Each week of the football season, professional guest picker Brian Edwards will join us to give his analysis and picks on a few games he likes each week…enjoy and good luck!!!
Overall – 25-20-3 * not counting bonus plays *
TCU -2.5 at Baylor: TCU (10-0 straight up, 8-1-1 against the spread) is undefeated in five road games with a 4-0-1 spread record. On the flip side, Baylor (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) is 3-2 both SU and ATS in five home games. The Bears took woodshed treatment in their own building last week when Kansas St. rolled into Waco and left with a 38-3 victory as a short underdog.
TCU has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings against Baylor. The lone defeat came in overtime in 2019.
Sonny Dykes’s team had won three games in a row by double-digit margins and appeared to be on its way to a similar outcome in Austin last week. However, a fumble that the Longhorns recovered the returned for a touchdown with 4:25 remaining cut the Horned Frogs’ lead to seven points.
Nevertheless, TCU’s defense was the catalyst in a 17-10 win as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Frogs kept an elite Texas offense out of the end zone for 60 minutes. Despite the meager 10-point showing for the Longhorns, they’re still averaging 33.5 points per game.
TCU quarterback Max Duggan has a 25/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four rushing TDs. RB Kendre Miller has 1,148 rushing yards, 13 TDs and a 6.6 yards-per-carry average.
LSU -15 vs. UAB: LSU (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is 5-1 both SU and ATS in six home games. UAB, on the other hand, is winless both SU and ATS in four road contests.
Brian Kelly’s team has won four of its five home games by margins of 15 points or more. The Blazers have lost and failed to cover in road assignments at FAU, at Western Kentucky, at Rice and at Liberty, and now they venture into Baton Rouge at night.
UAB has failed miserably in the last five seasons when it has stepped up in class and faced Power-Five opponents. In fact, the Blazers are 0-5 both SU and ATS in those spots, losing by margins of 49, 17, 23, 21 and 29 points. They’re also currently on a 1-4 ATS slide in their last five outings.
ULM at Troy ‘UNDER’ 48 points: The ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run for the Trojans with their combined scores coming to 19, 40, 16, 31 and 37 points. Even with those miniscule numbers, Troy has its highest total since Oct. 1 in this spot.
Jon Sumrall’s squad is ranked ninth nationally in scoring defense, giving up an average of only 16.7 points per game. The Trojans’ 10 games have averaged combined scores of 38.0 PPG.
Boston College +21 at Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman’s club is 0-5 ATS in five games as a double-digit favorite. The Fighting Irish have lost those games by 65 combined points compared to the closing spread.
Jeff Hafley’s team has put together back-to-back quality outings that indicate BC is playing its best football of the season. Two weeks ago, the Eagles covered the number in a 38-31 loss to Duke as 11.5-point home underdogs. Then last week, they stunned North Carolina St. 21-20 as 17-point road underdogs.
What’s changed suddenly? Well, with Phil Jurkovec in concussion protocol and nursing a lower-body injury, redshirt freshman QB Emmett Morehead has been given his first two career starts. He threw for 330 yards and four TD passes without an interception in the loss at Duke. Morehead had 330 passing yards (again) and three TDs compared to two interceptions in the win over the Wolfpack.
Duke +7.5 at Pitt: Duke (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won three games in a row, including double-digit victories vs. Va. Tech (24-7) and at Miami (45-21). The Blue Devils, who have covered the spread in four consecutive contests, have lost by more than three points only once this season.
They’re 3-1 both SU and ATS in four games as underdogs, with the lone outright defeat and non-cover coming in a 35-27 loss at Kansas as eight-point road ‘dogs.
I’m confident we have advantages at the QB position and in the head-coaching department. Duke’s Riley Leonard has completed 64.0 percent of his throws for 2,113 yards with a 13/5 TD-INT ratio. He also has a team-best 624 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 6.2 YPC average. Meanwhile, Pitt QB Kedon Slovis has the same amount of TD passes (six) and interceptions (six).
- By Brian Edwards
- @vegasbedwards on Twitter (linkage: https://twitter.com/vegasbedwards)
- MajorWager.com Managing Editor (linkage: https://www.majorwager.com/)
- VegasInsider.com Senior Handicapper (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/brian-edwards/)
- Owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com (linkage: http://brianedwardssports.com/) Host of the BetCFB Podcast (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/shows/bet-cfb/)
Overall – 25-20-3 * not counting bonus plays *
WEEK 12
TCU -2.5 at Baylor: TCU (10-0 straight up, 8-1-1 against the spread) is undefeated in five road games with a 4-0-1 spread record. On the flip side, Baylor (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) is 3-2 both SU and ATS in five home games. The Bears took woodshed treatment in their own building last week when Kansas St. rolled into Waco and left with a 38-3 victory as a short underdog.
TCU has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings against Baylor. The lone defeat came in overtime in 2019.
Sonny Dykes’s team had won three games in a row by double-digit margins and appeared to be on its way to a similar outcome in Austin last week. However, a fumble that the Longhorns recovered the returned for a touchdown with 4:25 remaining cut the Horned Frogs’ lead to seven points.
Nevertheless, TCU’s defense was the catalyst in a 17-10 win as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Frogs kept an elite Texas offense out of the end zone for 60 minutes. Despite the meager 10-point showing for the Longhorns, they’re still averaging 33.5 points per game.
TCU quarterback Max Duggan has a 25/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four rushing TDs. RB Kendre Miller has 1,148 rushing yards, 13 TDs and a 6.6 yards-per-carry average.
LSU -15 vs. UAB: LSU (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is 5-1 both SU and ATS in six home games. UAB, on the other hand, is winless both SU and ATS in four road contests.
Brian Kelly’s team has won four of its five home games by margins of 15 points or more. The Blazers have lost and failed to cover in road assignments at FAU, at Western Kentucky, at Rice and at Liberty, and now they venture into Baton Rouge at night.
UAB has failed miserably in the last five seasons when it has stepped up in class and faced Power-Five opponents. In fact, the Blazers are 0-5 both SU and ATS in those spots, losing by margins of 49, 17, 23, 21 and 29 points. They’re also currently on a 1-4 ATS slide in their last five outings.
ULM at Troy ‘UNDER’ 48 points: The ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run for the Trojans with their combined scores coming to 19, 40, 16, 31 and 37 points. Even with those miniscule numbers, Troy has its highest total since Oct. 1 in this spot.
Jon Sumrall’s squad is ranked ninth nationally in scoring defense, giving up an average of only 16.7 points per game. The Trojans’ 10 games have averaged combined scores of 38.0 PPG.
Boston College +21 at Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman’s club is 0-5 ATS in five games as a double-digit favorite. The Fighting Irish have lost those games by 65 combined points compared to the closing spread.
Jeff Hafley’s team has put together back-to-back quality outings that indicate BC is playing its best football of the season. Two weeks ago, the Eagles covered the number in a 38-31 loss to Duke as 11.5-point home underdogs. Then last week, they stunned North Carolina St. 21-20 as 17-point road underdogs.
What’s changed suddenly? Well, with Phil Jurkovec in concussion protocol and nursing a lower-body injury, redshirt freshman QB Emmett Morehead has been given his first two career starts. He threw for 330 yards and four TD passes without an interception in the loss at Duke. Morehead had 330 passing yards (again) and three TDs compared to two interceptions in the win over the Wolfpack.
Duke +7.5 at Pitt: Duke (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won three games in a row, including double-digit victories vs. Va. Tech (24-7) and at Miami (45-21). The Blue Devils, who have covered the spread in four consecutive contests, have lost by more than three points only once this season.
They’re 3-1 both SU and ATS in four games as underdogs, with the lone outright defeat and non-cover coming in a 35-27 loss at Kansas as eight-point road ‘dogs.
I’m confident we have advantages at the QB position and in the head-coaching department. Duke’s Riley Leonard has completed 64.0 percent of his throws for 2,113 yards with a 13/5 TD-INT ratio. He also has a team-best 624 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 6.2 YPC average. Meanwhile, Pitt QB Kedon Slovis has the same amount of TD passes (six) and interceptions (six).
