Still ain't interested in talking about AFG much, but good news on COVID. The 2021 Sunbelt Surge is beginning to end...

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

on projected schedule if not a *touch* early. The first two Southern states to start up were Missouri and Arkansas and...


Missouri has peaked and is rolling down.

Arkansas has peaked and is rolling down.

Texas may have peaked and begun decreasing.

I think Alabama and Georgia are very close to peak. Previously said Georgia would peak around 25 AUG +- a few days. It *may* be on the early side of 25 AUG. Georgia ER visits with COVID appear to have plateaued and positivity percentage has also stopped increasing. Those are two good indications we are close.

The rest of the South should follow in a cluster with GA/AL.

Continued (relatively) good news from the data - which of course the media does not point out - is that deaths seem to be staying relatively low in this surge. Deaths do lag and it will take more time for the data to develop but *right now* there are indications deaths have been decoupled from rising cases. This is good news for confidence in vaccines as symptom stoppers (not spread stoppers) and for natural immunity probably helping as well.

 

[atlanta cock#]

on projected schedule if not a *touch* early. The first two Southern states to start up were Missouri and Arkansas and...

Missouri has peaked and is rolling down.



Arkansas has peaked and is rolling down.



Texas may have peaked and begun decreasing.



I think Alabama and Georgia are very close to peak. Previously said Georgia would peak around 25 AUG +- a few days. It *may* be on the early side of 25 AUG. Georgia ER visits with COVID appear to have plateaued and positivity percentage has also stopped increasing. Those are two good indications we are close.

Continued (relatively) good news from the data - which of course the media does not point out - is that deaths seem to be staying relatively low in this surge. Deaths do lag and it will take more time for the data to develop but *right now* there are indications deaths have been decoupled from rising cases. This is good news for confidence in vaccines as symptom stoppers (not spread stoppers) and for natural immunity probably helping as well.

Exactly as Gottlieb projected. I keep telling you guys that Gottlieb and Ioaniddis are the only ones who have gotten it correct since the beginning. Listen to those 2 if you want to know what’s really going on.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

Exactly as Gottlieb projected. I keep telling you guys that Gottlieb and Ioaniddis are the only ones who have gotten it correct since the beginning. Listen to those 2 if you want to know what’s really going on.

Gottlieb missed badly on Delta. He said there would only be localized spikes in low vaccination areas and pointed specifically to Wyoming. Except it hasn't happened that way at all particularly in Wyoming.

But I will agree he is more right than most and definitely worth listening to. Everyone who has the balls to make a prediction is going to get it wrong sometimes and I give him and others grace as long as they extend that same grace to others.

 

[willdup]

on projected schedule if not a *touch* early. The first two Southern states to start up were Missouri and Arkansas and...


Missouri has peaked and is rolling down.

Arkansas has peaked and is rolling down.

Texas may have peaked and begun decreasing.

I think Alabama and Georgia are very close to peak. Previously said Georgia would peak around 25 AUG +- a few days. It *may* be on the early side of 25 AUG. Georgia ER visits with COVID appear to have plateaued and positivity percentage has also stopped increasing. Those are two good indications we are close.

The rest of the South should follow in a cluster with GA/AL.

Continued (relatively) good news from the data - which of course the media does not point out - is that deaths seem to be staying relatively low in this surge. Deaths do lag and it will take more time for the data to develop but *right now* there are indications deaths have been decoupled from rising cases. This is good news for confidence in vaccines as symptom stoppers (not spread stoppers) and for natural immunity probably helping as well.

I hope Florida begins to turn soon because right now it is not following the other trends you identified at all.

The good news is you could have added LA to your list of states that seem to be turning the corner.

Florida Coronavirus Map and Case Count

See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations in Florida.

www.nytimes.com

 

[kdsdawg]

I hope Florida begins to turn soon because right now it is not following the other trends you identified at all.

The good news is you could have added LA to your list of states that seem to be turning the corner.

Florida Coronavirus Map and Case Count

See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations in Florida.

www.nytimes.com

Florida is behind because of tourism numbers.

 

[atlanta cock#]

Gottlieb missed badly on Delta. He said there would only be localized spikes in low vaccination areas and pointed specifically to Wyoming. Except it hasn't happened that way at all particularly in Wyoming.

But I will agree he is more right than most and definitely worth listening to. Everyone who has the balls to make a prediction is going to get it wrong sometimes and I give him and others grace as long as they extend that same grace to others.

Nobody’s perfect, and I don’t think he claims to be Nostradamus. But almost 3 weeks ago he said it would peak in the South in about 3 weeks. I’d call that fairly accurate. Certainly better than Fauci, to be sure.

 

[magnolia93ugagrad]

on projected schedule if not a *touch* early. The first two Southern states to start up were Missouri and Arkansas and...


Missouri has peaked and is rolling down.

Arkansas has peaked and is rolling down.

Texas may have peaked and begun decreasing.

I think Alabama and Georgia are very close to peak. Previously said Georgia would peak around 25 AUG +- a few days. It *may* be on the early side of 25 AUG. Georgia ER visits with COVID appear to have plateaued and positivity percentage has also stopped increasing. Those are two good indications we are close.

The rest of the South should follow in a cluster with GA/AL.

Continued (relatively) good news from the data - which of course the media does not point out - is that deaths seem to be staying relatively low in this surge. Deaths do lag and it will take more time for the data to develop but *right now* there are indications deaths have been decoupled from rising cases. This is good news for confidence in vaccines as symptom stoppers (not spread stoppers) and for natural immunity probably helping as well.

I hope you are right. Idk about ER visits. Currently, every single Fulton County hospital is on ER Diversion not accepting ambulances with the exception of Northside Atlanta, CHOA and Johns Creek Emory. Not a great feeling of where one would be sent if in a car wreck, etc. Really wanting this all to end.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

I hope Florida begins to turn soon because right now it is not following the other trends you identified at all.

The good news is you could have added LA to your list of states that seem to be turning the corner.

Florida Coronavirus Map and Case Count

See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations in Florida.

www.nytimes.com

I almost added LA but more hesitant just because it was not as definitive as the other 3.

As for FL, it should also peak soon too. There is definitely something different about the FL data I will not claim to understand but I think that state too will see things start improving fairly soon.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

Nobody’s perfect, and I don’t think he claims to be Nostradamus. But almost 3 weeks ago he said it would peak in the South in about 3 weeks. I’d call that fairly accurate. Certainly better than Fauci, to be sure.

Definitely better than Fauci.

 

[willdup]

I hope you are right. Idk about ER visits. Currently, every single Fulton County hospital is on ER Diversion not accepting ambulances with the exception of Northside Atlanta, CHOA and Johns Creek Emory. Not a great feeling of where one would be sent if in a car wreck, etc. Really wanting this all to end.

New cases in GA have not bent the upward trend line yet. Given the lagging nature of hospitalizations, your post is very concerning.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

New cases in GA have not bent the upward trend line yet. Given the lagging nature of hospitalizations, your post is very concerning.

This is neither to dispute the OP nor to dismiss that hospitalizations are an important problem but without context I do not necessarily give much weight to such reports about hospitals on diversion, etc.

For example yesterday J was looking directly at LA website and their hospital capacity numbers. They should be close to the max utilization situation yet they were not over their capacity in any hospital region. Tight in areas? Yes. It is also true most hospitals stay at high utilization a great deal of the time.

Again, not minimizing it but there is little more documented fact of the COVID situation than people believing hospital situation is worse than it is.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

New cases in GA have not bent the upward trend line yet. Given the lagging nature of hospitalizations, your post is very concerning.

Here is graph of ER with COVID numbers. A definite plateau seems to have developed. Data artifact? Maybe. But paired with positivity percentage beginning to also round off it is potentially meaningful.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

New cases in GA have not bent the upward trend line yet. Given the lagging nature of hospitalizations, your post is very concerning.

Also on trend line bending, sometimes it rounds off but more often it hits a hard peak and then just starts back down. Missouri above rounded off but Arkansas and Texas appear to have that hard peak.

 

[magnolia93ugagrad]

This is neither to dispute the OP nor to dismiss that hospitalizations are an important problem but without context I do not necessarily give much weight to such reports about hospitals on diversion, etc.

For example yesterday J was looking directly at LA website and their hospital capacity numbers. They should be close to the max utilization situation yet they were not over their capacity in any hospital region. Tight in areas? Yes. It is also true most hospitals stay at high utilization a great deal of the time.

Again, not minimizing it but there is little more documented fact of the COVID situation than people believing hospital situation is worse than it is.

I wish I could tell you I didn't have first hand experience over the last 12 days with the diversions. My Mom was in a hospital with no neurologist on staff and we desperately needed one. I tried along with the Dr. for days on end to get her transferred to Emory, Kennestone, Grady, etc. and failed. There were ZERO beds. It was gut wrenching. I had never experienced a situation like this before. I found myself constantly clicking the refresh button for updates on the saturation and diversions. This is so far from over.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

I wish I could tell you I didn't have first hand experience over the last 12 days with the diversions. My Mom was in a hospital with no neurologist on staff and we desperately needed one. I tried along with the Dr. for days on end to get her transferred to Emory, Kennestone, Grady, etc. and failed. There were ZERO beds. It was gut wrenching. I had never experienced a situation like this before. I found myself constantly clicking the refresh button for updates on the saturation and diversions. This is so far from over.

Very sorry to hear that. However I will point out when my dad was dying with cancer in March 2019 and having serious complications we had to take him to the hospital on an emergency basis. It was a Northside Hospital facility.

They were on diversion and only took him because of severity. We still had to stay holed up in the ER for a long time while they made room for him upstairs and the ER itself was a mess.

Diversions happen in normal times. Hospitals can and do get full without COVID. I am not dismissing that COVID adds to the caseload at all but I think it is also proven true several times over the last year and a half that the degree of hospital strain was often overstated.

I have and continue to say those at risk should get vaccinated. Data supports it, and it would help with hospital capacity. However that does not logically lead to all the other unsubstantiated mitigation measures we now fall back to on a reflexive basis. I can tell you first hand that at least in our school system it is a horrendous mess of quarantines for students which I defy anyone to tell me are necessary or justified to reduce hospitalizations or anything else.

We have got to get to a point where the real problems and actually effective solutions are the basis of discussion and not all these theatrical measures we continue to torture ourselves with. IMO.

 

[Gfunk20]

on projected schedule if not a *touch* early. The first two Southern states to start up were Missouri and Arkansas and...


Missouri has peaked and is rolling down.

Arkansas has peaked and is rolling down.

Texas may have peaked and begun decreasing.

I think Alabama and Georgia are very close to peak. Previously said Georgia would peak around 25 AUG +- a few days. It *may* be on the early side of 25 AUG. Georgia ER visits with COVID appear to have plateaued and positivity percentage has also stopped increasing. Those are two good indications we are close.

The rest of the South should follow in a cluster with GA/AL.

Continued (relatively) good news from the data - which of course the media does not point out - is that deaths seem to be staying relatively low in this surge. Deaths do lag and it will take more time for the data to develop but *right now* there are indications deaths have been decoupled from rising cases. This is good news for confidence in vaccines as symptom stoppers (not spread stoppers) and for natural immunity probably helping as well.

Don’t tell WSBTV that. They’re app constantly sends negative push notifications about COVID. Like there is never anything positive from them on COVID. Keep feeding the fear to everyone. About to delete their app….

 

[Gfunk20]

Exactly as Gottlieb projected. I keep telling you guys that Gottlieb and Ioaniddis are the only ones who have gotten it correct since the beginning. Listen to those 2 if you want to know what’s really going on.

Who are these guys and how do you listen to them?

 

[atlanta cock#]

Who are these guys and how do you listen to them?

Gottlieb is the former head of the FDA. Ioaniddis is a medical scientist at Stanford. They’re not podcasters. They will occasionally publish something or more likely provide a statement or an interview that is picked up by various online or legacy publications. Just Google them. Gottlieb has appeared several times lately on CNBC.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

Don’t tell WSBTV that. They’re app constantly sends negative push notifications about COVID. Like there is never anything positive from them on COVID. Keep feeding the fear to everyone. About to delete their app….

This is what keeps this alive beyond the reality of the summer Sunbelt / Delta surge.

People are wildly uneducated about the actual risk of this, and so are easily manipulated.

Or in many instances they have become "radicalized individuals' who have become so convinced of the danger and how it only exists because some selfish (Republican) is doing something horrific that they start taking action on their own.

I saw several tonight. They are so hopelessly lost in excessive fear and factless loathing of the bad people causing COVID they are impossible to engage. But we keep talking about masks and vaccine mandates because of them.