempts = 11.8% = 45th in the Power 5
- Run concepts = Outside Zone 41%, especially out of the pistol...same run game comment as above.
- Defensively = 28% blitz = middle of the pack in the Power 5.....BUT....they bring 5-6 rushers when they do blitz 86% of the time. Simulated pressures (blitz but only rush 4 like UGA) only 2.6%. So when they blitz, they basically play man and bring a lot of bodies.
- True man coverages (Zero or One) = 36% of the time
Some other tidbits:
- Goal-line and short yardage = they only run 2/3 of the time (UGA = 75%). Decent amount of play-action passing in those situations
- Marvin Harrison Jr (#18) and Emeka Egbuka (#2) = 63% of their team's targets
- #34 - RB Mitch Rossi (fullback) = 65% run with him on the field
- Left Guard (Jackson, #74) = better run blocker (83.0) compared to Right Guard
- Right Guard (Jones, #55) = better pass blocker (76.5) compared to Left Guard = So do we see JC88 line up on a different side on early downs vs. 3rd down?
- On conversion downs (3rd/4th), they throw Right >>>> Left...and that's obviously usually to where Harrison Jr is.
And now time to go watch them throughout the week and see if anything else stands out....
