Reasons for Concern
Reasons for Optimism
Saving my predictions for now, other than a UGA win, but if we don't lose the turnover battle -2, we should win with a little room to spare unless we're horrendous in the redone on offense and defense. Note that if Kentucky had not lost the turnover battle (they were -3 plus a fake punt, which was effectively -4), they probably beat Mizzou. And we aren't Kentucky.
- Mizzou is the most balanced team we’ve faced thus far. They are the best overall offensive unit we’ve faced (11th in YPP against P5) as well as the best defensive unit (52nd in YPP, which interestingly, still trails Ole Miss and Tennessee who are next up after Mizzou). And it’s not just a product of home and away. Although Mizzou has had an easy road schedule to date, with only Kentucky presenting a real challenge, in that UK game, Mizzou held UK below its average YPP on offense and defense.
- Mizzou’s stats are heavily influenced by its game against LSU, which is the top YPP team in the country and which had 8.09 YPP against Mizzou. Also, while YPP is a good metric, it has significant flaws because of schedule variation. Mizzou, for instance, is behind UNC and TCU in YPP, and no one thinks Mizzou’s D is worse than the D of either of those two programs. If you look at common opponents only (SCjr, Vandy, and UK), Mizzou gave up only 4.97 YPP compared to our 4.68 YPP. Not a huge difference. While we are better than Mizzou on D, the reality is that we haven’t faced an offense comparable to LSU’s, which would also negatively impact our statistical ranking.
- On offense, we have a slightly higher spread against common opponents, with UGA averaging 7.04 YPP to Mizzou’s 6.16 YPP. Our net YPP against common opponents is 2.36 compared to their 1.19. That’s a real difference, but not the kind of difference that can’t be erased by turnovers and/or redzone issues.
- The other concern is that while Mizzou struggled with LSU, they are generally decent against the pass. They held SC, a decent passing team, below its average YPA in a beatdown of the Gamecocks. Mizzou’s D is fairly balanced, with roughly identical YPP rankings against the pass and run.
- Mizzou has a bye week, and we have struggled against opening scripts. The bye week will allow them more time on script.
Reasons for Optimism
- We are a better team on each side of the ball. We’d like the spread to be greater, but the spread is there. And against a UF team that was better than Vandy or SCjr, our offense outperformed its average against other SEC teams. We’re better when we need to be better.
- Mizzou received the benefit of the UGA hangover effect against UK. UK hasn’t been the same since we played them. And UK is the only legit road game Mizzou played this year.
- Mizzou hasn’t faced any good passing defenses in their P5 games. Literally zero. The best passing D among the P5 teams they played (measured by YPA against P5 teams) was Kansas State, at 59. Vandy is 90. Kentucky is 93. LSU is 105. SCjr is 110. Note, however, that Mizzou did face Middle Tennessee State, which has performed well against P5 offenses. Mizzou barely won, and their overall offensive stats were down that game (low in total passing yards, but higher in YPA). [note: we haven’t faced a good passing D either]. And importantly, Mizzou hasn’t been forced to play against a good passing defense on the road, where the offense is working off a silent count and generally faces more pressure with less time to throw
- While Mizzou has done reasonably well against teams that are good at passing or good at rushing, they haven’t done well against a team that is good at both. LSU is really the only balanced team they faced, and LSU torched the Mizzou D (over 8 YPP). While we don’t have Jaylon Daniels, we have a much better offensive line. On offense, UGA is Top 15 against P5 teams in YPA, passing yards per game, average rush, and rushing yards per game. The only other team which can say the same is LSU, although Oregon is almost there (just outside Top 15 in YPA passing). It seems that Mizzou has the kind of D that can take away what you do best, but not the type of D that stop the pass and run if you do both well. We do both.
- We’re at home. In games that have mattered, where losing was anticipated as a real possibility (i.e., not the noon game against SCjr in 2019) and where we had something to play for, we’ve generally outperformed expectations. I haven’t gone back and analyzed the output versus the spread, but I’m sure we covered against Tennessee and Auburn in 2020, against Arkansas in 2021, UK in 2023, and most famously, against Tennessee in 2022. Even going back to Notre Dame in 2019, and we didn’t realize it at the time, we were probably playing better than we really were and the home crowd helped. I’d be surprised if we were less than 75% ATS in these types of games, and in many cases, we significantly over performed.
- While Mizzou is playing better, how much of that is them peaking and how much of it is them coming into favorable matchups at the right time? The loss against LSU (at Mizzou) is viewed as part of Mizzou's resurgence, but Mizzou lost a game where they nearly scored 40 points at home. Then they beat UK during a hangover week after a loss to UGA and followed that up with a solid win against a pretty bad SCjr team who had lost 3 of its previous 4 games (starting with a loss to UGA, followed by losses to Tennessee and Florida). Mizzou is getting teams when they're on their downward trajectory. That won't be the case this Saturday.
Saving my predictions for now, other than a UGA win, but if we don't lose the turnover battle -2, we should win with a little room to spare unless we're horrendous in the redone on offense and defense. Note that if Kentucky had not lost the turnover battle (they were -3 plus a fake punt, which was effectively -4), they probably beat Mizzou. And we aren't Kentucky.
