At 8-10 in the SEC, we could probably say that Vanderbilt is the biggest surprise in the SEC this year. This crowd was an eye popping 26-3 last year in conference. While they did lose some guys offensively (Kemp, Gregor, Harrell, Yaz, and Navin are hard to replace at once) they brought back almost all of their pitching staff and had some good quality bats waiting in the wings. I think we all knew that 26 wins wouldn't be matched, but I never suspected that the Commodores would be sub .500 after 6 SEC weekends.
After taking a series from LSU in the league opener, things haven't come easily for Vanderbilt. They dropped a series at Miss State after being blown out on Friday night, they took a home series from Kentucky, then lost three straight series to Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. It's tough to win on the road and they had to travel to Knoxville and Fayetteville, but still, none of those teams are the cream of the SEC crop this year and I was surprising that Vanderbilt dropped all three series. At 8-10, ours is a very important series for Vanderbilt.
Friday night, we'll see Tyler Beede. The junior righty from Auburn Massachusetts has a prototypical starter's build at 6"4", 215 lbs. I found a good scouting report for him here. To summarize, he's mid 90s with his 4 seam fastball, has a nasty 12-6 curve, and a devastating change up. He's as talented as anyone in the country. His numbers aren't as good right now as Aaron Nola's, but I'd draft Beede first if I had a choice between the two. The thing that gets Beede in trouble, as the scouting report alluded to, are walks. He gave a lot of free passes last year as I remember, but was able to pitch around it. He's cleaned up the walks a bit this season, though he is still walking too many, but his numbers in the SEC aren't as daunting as they were a season ago. Beede has 6 starts in league play and a 1-5 record. He has a 5.66 ERA in 35 innings. He has a 29/16 K/BB and SEC hitters are hitting .277 against him. I don't usually calculate WHIP when I'm doing this, but I wanted to for Beede and it's 1.54 in league play, much higher than I would have anticipated. Hard to know why. Sometimes when a guy gets the close to such a large financial windfall, it can be hard to focus. And let's face it, I'm sure that he didn't grow up dreaming of playing baseball at Vanderbilt. Either way, he's extremely talented and will be a major test for us tomorrow night. He started the middle game in 2012 against us and went 7 innings as I recall. Last year, Vandy staked him to a 5-0 lead before he threw a pitch and he cruised, other than giving up 2 HRs to Kyle Farmer (Farmer also homered off him in '12 as I recall). Vanderbilt won both of those games. When the 'Dores signed Beede, I figured that he'd be very tough to beat as a sophomore and junior. This is a guy who turned down $2.2m out of high school to go to Vanderbilt. Still some time before the draft, but I imagine that will be a good decision for him financially.
Saturday, we're going to see Carson Fulmer, who was Vanderbilt's closer until last weekend. Fulmer is a sophomore righty out of Lakeland FL. He's built like a bullpen guy at 5'11, 195. I imagine that close to Craig Kimbrel's stature, and like Kimbrel, Fulmer throws GAS. He sits in the mid 90s with his fastball and I understand that he has a good change up as well. In league play this year, Fulmer has pitched in 9 games with 1 start. He has a 1-1 record with 4 saves and 1.86 ERA over 19 1/3 innings. He has a 20/8 K/BB and SEC hitters are hitting only .188 against him. In 66 ABs in league play, he's only allowed one extra base hit. Last weekend in Fayetteville, Fulmer went 6 innings. I'd imagine that Vanderbilt is looking to get a similar load out of him on Saturday afternoon.
Sunday, we'll see another Tyler, this one a Ferguson. He's a big sophomore righty out of Fresno CA. I couldn't find anything overly detailed on him, but understand that he throws a low 90s fastball and also has a curve and a decent changeup. Ferguson has been a fixture in the Vanderbilt rotation this season. He's started each SEC weekend and thrown 30 innings. He has a respectable 4.50 ERA and 2-3 record. He has a 20/9 K/BB and the SEC is hitting .227 against him. We can probably put the ball in play against this guy, but he doesn't allow many base runners.
Vanderbilt has a very deep bullpen, thanks in large part to all their extra "scholarships". I won't go through each guy, but Paul Mainieri at LSU said it's as deep and good of a bullpen as he's ever seen. We can count on seeing a lot of low-mid 90s out of their bullpen. Brian Miller appears to be their closer now that Fulmer moved into the bullpen. Miller has a very compact, side arm motion as I recall that produces some surprising velocity.
Offensively, Vanderbilt is lead by several familiar names. I said last year that a guy named Dansby Swanson was probably born to go to school at Vanderbilt. The sophomore from Marietta HS in Cobb County will play 2B and hit leadoff. David Perno mentioned last year that we recruited a suburban Atlanta kid who would have gotten HOPE at UGA, but actually wound up paying less out of pocket at Vanderbilt, and that's why he's in Nashville. I'd imagine that player was Swanson (although Vanderbilt also has a freshman catcher from Johns Creek). Swanson is having a surprising good season after being an irregular player as a true freshman. In the SEC, he's started every game and is hitting .358/.418/.493 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, and is 4-5 in stolen bases.
Two years ago, I thought that Vince Conde had a "coming out" party of sorts against us. He was playing 3B then. Vanderbilt seemed reluctant to play him at SS for a long time, but he's settled in nicely there now. The junior righty hails from Ovideo Florida, which is a familiar spot for us as well. In league play, Conde is hitting .383/.479/.500. His average is 4th in the conference for qualified hitters. He also has 1 HR and 13 RBIs. We'll see him hitting cleanup.
At 3rd base, we'll see Xavier Turner. I was really impressed with his athleticism last season in Athens. At 6'2, 220 lbs, Turner is built like an SEC tailback. He'll hit 2nd. The right handed hitter hails from Sandusky Ohio. In league play, he's hitting .347/.356/.458 with 1 HR and 6 RBI.
Vanderbilt has a field turf infield, the only such one in the SEC. They know how to play on it. LSU had some trouble fielding wise on that IF and that's a common theme for opponents. It also really helps Vanderbilt's running game, and their steal numbers this year are eye popping. Overall, they're 63/93 in steals.... they've played 42 games, so do the math. They're 24/34 in league play. We've generally done a better job this year of controlling the run game, but we're going to have to be at our best this weekend. Also, Vanderbilt leads in the SEC in in-conference doubles with 37. They're a fast team and they're going to be aggressive on the bases.
Surprisingly, Vanderbilt leads in the SEC in conference errors with 30 (we are tied for fewest with 16). I say that's surprising because Vandy is a usually a pretty good defensive team.
Honestly, I'm more worried about this series just because of how we're playing. I don't expect us to be in a funk the rest of the way, but we're in one now and it's going to be a long weekend for us if it lingers.... and that would be the case if we were playing ANYONE in the SEC. It's going to take a much stronger effort than what we've shown over the last three games. The good news, though, is that I know that we have some good baseball in us. This is a winnable series if we play our best, coach our best, and have everyone "locked in". For Vanderbilt's part, despite their 8-10 record, this a team and program that knows how to win (at least until June).... they're not used to being sub .500, not accustomed to looking up at several teams in the SEC. They have a good weekend, or a couple of good weekends, left in them too. Their record at 8-10 almost scares me more than if they were 15-3. This is a very series for both programs and can serve to launch either group in either direction. As I said yesterday, there's something out there for us.... I really believe that.... but we have to start taking it now, this weekend.
After taking a series from LSU in the league opener, things haven't come easily for Vanderbilt. They dropped a series at Miss State after being blown out on Friday night, they took a home series from Kentucky, then lost three straight series to Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. It's tough to win on the road and they had to travel to Knoxville and Fayetteville, but still, none of those teams are the cream of the SEC crop this year and I was surprising that Vanderbilt dropped all three series. At 8-10, ours is a very important series for Vanderbilt.
Friday night, we'll see Tyler Beede. The junior righty from Auburn Massachusetts has a prototypical starter's build at 6"4", 215 lbs. I found a good scouting report for him here. To summarize, he's mid 90s with his 4 seam fastball, has a nasty 12-6 curve, and a devastating change up. He's as talented as anyone in the country. His numbers aren't as good right now as Aaron Nola's, but I'd draft Beede first if I had a choice between the two. The thing that gets Beede in trouble, as the scouting report alluded to, are walks. He gave a lot of free passes last year as I remember, but was able to pitch around it. He's cleaned up the walks a bit this season, though he is still walking too many, but his numbers in the SEC aren't as daunting as they were a season ago. Beede has 6 starts in league play and a 1-5 record. He has a 5.66 ERA in 35 innings. He has a 29/16 K/BB and SEC hitters are hitting .277 against him. I don't usually calculate WHIP when I'm doing this, but I wanted to for Beede and it's 1.54 in league play, much higher than I would have anticipated. Hard to know why. Sometimes when a guy gets the close to such a large financial windfall, it can be hard to focus. And let's face it, I'm sure that he didn't grow up dreaming of playing baseball at Vanderbilt. Either way, he's extremely talented and will be a major test for us tomorrow night. He started the middle game in 2012 against us and went 7 innings as I recall. Last year, Vandy staked him to a 5-0 lead before he threw a pitch and he cruised, other than giving up 2 HRs to Kyle Farmer (Farmer also homered off him in '12 as I recall). Vanderbilt won both of those games. When the 'Dores signed Beede, I figured that he'd be very tough to beat as a sophomore and junior. This is a guy who turned down $2.2m out of high school to go to Vanderbilt. Still some time before the draft, but I imagine that will be a good decision for him financially.
Saturday, we're going to see Carson Fulmer, who was Vanderbilt's closer until last weekend. Fulmer is a sophomore righty out of Lakeland FL. He's built like a bullpen guy at 5'11, 195. I imagine that close to Craig Kimbrel's stature, and like Kimbrel, Fulmer throws GAS. He sits in the mid 90s with his fastball and I understand that he has a good change up as well. In league play this year, Fulmer has pitched in 9 games with 1 start. He has a 1-1 record with 4 saves and 1.86 ERA over 19 1/3 innings. He has a 20/8 K/BB and SEC hitters are hitting only .188 against him. In 66 ABs in league play, he's only allowed one extra base hit. Last weekend in Fayetteville, Fulmer went 6 innings. I'd imagine that Vanderbilt is looking to get a similar load out of him on Saturday afternoon.
Sunday, we'll see another Tyler, this one a Ferguson. He's a big sophomore righty out of Fresno CA. I couldn't find anything overly detailed on him, but understand that he throws a low 90s fastball and also has a curve and a decent changeup. Ferguson has been a fixture in the Vanderbilt rotation this season. He's started each SEC weekend and thrown 30 innings. He has a respectable 4.50 ERA and 2-3 record. He has a 20/9 K/BB and the SEC is hitting .227 against him. We can probably put the ball in play against this guy, but he doesn't allow many base runners.
Vanderbilt has a very deep bullpen, thanks in large part to all their extra "scholarships". I won't go through each guy, but Paul Mainieri at LSU said it's as deep and good of a bullpen as he's ever seen. We can count on seeing a lot of low-mid 90s out of their bullpen. Brian Miller appears to be their closer now that Fulmer moved into the bullpen. Miller has a very compact, side arm motion as I recall that produces some surprising velocity.
Offensively, Vanderbilt is lead by several familiar names. I said last year that a guy named Dansby Swanson was probably born to go to school at Vanderbilt. The sophomore from Marietta HS in Cobb County will play 2B and hit leadoff. David Perno mentioned last year that we recruited a suburban Atlanta kid who would have gotten HOPE at UGA, but actually wound up paying less out of pocket at Vanderbilt, and that's why he's in Nashville. I'd imagine that player was Swanson (although Vanderbilt also has a freshman catcher from Johns Creek). Swanson is having a surprising good season after being an irregular player as a true freshman. In the SEC, he's started every game and is hitting .358/.418/.493 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, and is 4-5 in stolen bases.
Two years ago, I thought that Vince Conde had a "coming out" party of sorts against us. He was playing 3B then. Vanderbilt seemed reluctant to play him at SS for a long time, but he's settled in nicely there now. The junior righty hails from Ovideo Florida, which is a familiar spot for us as well. In league play, Conde is hitting .383/.479/.500. His average is 4th in the conference for qualified hitters. He also has 1 HR and 13 RBIs. We'll see him hitting cleanup.
At 3rd base, we'll see Xavier Turner. I was really impressed with his athleticism last season in Athens. At 6'2, 220 lbs, Turner is built like an SEC tailback. He'll hit 2nd. The right handed hitter hails from Sandusky Ohio. In league play, he's hitting .347/.356/.458 with 1 HR and 6 RBI.
Vanderbilt has a field turf infield, the only such one in the SEC. They know how to play on it. LSU had some trouble fielding wise on that IF and that's a common theme for opponents. It also really helps Vanderbilt's running game, and their steal numbers this year are eye popping. Overall, they're 63/93 in steals.... they've played 42 games, so do the math. They're 24/34 in league play. We've generally done a better job this year of controlling the run game, but we're going to have to be at our best this weekend. Also, Vanderbilt leads in the SEC in in-conference doubles with 37. They're a fast team and they're going to be aggressive on the bases.
Surprisingly, Vanderbilt leads in the SEC in conference errors with 30 (we are tied for fewest with 16). I say that's surprising because Vandy is a usually a pretty good defensive team.
Honestly, I'm more worried about this series just because of how we're playing. I don't expect us to be in a funk the rest of the way, but we're in one now and it's going to be a long weekend for us if it lingers.... and that would be the case if we were playing ANYONE in the SEC. It's going to take a much stronger effort than what we've shown over the last three games. The good news, though, is that I know that we have some good baseball in us. This is a winnable series if we play our best, coach our best, and have everyone "locked in". For Vanderbilt's part, despite their 8-10 record, this a team and program that knows how to win (at least until June).... they're not used to being sub .500, not accustomed to looking up at several teams in the SEC. They have a good weekend, or a couple of good weekends, left in them too. Their record at 8-10 almost scares me more than if they were 15-3. This is a very series for both programs and can serve to launch either group in either direction. As I said yesterday, there's something out there for us.... I really believe that.... but we have to start taking it now, this weekend.
