I don't trust polls, which are totally dependent on how you weight turnout from different demographics, etc....notwithstanding any political bias or desired message. The one thing I do trust is that 15.1% spread on favorability.
The best predictor of turnout is the level of emotion associated with the candidates, and most importantly, the incumbent party. Even if the pollsters have appropriately adjusted for the shy trump vote or whatever you want to call it, I suspect their models haven't done much to account for the level of frustration / anger associated with the electorate that cuts across racial and economic categories. Inflation most importantly. That 15.1% says a lot. And early voting turnout from different demos support this. It is a 1980 dynamic, and in 1980 Reagan outperformed the polls by double digits. I don't expect that tomorrow, but I do think there is a good chance for a mandate-type outcome.
The best predictor of turnout is the level of emotion associated with the candidates, and most importantly, the incumbent party. Even if the pollsters have appropriately adjusted for the shy trump vote or whatever you want to call it, I suspect their models haven't done much to account for the level of frustration / anger associated with the electorate that cuts across racial and economic categories. Inflation most importantly. That 15.1% says a lot. And early voting turnout from different demos support this. It is a 1980 dynamic, and in 1980 Reagan outperformed the polls by double digits. I don't expect that tomorrow, but I do think there is a good chance for a mandate-type outcome.
