Serious question about 2022 Bama...

fdawg1103 · Aug 25, 2022

First off, I know full well the dangers of ever predicting the Bama decline. We've all done it over the years and we've all been proven wrong. IMO, Bama won't decline until Saban leaves. I've accepted that. So this question / conversation is NOT an attempt to suggest that Bama is in decline. At least not long term or significant decline.

HOWEVER....

Why is everyone (media and fans) so adamant that Bama is the clear best team in the country. It seems like ever since Saban declared that last year was a rebuilding year, the media has jumped and run with it. I've seen writers and heard radio folks make statements like "It's bama and everyone else" or "there's a clear top 3 teams but it starts with Bama" or "this is the Bama revenge tour" Etc...

I'm just curious why?

Bama's OL was barely average last year, ranking:

103rd in sacks allowed
111th in tackles for loss allowed
103rd in pressure percentage
66th in yards per contact per rush
67th in % rushes for no gain or loss

Consequently, Bama's run game also suffered, ranking:

74th in yards per run
74th in rush yards per game

Now, I'll freely admit that Young is the returning Heisman Trophy winner and was very very good last year, ranking:

7th in yards per game
7th in QB Rating
2nd in TDs
14th in yards per attempt
2nd in total yards
20th in completion percent

However, he's also losing his top two receivers who accounted for:

56% of his yards
49% of his TDs
48% of his completions

So offensively, they return an average OL with an average run game, an ELITE QB who's missing 50% of his production from year before.

Now, defensively, Bama was really good (elite) against the run but only average to below avg vs the pass, ranking:

93rd in completion % against
109th in passing yards allowed
32nd in passing yards per attempt allowed
95th in passing TDs allowed
63rd in passer rating allowed

So they had significant flaws and are replacing their best receiving weapons. So again, I ask, why is everyone (present company excluded obviously) convinced Bama is the clear cut frontrunner this year?

I think they will be really good as always, but I'm not convinced they will be appreciably better than last year. And IF the WRs and OL don't develop and get better, they could be a little worse.

Herschel_34 · Aug 25, 2022