We’re a week away from the Dawgs taking on Alabama in Tuscaloosa. There’s also a potential tropical system developing in the NW Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico. A week away means it’s game week for college football… a week away for tropical forecasts is an eternity.
^^that. At this point in forecasting, we’re seeing a significant signal that a tropical storm or hurricane is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is impossible to know where it will go at this point. There are trends we can analyze which will indicate a possible formation zone and forecast track, but confidence is extremely low (near 5-10%) for even the best forecast models 150+ hours out.
If you were looking at the model data Friday morning, you’d be saying there was a trend toward developing this in the far SW Gulf of Mexico, with a track toward Louisiana. Saturday morning? It’d be eastern Gulf with a track toward the Big Bend of Florida. Tomorrow’s update? It will be another shift.
All of that to say this: do not believe anything yet and do not make adjustments to your trip Tuscaloosa.
Just stay updated. I will provide another look at this once we have a better idea of what to expect… probably Monday or Tuesday of next week.
^^that. At this point in forecasting, we’re seeing a significant signal that a tropical storm or hurricane is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is impossible to know where it will go at this point. There are trends we can analyze which will indicate a possible formation zone and forecast track, but confidence is extremely low (near 5-10%) for even the best forecast models 150+ hours out.
If you were looking at the model data Friday morning, you’d be saying there was a trend toward developing this in the far SW Gulf of Mexico, with a track toward Louisiana. Saturday morning? It’d be eastern Gulf with a track toward the Big Bend of Florida. Tomorrow’s update? It will be another shift.
All of that to say this: do not believe anything yet and do not make adjustments to your trip Tuscaloosa.
Just stay updated. I will provide another look at this once we have a better idea of what to expect… probably Monday or Tuesday of next week.
