Polymarket odds as of 8/12 for presidency.

[Gfunk20]

Harris up 52%-45%. It’s no secret that the election comes down to 5 states: Mich, Wisc, Penn, Ga and Ariz.

If Dems sweep the rust belt states of Wisc, Penn and Mich, it’s over for Trump. He has to win 1 of those 3 to have a chance. That is assuming Ga and Ariz go red (which is an IF). I think both are in good shape for GOP but Trump and his team did no favors for themselves when he bashed Kemp and his wife and basically called Georgia and Atlanta a crime infested area. Bash one of the most popular governors and politicians in the state, great idea Trump and team! That’ll work out well for you! 🤦🏻‍♂️

Trump and his team have gotta find a way to get Harris out and do some press conferences. Right now, she is just avoiding anything when it comes to a live news conference. Obviously a debate will help but he needs something sooner to start swinging the momentum back to his (Trump’s campaign) because right now he doesn’t have much it feels like. People have long forgotten the failed assassination attempt.

Will be interesting to see if Harris’s momentum keeps building and can Trump be disciplined enough to stay on topic and attack Harris and her policies or bring up old beefs he can’t shake (I tend to think he can’t on the latter).

 

[Krowking123]

How bad was it for Biden and Hilary at this point in the polls? Some serious media pushing to get to this point it’s insane.

 

[zingerdawg]

Harris up 52%-45%. It’s no secret that the election comes down to 5 states: Mich, Wisc, Penn, Ga and Ariz.

If Dems sweep the rust belt states of Wisc, Penn and Mich, it’s over for Trump. He has to win 1 of those 3 to have a chance. That is assuming Ga and Ariz go red (which is an IF). I think both are in good shape for GOP but Trump and his team did no favors for themselves when he bashed Kemp and his wife and basically called Georgia and Atlanta a crime infested area. Bash one of the most popular governors and politicians in the state, great idea Trump and team! That’ll work out well for you! 🤦🏻‍♂️

Trump and his team have gotta find a way to get Harris out and do some press conferences. Right now, she is just avoiding anything when it comes to a live news conference. Obviously a debate will help but he needs something sooner to start swinging the momentum back to his (Trump’s campaign) because right now he doesn’t have much it feels like. People have long forgotten the failed assassination attempt.

Will be interesting to see if Harris’s momentum keeps building and can Trump be disciplined enough to stay on topic and attack Harris and her policies or bring up old beefs he can’t shake (I tend to think he can’t on the latter).

Looking at that map is depressing. We could easily become two or three countries. The ones that are blue are rarely red. The ones that are red are rarely blue.

 

[Eastmandawg]

Looking at that map is depressing. We could easily become two or three countries. The ones that are blue are rarely red. The ones that are red are rarely blue.

Shat…..she is just probably better off ducking questions, giggling and getting jiggy with it.

I mean, why even risk it??

 

[Dawgdocindosta]

This poll may be accurate. I have nothing but observation to make my own opinion. But I'll just say I don't believe those numbers. I may be surprised come November.
JC

 

[BlessedDawg]

Early voting starts soon in some states. Harris is obviously not wanting to do interviews prior to the Dem convention and quell any momentum build up.
The couple of weeks after the convention will be key for Trump. Can Harris successfully ignore the media until November without scaring off some voters with her silence?

 

[zingerdawg]

Shat…..she is just probably better off ducking questions, giggling and getting jiggy with it.

I mean, why even risk it??

For sure. Just keep sending sentiments of joy to the country. We want old people to now retire with dignity. (Used to say comfortably, not sure why they changed that word) Eastman, she will make one job for each American to make ends meet her priority. We have a secure border. Seriously, how dumb is our country if these numbers ring true. The media is such a powerful entity. Look at what they have accomplished in the last month and a half. Got a president shot at. Made him seem like a hero. Made the first coup in American history possible and gave the political murderers cover. They have recreated a candidate who was the worst vp in our country’s modern history, and in a few weeks have made her more popular than anyone could have imagined. Without one item of substance from her. Not one true job accomplishment. Nothing. It is breathtaking and terrifying at the same time.

 

[DallasDawg225]

This guy seems to know his stuff!

 

[Eastmandawg]

For sure. Just keep sending sentiments of joy to the country. We want old people to now retire with dignity. (Used to say comfortably, not sure why they changed that word) Eastman, she will make one job for each American to make ends meet her priority. We have a secure border. Seriously, how dumb is our country if these numbers ring true. The media is such a powerful entity. Look at what they have accomplished in the last month and a half. Got a president shot at. Made him seem like a hero. Made the first coup in American history possible and gave the political murderers cover. They have recreated a candidate who was the worst vp in our country’s modern history, and in a few weeks have made her more popular than anyone could have imagined. Without one item of substance from her. Not one true job accomplishment. Nothing. It is breathtaking and terrifying at the same time.

Concur……the only thing Trump can do at this point is to stay on the trail and talk about the real issues and share his record (issues). Stay away from the personal shat.

Maybe all that will coax her out, but beginning to wonder.

Too many vote on who they personally like.

 

[wwforest]

Can the media Harris successfully ignore Harris until November

FIFY

 

[DawgWCK]

This poll may be accurate. I have nothing but observation to make my own opinion. But I'll just say I don't believe those numbers. I may be surprised come November.
JC

My feeling exactly. This poll COULD be 100% correct or it could be a manipulated poll to get desired results. There appear to be several of those type polls out there right now. I figure looks at some of the more credible polls by middle of September and you will get a good feel of the race. My take if election were held today Trump would win but that is a lot of conjecture on my part.

 

[WGrovedawg]

Harris up 52%-45%. It’s no secret that the election comes down to 5 states: Mich, Wisc, Penn, Ga and Ariz.

If Dems sweep the rust belt states of Wisc, Penn and Mich, it’s over for Trump. He has to win 1 of those 3 to have a chance. That is assuming Ga and Ariz go red (which is an IF). I think both are in good shape for GOP but Trump and his team did no favors for themselves when he bashed Kemp and his wife and basically called Georgia and Atlanta a crime infested area. Bash one of the most popular governors and politicians in the state, great idea Trump and team! That’ll work out well for you! 🤦🏻‍♂️

Trump and his team have gotta find a way to get Harris out and do some press conferences. Right now, she is just avoiding anything when it comes to a live news conference. Obviously a debate will help but he needs something sooner to start swinging the momentum back to his (Trump’s campaign) because right now he doesn’t have much it feels like. People have long forgotten the failed assassination attempt.

Will be interesting to see if Harris’s momentum keeps building and can Trump be disciplined enough to stay on topic and attack Harris and her policies or bring up old beefs he can’t shake (I tend to think he can’t on the latter).

Polymarket is a crypto gaming website based off bets(market), they had Trump at 72 percent in July to beat Biden, eight days ago it was Trump 68 percent. If Kamala to win is being bought at .56 a share her probability is 56 percent. This isn't a poll it is day trading/gambling with crypto.

 

[MaitlandFloridaDawg]

This poll may be accurate. I have nothing but observation to make my own opinion. But I'll just say I don't believe those numbers. I may be surprised come November.
JC

Just to be clear, the numbers were betting odds, not a poll. The most disturbing part is the Trump had a 65% chance of winning 2.5 weeks ago. His campaign is in a death spiral.

 

[DawgWCK]

Just to be clear, the numbers were betting odds, not a poll. The most disturbing part is the Trump had a 65% chance of winning 2.5 weeks ago. His campaign is in a death spiral.

Could be case or the polls are being manipulated to a point to try to influence momentum and MSM talking points. I am confident that some polls are being manipulated but that doesn’t mean that Harris is not gaining ground and could be headed for a win. Your last sentence is what the MSM is wanting to push, however Rasmussen and interactive poll above indicate that is not what we are polling, so many of us are skeptical of many polling #’s at this point.

 

[nice marmot]

Betting markets are dumb. Individual polls are not particularly useful. Poll aggregators are a little better.

I happen to like the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which rates the race (as of today) as a toss-up, noting that Harris is on a winning streak, but Trump looks stronger in some places in 2024 than in 2020.

Harris will control the environment through Labor Day, as the DNC is upcoming, but in truth we all know the race begins in earnest in September.

In 2016, it was at this stage of the campaign that Trump fired Corey Lewandowski and hired Steve Bannon.
In 2016, it was in October that Comey drop-kicked Hillary.
etc.
Lots can happen. Anyone counting their chickens just doesn't follow politics very closely.

 

[BlessedDawg]

Interesting to look back at 2020 and see the margin of error from polls against actual vote margin. Seems like a reasonable deduction to predict the same swing of percentage and apply it to pills today.

 

[Booneville Dawg]

As of today most collegiate polls have Trump up2-5%. Sampling of voters continues to show little concern over either VP candidate and top 3 issues remain Immigration, economy, and foreign policy. Based on today's polls, electoral college shakes out Trump 281 Harris 251; very close.

 

[dawgfood0612]

The debate/debates will decide the election.

The majority of Americans who vote don't have the desire or time to watch a press conference.

But they do watch debates.

Can Trump stay on script and force Harris to answer regarding some very liberal policy positions, or will he talk about the election being stolen, personal attacks. etc.?

Is Harris ready for prime time, she wasn't in 2020, has she improved her game?

Plenty of folks don't like either candidate, so the debates could turn these voters one way or another.

Just my thoughts.

 

[nice marmot]

The debate/debates will decide the election.

Regarding your thoughts - while this is a hopeful take for a more noble world, I respectfully disagree.

Debates are most often Rorschach tests. We see what we want to see. In the most recent, rare exception (proving the rule?) we all saw two old men, one able to form sentences, the other unable to put his ideas into speech.

Just in terms of probability, the election is more likely to be decided by Black Swan Events and the reaction.

 

[atlanta cock#]

Regarding your thoughts - while this is a hopeful take for a more noble world, I respectfully disagree.

Debates are most often Rorschach tests. We see what we want to see. In the most recent, rare exception (proving the rule?) we all saw two old men, one able to form sentences, the other unable to put his ideas into speech.

Just in terms of probability, the election is more likely to be decided by Black Swan Events and the reaction.

Kinda like tuning in to The View, Maddow or Stephanopoulos to hear what you want to hear, even when is it's 100% wrong.

 

[Gfunk20]

Early voting starts soon in some states. Harris is obviously not wanting to do interviews prior to the Dem convention and quell any momentum build up.
The couple of weeks after the convention will be key for Trump. Can Harris successfully ignore the media until November without scaring off some voters with her silence?

Good points.

 

[3 Pete]

Trump was right to bash Kemp.

 

[oldmandawg]

Trump was right to bash Kemp.

View embedded media

Yes, but you can be wrong in your rightness. I don't think he should have gone public with bashing Kemp. But sure, Trump should give Kemp an earful behind closed doors.

 

[JackRussellDawg]

Trump was right to bash Kemp.

View embedded media

The DemonRats are stealing it again.

 

[DawgWCK]

Regarding your thoughts - while this is a hopeful take for a more noble world, I respectfully disagree.

Debates are most often Rorschach tests. We see what we want to see. In the most recent, rare exception (proving the rule?) we all saw two old men, one able to form sentences, the other unable to put his ideas into speech.

Just in terms of probability, the election is more likely to be decided by Black Swan Events and the reaction.

i concur, Trump will be telling some wingers, and Harris will be cackling and denying policy positions she took last year. I just don't see debate moving anyone to vote for a particular candidate. (similar to differing opinions about Trump on X last night, i took it as ok and many took it as more Trump lies) Trump could go postal again, which could hurt him but both sides will dig in and try to paint the other candidate in a bad light. At some point the media is going to start making snide remarks related to Harris not taking questions, I think a CNN reported did it today. I tend to think she can't skate until November without some tough interviews but we shall see. How she handles those interviews MAY be more impactful than debates.