Should he...
The answer is a straightforward "yes" with no need for qualification or debate.
In three years, Scott Stricklin is 32-56-1 in conference games. He has won 10 series in league play and lost 20. Worse yet, the high water mark in conference series victories came in his first year, when we collected four. In each of the past two seasons, in only 3 of 10 SEC weekends have we won a series. Perhaps even more damning than that is that 9 times over the past three seasons we have failed to win a game on the weekend... meaning that we are almost as likely to go winless in a conference series as we are to go at least 2-1.
For the third year in a row, Stricklin has failed to produce an overall winning record, at least in the regular season.
By my estimation, we will lose 5 of our top 7 hitters in terms of average. We will lose 42.5% of the home run production from this team, 93% of our stolen bases, 43% of our RBIs, 55% of innings pitched (that number balloons to 71% when only considering conference innings). Despite a concerted and obvious effort to characterize it this way, this was not a young team. 7 seniors were honored yesterday, including 3 every day members of the starting lineup and arguably our best pitcher. At least four juniors, all of whom were every day players or mainstays on the mound during the weekend, will be drafted and leave. And yet, all this head coach could wring from this group was 11 wins in 30 conference games, and a 10th place finish with the same 11 win total that put us in 12th place two years ago.
Coming into this weekend against Tennessee, the conventional wisdom was that we needed to sweep the Vols to keep our regional hopes intact. Here is the full list of teams that we have swept, over the span of 40 weekends* (I do not count the "Bulldog Invitational" weekends as we played three different teams in three days on those weekends in 2014 and 2016):
Binghamton
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee
Lipscomb
The list of teams that we have failed to beat at least once over a weekend in that same span:
Florida State
LSU - 2014
Florida
Vanderbilt - 2014
Georgia Southern
Missouri
Vanderbilt - 2015
LSU - 2015
Auburn
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt - 2016
That we failed to sweep Tennessee this weekend was hardly a surprise based on only the probability of it. That we failed to even win the league series was not an overly large surprise either, again based only on the probability of the occurrence.
Scott Stricklin told Anthony Dasher after the game yesterday that "the foundation is set" and the program is in "better shape" than it was 3 years ago. That's non-sense.
Programs with "set foundations" do not see 60% of the original signing class report to campus and no longer be part of the program by their sophomore year.
Programs with "set foundations" don't lose 100% of their drafted juniors over a two, and sure to be three, year period.
Programs with "set foundations" don't see starters or key contributors quit without being drafted and with eligibility left.
Programs with "set foundations" win more than 35% of their league games.
Programs with "set foundations" don't put forth an effort like we did yesterday.
Programs with "set foundations" don't have a hitting coach who multiple hitters say "can't teach us anything."
Programs with "set foundations" don't see juniors saying they'll sign for $1,000
Finally, programs with "set foundations" aren't mocked and ridiculed by professional scouts.
Scott Stricklin doesn't have a program here. He coaches a team, made up predominantly of contributors signed by the previous coach. He doesn't lead this group, he doesn't inspire anyone, he fills out the lineup card. And he "sucks the life out of everyone in the dugout"...
Last season Mississippi State finished in last place. They won the regular season league title yesterday. That's a program.
Last season LSU advanced to Omaha and lost a number of key contributors, such that the national outlets predicted an uphill climb for the Tigers. They finished 18-12 and should host a regional. That's a program.
Florida went to three straight College World Series from 2010 - 2012. They were hit hard on both sides of the draft (incoming freshman and juniors) and skirted around .500 all year long, but still made a regional. That's a program.
We went 10-19 in the conference last year and our coach before the season said that we'll cut down on passed balls and hit better with men in scoring position. We went from 23 passed balls to 12, but, conveniently, saw our wild pitch mark increase from 37 in 2015 to 70 this year. He told you how much he liked this year's freshmen, then we saw less and less of them as the season wore on. Programs with "set foundations" fix things that are wrong. Scott Stricklin's regime pushes a narrative.
I've heard it said plenty of times by people who have met him and spent time with him that "Scott Stricklin is a really good guy. Very likeable." I had that conversation yesterday, to which I responded "well, he talks a good game anyway." I know he makes a good impression on others. But that really makes me like him less. He doesn't have to treat his players and coaches the way he does. If you're going to be a prick, be a prick universally, not just to people who have no recourse as they're under your thumb by virtue of your position. I can't imagine Scott Stricklin would like to play for Scott Stricklin, or work for Scott Stricklin. His being a "great guy" to people who aren't under him is probably more about his trying to keep his high paying job than anything genuine. And I fell for it too, initially.
It hasn't worked with him and it never will. "Should he..." cannot be debated honestly.
Will he...
Unfortunately, this is a different story. I heard yesterday that McGarity has told Stricklin that "it's time to start winning" and that the current performance is "unacceptable" (two things which, frankly, should have gone without saying, or should have been said after 2014). I heard too that Stricklin was told that his job was safe. Of course, this alleged conversation occurred before the Tennessee series, so maybe and hopefully things the last few days have caused McGarity to change his mind. I cannot imagine that it would be a debate if Stricklin had been hired by Vince Dooley or Damon Evans.
Stricklin has apparently sold McGarity on the incoming class as being the group that will "turn around" Georgia baseball. Let me posit this question:
If we land on campus five players from the incoming signing class who eventually become top 15 round draft picks, 1) will we consider it a highly talented class? and 2) would three years of sub .500 finishes and a 33% SEC series win rate be acceptable?
I think the answers are 1) Of course and 2) Of course not.
This is the class that Scott Stricklin inherited. Ryan Lawlor was an 8th round pick last year. Robert Tyler, Stephen Wrenn, Connor Jones, and Syler Weber should all be taken in the top 15 rounds this June.
Scott Stricklin has already shown you he can't win with a highly talented signing class. Why believe him when he says otherwise?
Stricklin made sure to note to Dasher yesterday that we didn't play two teams who won't make it to Hoover (Arkansas and Auburn).... Though he didn't come out and say it, I took this to mean that he felt that we were a bit unlucky in not getting to play Arkansas or Auburn. I would counter that neither of those programs probably finish in 13th or 14th if they'd gotten to play us, and given that we just went 3-3 against the #11 and #12 teams in the league, I'm not sure that we would have fared much better in six games with Arkansas and Auburn. For that matter, if we replaced our series with Texas A&M and Miss State with Arkansas and Auburn, perhaps we get to 13 wins (perhaps not), but our RPI and schedule strength would be reduced significantly, so 13-17 then may not get us in anyway.
But this is what Stricklin does. He spins, he makes excuses (while telling you he's not making excuses), he points the finger at everyone but himself, and he tries to convince you that door #2 is going to somehow be different than what he's already shown you.
It's disappointing, but not altogether surprising, that Greg McGarity would buy that load of garbage. McGarity proved unable to properly evaluate this head coach the first time around (and don't give me the cop out that it was praised as a "good hire".... none of us are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to make those kinds of decisions correctly) so I'm not sure why McGarity would be able to properly evaluate him now.
Tennessee probably is going to fire Dave Serrano (who, by the way, has the same number of SEC wins over the past three years as Stricklin). I still think Serrano is an outstanding coach and I'd be thrilled if he was here next year. You saw how hard those Tennessee players fought for him the last two days. You saw how much energy they had. If McGarity actually watched the series this weekend, I can't imagine he didn't notice that too.
The Tennessee situation is what I'm afraid of happening here (though it seems less likely, given our local talent base). That program was such a wreck after Todd Raleigh, that even a guy like Dave Serrano has struggled tremendously to turn it around, to the point where it is likely going to cost him his job. Every year that we delay in removing Scott Stricklin is not only another year where we can expect these or worse results, but it also adds to the time that it will take rebuild the program. 2017 is going to be a tough year for us, regardless of who coaches us. But 2018 doesn't have to be...
Somehow, "Will he..." isn't nearly as clear as "Should he..." That's disappointing to me. Basically what Stricklin has done here is crash the ship into the rocks, set the cargo on fire, throw the crew overboard, and tell everyone else that tomorrow will be great sailing weather. And yet, there appears to be a question as to whether he will be replaced.
It's my hope that Scott Stricklin will do the graceful, and correct thing when the teams gets back to Athens and tender his resignation. I doubt that he's going to, but he should.. it would look better for him if he resigned and it would probably look better for McGarity too. He's probably cleared a little north of $1,000,000.00 after taxes for the time he put in here. Hopefully that's good enough him and all parties can start fresh in a few weeks.
The answer is a straightforward "yes" with no need for qualification or debate.
In three years, Scott Stricklin is 32-56-1 in conference games. He has won 10 series in league play and lost 20. Worse yet, the high water mark in conference series victories came in his first year, when we collected four. In each of the past two seasons, in only 3 of 10 SEC weekends have we won a series. Perhaps even more damning than that is that 9 times over the past three seasons we have failed to win a game on the weekend... meaning that we are almost as likely to go winless in a conference series as we are to go at least 2-1.
For the third year in a row, Stricklin has failed to produce an overall winning record, at least in the regular season.
By my estimation, we will lose 5 of our top 7 hitters in terms of average. We will lose 42.5% of the home run production from this team, 93% of our stolen bases, 43% of our RBIs, 55% of innings pitched (that number balloons to 71% when only considering conference innings). Despite a concerted and obvious effort to characterize it this way, this was not a young team. 7 seniors were honored yesterday, including 3 every day members of the starting lineup and arguably our best pitcher. At least four juniors, all of whom were every day players or mainstays on the mound during the weekend, will be drafted and leave. And yet, all this head coach could wring from this group was 11 wins in 30 conference games, and a 10th place finish with the same 11 win total that put us in 12th place two years ago.
Coming into this weekend against Tennessee, the conventional wisdom was that we needed to sweep the Vols to keep our regional hopes intact. Here is the full list of teams that we have swept, over the span of 40 weekends* (I do not count the "Bulldog Invitational" weekends as we played three different teams in three days on those weekends in 2014 and 2016):
Binghamton
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee
Lipscomb
The list of teams that we have failed to beat at least once over a weekend in that same span:
Florida State
LSU - 2014
Florida
Vanderbilt - 2014
Georgia Southern
Missouri
Vanderbilt - 2015
LSU - 2015
Auburn
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt - 2016
That we failed to sweep Tennessee this weekend was hardly a surprise based on only the probability of it. That we failed to even win the league series was not an overly large surprise either, again based only on the probability of the occurrence.
Scott Stricklin told Anthony Dasher after the game yesterday that "the foundation is set" and the program is in "better shape" than it was 3 years ago. That's non-sense.
Programs with "set foundations" do not see 60% of the original signing class report to campus and no longer be part of the program by their sophomore year.
Programs with "set foundations" don't lose 100% of their drafted juniors over a two, and sure to be three, year period.
Programs with "set foundations" don't see starters or key contributors quit without being drafted and with eligibility left.
Programs with "set foundations" win more than 35% of their league games.
Programs with "set foundations" don't put forth an effort like we did yesterday.
Programs with "set foundations" don't have a hitting coach who multiple hitters say "can't teach us anything."
Programs with "set foundations" don't see juniors saying they'll sign for $1,000
Finally, programs with "set foundations" aren't mocked and ridiculed by professional scouts.
Scott Stricklin doesn't have a program here. He coaches a team, made up predominantly of contributors signed by the previous coach. He doesn't lead this group, he doesn't inspire anyone, he fills out the lineup card. And he "sucks the life out of everyone in the dugout"...
Last season Mississippi State finished in last place. They won the regular season league title yesterday. That's a program.
Last season LSU advanced to Omaha and lost a number of key contributors, such that the national outlets predicted an uphill climb for the Tigers. They finished 18-12 and should host a regional. That's a program.
Florida went to three straight College World Series from 2010 - 2012. They were hit hard on both sides of the draft (incoming freshman and juniors) and skirted around .500 all year long, but still made a regional. That's a program.
We went 10-19 in the conference last year and our coach before the season said that we'll cut down on passed balls and hit better with men in scoring position. We went from 23 passed balls to 12, but, conveniently, saw our wild pitch mark increase from 37 in 2015 to 70 this year. He told you how much he liked this year's freshmen, then we saw less and less of them as the season wore on. Programs with "set foundations" fix things that are wrong. Scott Stricklin's regime pushes a narrative.
I've heard it said plenty of times by people who have met him and spent time with him that "Scott Stricklin is a really good guy. Very likeable." I had that conversation yesterday, to which I responded "well, he talks a good game anyway." I know he makes a good impression on others. But that really makes me like him less. He doesn't have to treat his players and coaches the way he does. If you're going to be a prick, be a prick universally, not just to people who have no recourse as they're under your thumb by virtue of your position. I can't imagine Scott Stricklin would like to play for Scott Stricklin, or work for Scott Stricklin. His being a "great guy" to people who aren't under him is probably more about his trying to keep his high paying job than anything genuine. And I fell for it too, initially.
It hasn't worked with him and it never will. "Should he..." cannot be debated honestly.
Will he...
Unfortunately, this is a different story. I heard yesterday that McGarity has told Stricklin that "it's time to start winning" and that the current performance is "unacceptable" (two things which, frankly, should have gone without saying, or should have been said after 2014). I heard too that Stricklin was told that his job was safe. Of course, this alleged conversation occurred before the Tennessee series, so maybe and hopefully things the last few days have caused McGarity to change his mind. I cannot imagine that it would be a debate if Stricklin had been hired by Vince Dooley or Damon Evans.
Stricklin has apparently sold McGarity on the incoming class as being the group that will "turn around" Georgia baseball. Let me posit this question:
If we land on campus five players from the incoming signing class who eventually become top 15 round draft picks, 1) will we consider it a highly talented class? and 2) would three years of sub .500 finishes and a 33% SEC series win rate be acceptable?
I think the answers are 1) Of course and 2) Of course not.
This is the class that Scott Stricklin inherited. Ryan Lawlor was an 8th round pick last year. Robert Tyler, Stephen Wrenn, Connor Jones, and Syler Weber should all be taken in the top 15 rounds this June.
Scott Stricklin has already shown you he can't win with a highly talented signing class. Why believe him when he says otherwise?
Stricklin made sure to note to Dasher yesterday that we didn't play two teams who won't make it to Hoover (Arkansas and Auburn).... Though he didn't come out and say it, I took this to mean that he felt that we were a bit unlucky in not getting to play Arkansas or Auburn. I would counter that neither of those programs probably finish in 13th or 14th if they'd gotten to play us, and given that we just went 3-3 against the #11 and #12 teams in the league, I'm not sure that we would have fared much better in six games with Arkansas and Auburn. For that matter, if we replaced our series with Texas A&M and Miss State with Arkansas and Auburn, perhaps we get to 13 wins (perhaps not), but our RPI and schedule strength would be reduced significantly, so 13-17 then may not get us in anyway.
But this is what Stricklin does. He spins, he makes excuses (while telling you he's not making excuses), he points the finger at everyone but himself, and he tries to convince you that door #2 is going to somehow be different than what he's already shown you.
It's disappointing, but not altogether surprising, that Greg McGarity would buy that load of garbage. McGarity proved unable to properly evaluate this head coach the first time around (and don't give me the cop out that it was praised as a "good hire".... none of us are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to make those kinds of decisions correctly) so I'm not sure why McGarity would be able to properly evaluate him now.
Tennessee probably is going to fire Dave Serrano (who, by the way, has the same number of SEC wins over the past three years as Stricklin). I still think Serrano is an outstanding coach and I'd be thrilled if he was here next year. You saw how hard those Tennessee players fought for him the last two days. You saw how much energy they had. If McGarity actually watched the series this weekend, I can't imagine he didn't notice that too.
The Tennessee situation is what I'm afraid of happening here (though it seems less likely, given our local talent base). That program was such a wreck after Todd Raleigh, that even a guy like Dave Serrano has struggled tremendously to turn it around, to the point where it is likely going to cost him his job. Every year that we delay in removing Scott Stricklin is not only another year where we can expect these or worse results, but it also adds to the time that it will take rebuild the program. 2017 is going to be a tough year for us, regardless of who coaches us. But 2018 doesn't have to be...
Somehow, "Will he..." isn't nearly as clear as "Should he..." That's disappointing to me. Basically what Stricklin has done here is crash the ship into the rocks, set the cargo on fire, throw the crew overboard, and tell everyone else that tomorrow will be great sailing weather. And yet, there appears to be a question as to whether he will be replaced.
It's my hope that Scott Stricklin will do the graceful, and correct thing when the teams gets back to Athens and tender his resignation. I doubt that he's going to, but he should.. it would look better for him if he resigned and it would probably look better for McGarity too. He's probably cleared a little north of $1,000,000.00 after taxes for the time he put in here. Hopefully that's good enough him and all parties can start fresh in a few weeks.
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