Most likely scenario: (1) Mich; (2) Wash; (3) FSU; and (4) Texas. This scenario hold everything steady for all conference winners that were in top four and moves up top ranked one loss conference winner. It avoids jumping one winner over another winner. The controversy here will be leaving out SEC all together. Moreover, it is clear you are not getting 4 best teams.
Next most likely: (1) Mich; (2) Wash; (3) Texas; and (4) Bama. This grouping is 4 best conference winners and presents some great match-ups. It avoids the Texas/Bama head to head issue. But is screws FSU who in an undefeated conference winner, has been ranked above Bama and Texas from outset of rankings, and won during championship week. They get jumped by two teams, both of whom lost a game.
Outside chance: (1) Mich; (2) Wash; (3) FSU; and (4) UGA. This is the committee keeping all 4 of its final four in the CFP. It recognizes a narrow loss by UGA in a game where they had a number of temporary injuries that can be recovered from by CFP. While they won’t admit it, the controversy over 4th and 4 might be factored in as well. This scenario avoids the Texas/Bama head to head.
