Each week of the football season, professional guest picker Brian Edwards will join us to give his analysis and picks on a few games he likes each week…enjoy and good luck!!!
Overall – 13-13-3 * not counting bonus plays *
WEEK 7
Penn State +7 at Michigan: Let’s start with an underdog in the early session of games by going with a team in the favorable spot. Penn St. (5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) has had two weeks to prepare for the Wolverines, who are playing their seventh game in seven weeks. James Franklin’s team also has the revenge angle after losing 21-17 at home to Michigan last year.
PSU was 0-5 going into its last trip to The Big House in 2020. Nevertheless, the Nittany Lions won a 27-17 decision as one-point road underdogs. They’ve already gone on the road twice the year and posted a 2-0 record both SU and ATS, including a 41-12 win at Auburn.
Penn St. is 12-8 ATS in 20 games as a road underdog since 2017. QB Sean Clifford has a 9/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio with four rushing TDs through five games. The Nittany Lions are ranked seventh nationally in run defense and 13th in scoring ‘D’ (14.8 points per game).
Michigan (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) coasted to easy non-conference wins over cupcakes like Colorado St., Hawaii and UConn, but it has gone 1-2 ATS in three Big Ten games. The Wolverines barely got past Maryland (34-27) at home and last week’s non-covering 31-10 win at Indiana was a misleading final score. The Hoosiers only trailed 17-10 with less than 10 minutes remaining.
Clemson -3.5 at Florida St.: I obviously prefer Clemson at -3 so if you can buy the half-point to the key number of three without being forced to pay more than a -130 price in juice, then I suggest doing so just in case. I made the Tigers seven-point favorites in this spot.
Dabo Swinney’s squad has won six consecutive games in this rivalry and it would be seven if Mike Norvell’s team hadn’t forfeited in 2020 just hours before kickoff. The last four victories have come by double-digit margins.
After going unbeaten in September thanks to two narrow wins over LSU and Louisville, FSU has dropped back-to-back games, including a 31-21 home loss to Wake Forest. The Seminoles might be without key players like RB Treshaun Ward, DT Fabien Lovett and LB Amari Gainer, who are ‘questionable’ with injuries.
Ward has a team-best 488 rushing yards, three TDs and a 6.8 yards-per-carry average. Clemson, on the other hand, is expected to get preseason All-American Bryan Bresee back in the lineup. The Tigers are ranked second in the country in run defense and 24th in both total defense and scoring ‘D’ (18.3 PPG).
Charlotte at UAB ‘OVER’ 63: The Westgate SuperBook was still at 63 late Friday morning but if your number is 63.5, buy the half-point to 63. That’s a key number for a total being a multiple of seven.
The ‘over’ has cashed in five consecutive Charlotte games that have produced combined scores of 65, 77, 83, 76 and 76 points. The 49ers are ranked dead last nationally in scoring defense (46.3 PPG) and are No. 130 out of 131 FBS teams in both total defense and at defending the run.
The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Blazers, who are ninth in the country in rushing yards and 34th in scoring with their 34.6 PPG average.
Rice at Florida Atlantic ‘OVER’ 55.5: The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-0 clip for Rice with its games averaging combined scores of 61.8 PPG. UAB’s games have averaged 61.1 PPG.
FAU is ranked No. 101 in total defense, No. 98 against the run and No. 91 in scoring defense (29.3 PPG). Rice is ranked No. 91 in run defense and No. 101 in scoring ‘D’ (31.0 PPG).
Utah -3.5 vs. USC: Just like with Clemson, buy the half-point to the key number of three if possible. We’re getting Utah (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) in a nice bounce-back spot here after losing at UCLA last week. The Utes are 3-0 both SU and ATS in three home games this season, winning by margins of 26, 28 and 67 points.
Utah is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite. During that same 30-game stretch as home ‘chalk,’ the Utes are 8-0 ATS in the eight games in which they were single-digit home favorites.
Utah QB Cam Rising has thrown for 1,440 yards with a 13/3 TD-INT ratio. He also has 249 rushing yards and three TDs. In Utah’s 42-26 win at USC last season, Rising completed 22-of-28 passes for 306 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also had 27 rushing yards and one TD on only six attempts.
Bonus NFL Picks: Giants +6 vs. Baltimore and Cowboys +6.5 at Philadelphia.
- By Brian Edwards
- @vegasbedwards on Twitter (linkage: https://twitter.com/vegasbedwards)
- MajorWager.com Managing Editor (linkage: https://www.majorwager.com/)
- VegasInsider.com Senior Handicapper (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/brian-edwards/)
- Owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com (linkage: http://brianedwardssports.com/) Host of the BetCFB Podcast (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/shows/bet-cfb/)
Overall – 13-13-3 * not counting bonus plays *
WEEK 7
Penn State +7 at Michigan: Let’s start with an underdog in the early session of games by going with a team in the favorable spot. Penn St. (5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) has had two weeks to prepare for the Wolverines, who are playing their seventh game in seven weeks. James Franklin’s team also has the revenge angle after losing 21-17 at home to Michigan last year.
PSU was 0-5 going into its last trip to The Big House in 2020. Nevertheless, the Nittany Lions won a 27-17 decision as one-point road underdogs. They’ve already gone on the road twice the year and posted a 2-0 record both SU and ATS, including a 41-12 win at Auburn.
Penn St. is 12-8 ATS in 20 games as a road underdog since 2017. QB Sean Clifford has a 9/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio with four rushing TDs through five games. The Nittany Lions are ranked seventh nationally in run defense and 13th in scoring ‘D’ (14.8 points per game).
Michigan (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) coasted to easy non-conference wins over cupcakes like Colorado St., Hawaii and UConn, but it has gone 1-2 ATS in three Big Ten games. The Wolverines barely got past Maryland (34-27) at home and last week’s non-covering 31-10 win at Indiana was a misleading final score. The Hoosiers only trailed 17-10 with less than 10 minutes remaining.
Clemson -3.5 at Florida St.: I obviously prefer Clemson at -3 so if you can buy the half-point to the key number of three without being forced to pay more than a -130 price in juice, then I suggest doing so just in case. I made the Tigers seven-point favorites in this spot.
Dabo Swinney’s squad has won six consecutive games in this rivalry and it would be seven if Mike Norvell’s team hadn’t forfeited in 2020 just hours before kickoff. The last four victories have come by double-digit margins.
After going unbeaten in September thanks to two narrow wins over LSU and Louisville, FSU has dropped back-to-back games, including a 31-21 home loss to Wake Forest. The Seminoles might be without key players like RB Treshaun Ward, DT Fabien Lovett and LB Amari Gainer, who are ‘questionable’ with injuries.
Ward has a team-best 488 rushing yards, three TDs and a 6.8 yards-per-carry average. Clemson, on the other hand, is expected to get preseason All-American Bryan Bresee back in the lineup. The Tigers are ranked second in the country in run defense and 24th in both total defense and scoring ‘D’ (18.3 PPG).
Charlotte at UAB ‘OVER’ 63: The Westgate SuperBook was still at 63 late Friday morning but if your number is 63.5, buy the half-point to 63. That’s a key number for a total being a multiple of seven.
The ‘over’ has cashed in five consecutive Charlotte games that have produced combined scores of 65, 77, 83, 76 and 76 points. The 49ers are ranked dead last nationally in scoring defense (46.3 PPG) and are No. 130 out of 131 FBS teams in both total defense and at defending the run.
The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Blazers, who are ninth in the country in rushing yards and 34th in scoring with their 34.6 PPG average.
Rice at Florida Atlantic ‘OVER’ 55.5: The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-0 clip for Rice with its games averaging combined scores of 61.8 PPG. UAB’s games have averaged 61.1 PPG.
FAU is ranked No. 101 in total defense, No. 98 against the run and No. 91 in scoring defense (29.3 PPG). Rice is ranked No. 91 in run defense and No. 101 in scoring ‘D’ (31.0 PPG).
Utah -3.5 vs. USC: Just like with Clemson, buy the half-point to the key number of three if possible. We’re getting Utah (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) in a nice bounce-back spot here after losing at UCLA last week. The Utes are 3-0 both SU and ATS in three home games this season, winning by margins of 26, 28 and 67 points.
Utah is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite. During that same 30-game stretch as home ‘chalk,’ the Utes are 8-0 ATS in the eight games in which they were single-digit home favorites.
Utah QB Cam Rising has thrown for 1,440 yards with a 13/3 TD-INT ratio. He also has 249 rushing yards and three TDs. In Utah’s 42-26 win at USC last season, Rising completed 22-of-28 passes for 306 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also had 27 rushing yards and one TD on only six attempts.
Bonus NFL Picks: Giants +6 vs. Baltimore and Cowboys +6.5 at Philadelphia.
