Well that cleared things up.
- Thread starter BlessedDawg
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Because some things matter more than a single person’s ego. Biden is a mensch.
KJP and others are saying it’s not health related or because he couldn’t do the job. That just confirms that power and money forced him out because of poor poll numbers and he was going to be soundly defeated. What does that say about the Dem’s view of democracy and the will of the voters?
Hard to turn down those Jimmy Hoffa offers
I partially agree what you are getting at here, if by "Dem's" you mean the DNC.
They made a huge mistake (though it wasn't solely or uniquely theirs). It's fairly uncommon (at least in my memory) - for a sitting president to face very real challengers during the primaries, but the DNC went one step further, essentially shutting them down. It wasn't when Biden showed up like a ghost to that June debate that they acted undemocratically, it was in the run up.
I am not going to argue about it or go deeper with it - the two party system under our current Campaign Finance regime is fundamentally undemocratic. I can't stand the DNC. Jamie Harrison can gfh. The RNC doesn't even exist anymore except as a wing of Trump's family business. But neither organization has had much meaning for at least a decade now. Maybe longer. Hard to gauge the tipping point.
What’s the deal with Harrison ? i know nothing about him. But have seen him do a couple of interviews. I was kinda impressed with how he articulated his case.
Harrison, in a nutshell, is peak political grift/spendthrift. Total political creature. Yes, very smart. He was a lawyer, hand picked, trained, and elevated by Jim Clyburn to take on Lindsay Graham. He raised stupid numbers in the most expensive senate race ever to basically lose to Graham by double-digits. He spent something like $170 per vote to Graham's $80. Then, as some quid pro quo for Clyburn getting behind Joe's nomination in 2020, Biden then put him in the chair.
I didn't even have to google any of that because I know it because he symbolizes, to me, everything wrong with the financial structure of American campaign politics.
In spite of our clear political differences, you've always been very straightforward and have debated in good faith.
So, I'll ask you this: Do you believe Kamala will defeat Trump in November? If so, why? You can elaborate as much as you'd like.
I can’t tell anymore if people are being sarcastic but do people actually believe this? Not trying to start another argument I just have to know if people are still buying this from the media even now knowing they have been helping to cover him up for the past year or more
Of course I know he was pressured to come to this decision (but no I don’t believe mafia tactics were employed). They just said look you can keep running but you will lose gloriously and you won’t have enough financial support to even mount a credible race, do you want that to be your legacy Joe? And I believe Joe would run if it were only up to him, but I also believe that he could have been stubborn and said **** all yall, Im running, I know Trump would have. Instead Joe actually cared about something other than himself. He wasn’t willing to tear the whole thing down with him. We know from Trump’s behavior between 11/7/2020 and 1/20/2021 that Trump doesn’t give a shit about anything but himself.
I think the main thing there is Joe has always seen himself as a “democrat”. Trump isn’t towing the party line - no I’m not saying he is some great patriot but his roots in the Republican Party are nil compared to Biden in his party- (his own “party” has also attacked him plenty - Trump that is)
Anyway thanks for your thoughts.
I think she can. I think there are numbers that show she can.
Whether or not she will or not can't be known at this time and anyone saying so is just caught in the churn.
Sticking only to the quantitative:
1) The fundraising numbers speak to pent up demand. They're not fake. It's not billion or even millionaires (though I am sure they will pay to play)... it's pent up demand from small dollar donors aka voters. I gave. I had not planned to give to the Biden campaign.
2) I am not going to go dig up the polling right now, but it's there for you at your preferred poll aggregator. The Democratic incumbent senators in must-win swing states and others with quality polling have been running well ahead of Biden and Trump. This was, I believe, the determining factor for a lot of people who believe that Joe was the problem (and not just because he is too feeble to both govern and campaign). For instance: I don't even consider Ohio a swing state, and Sherrod Brown is running safely ahead of Moreno.
Fundamentally and ironically, imho, until I see numbers that say something different we are probably looking at the race we thought we were getting before the cataclysm of the last few weeks - a rerun of 2020. Close. Probably too close to call on election night.
Check back with me before the convention.
What do you think?
You sound like a kid in winter who is wish-casting for snow bc there is a test at school the next day. Cameltoe isn't winning.
Even Barry won't endorse.
Report: Obama Doubts Kamala Harris Can Beat Trump, Will Not Endorse
Former President Barack Obama reportedly does not believe that Vice President Kamala Harris can beat former President Donald Trump.
www.breitbart.com
July Polls: Trump Crushes Harris in 13 National Surveys
Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in 13 national polls published in the month of July.
www.breitbart.com
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Because his cabinet threatened to use the 25th amendment on him. That’s why.
The fundraising is wild, Ill give you that. I just think shes an empty shell , just like Biden is. It seems to me that the Dems dont want a powerful candidate anymore, they want someone they can control. And both sides do this too, so its not just the Dems.
I dont think any polling right now is worth much. I think we will really know in 2-3 weeks once the new car smell wears off KH and we start to discuss policy , we will see. She has no policies except she was the most liberal Senator in the Senate in 2018 and 2019. Even more than Sanders and Warren. I think if goofy Trump can stay disciplined and focus on policy and not name calling , he can win. This remains to be seen w Trump though lol.
I think black and brown men are going to flee from voting for her , but she will pick up some of the womens vote.
I agree about current polling of the presidential race - read what I wrote and go look at the Senate polling in Ohio Wisconsin PA AZ even NV - Biden lagging the candidates. all I said was there is opportunity there.
Biden is NOT a mensch.......More like a navahl!!!!!
Another maga person speaks as a know it all, when he or she illustrates that they know very little. Biden dropped out because he did not want a fractured party going into the convention. Concern yourself with you maga voters and not the democratic voters. By dropping out of the race, Biden pulled off a masterful move that has totally confused the eroding maga crowd, a checkmate that cannot be countered.
LOL, Biden was in the race right up until he wasn’t. The money dried up and he was forced to drop out. You can drink the Koolaide that he sacrificed himself on the sword to save the party but 50 years of being a politician says otherwise. Biden is not mentally capable of designing the master plan you speak of. What about the will of the voter from the primary, do they not matter? It was a coup, just without guns, maybe.
I think this is sound advice for the MAGA crowd. Deal with your own issues. But it cuts both ways: Ds gotta focus where it counts and not get distracted playing patty-cake.
Politics are dirty man. It is funny to hear the fairy tale stories in here about Joe sacrificing himself for the good of the party. Being more about the country and the party and less about himself. I am dying over here reading this shit. Joe is a mirror of Trump in a lot of ways.
Nancy herself gave the warning in her words. We can do this the easy way or the hard way. Joe himself said he wasn’t doing anything until after the Netanyahu meeting. They went to see him and gave him the ultimatum. He was telling his own camp up to Saturday he wasn’t going anywhere. Then a makeshift letter comes out Sunday without his real signature on it. Someone just finally hit the right pressure point.
It is so bad over there, they can only nominate Kamala. Nancy wouldn’t even endorse her to be the vp again less than a year ago. It is a circus. Anyone thinking Joe didn’t go kicking and screaming is living in a fairy tale. I have my issues with Joe, but that guy never gave up. Ever. Not in his dna. He outlived the racial jungle comment, being thrown out of an election for plagiarizing, the predator law, etc.
This man called Barack the first well spoken, clean cut African American he had ever seen run for president. If that wasn’t bad enough they gave him the vp nod. Kind of mirrors Kamala calling him a racist and getting the nod. I give him credit. He could have bowed out. He knows his brain is fried. He still believed he could do the job, despite not even being able to read the teleprompter last night. He made at least ten gaffes just reading.
Nancy herself gave the warning in her words. We can do this the easy way or the hard way. Joe himself said he wasn’t doing anything until after the Netanyahu meeting. They went to see him and gave him the ultimatum. He was telling his own camp up to Saturday he wasn’t going anywhere. Then a makeshift letter comes out Sunday without his real signature on it. Someone just finally hit the right pressure point.
It is so bad over there, they can only nominate Kamala. Nancy wouldn’t even endorse her to be the vp again less than a year ago. It is a circus. Anyone thinking Joe didn’t go kicking and screaming is living in a fairy tale. I have my issues with Joe, but that guy never gave up. Ever. Not in his dna. He outlived the racial jungle comment, being thrown out of an election for plagiarizing, the predator law, etc.
This man called Barack the first well spoken, clean cut African American he had ever seen run for president. If that wasn’t bad enough they gave him the vp nod. Kind of mirrors Kamala calling him a racist and getting the nod. I give him credit. He could have bowed out. He knows his brain is fried. He still believed he could do the job, despite not even being able to read the teleprompter last night. He made at least ten gaffes just reading.
He didn't drop out he was kicked out by the elitist!!!!
So tired of the dim talking point, Trump only cares about himself. Nothing could be further from the truth.
not really but it sure would be nice for our leaders to be truthful and transparent.
I think she has a chance, but it will take a near-perfect campaign on her end and Trump to say something really, really stupid -- or at least, out of context, that Dems can run non-stop for months leading up to the election. And that is very much possible.
As the last 4 elections (including midterms) have shown us, polls cannot be trusted. But even going off polling, it seems that Trump is polling very well right now, even better than he did at his pre-election peak in 2016. Many of the polls I see are weighted (D+8 on several, for instance), and Trump is neck-and-neck and even leading in some of them. For the general election, you would expect Kamala to need about a 3.5-4% margin of victory in the popular vote to beat Trump.
I'll admit, even I'm a bit surprised at how negatively she is viewed by black voters, especially black men. It's not a huge surprise considering how she treated them as San Francisco's AG, but that is a voting bloc that she will absolutely need in order to win. Republicans always fall for the "[GOP Candidate] can win 20-25% of the black vote this election!" lie, but Trump did improve from 8% to 12% in the past two elections. I don't think 13-15% is out of the question, and there will probably be some 2020 Biden voters who decide not to vote or go third party this time around.
The GOP advertising couldn't be easier. Tie her to Biden, talk about how she treated Black Californians as San Fran AG, her tenure as the "border czar", and how she was ranked as the most liberal Senator (more than Bernie even!!!) by GovTrack in 2019.
As to your points:
1. I agree about the fundraising demand; however, I don't see the tie-in to new Democratic voters. In other words, nothing about this signifies anyone who would not have voted for Biden in 2024, but would vote for Harris. I think the demand is more about existing Democrat voters, who already hate Trump and were already "vote blue no matter who" but knew they had no leg to stand on with Biden, now seeing this as a fresh opportunity. And that is not enough to win an election.
2. I agree here as well, and this is probably the safety blanket for anyone who fears another Trump presidency. The Dems will fare pretty decently in the House, and even the Senate. This could not be a better Senate map for the GOP, but there is a very real chance they only come out with 51 Senate seats, when they should be at 54 or 55. (WV goes red with Manchin gone, and I think Tester is done in MT, but the Dems hold serve elsewhere.) The House will be very close either way, probably inside 225 seats for the victor party there as well.
It's still early as you said, but I think Trump pulls it out unless he loudmouths his way into defeat. And that is definitely on the table, but I like what I've seen from him so far.
What information do you have that indicates this? only polling I have seen is partisan/campaign polling.
Combination of polling and betting markets. Those can be unreliable and a bit hard to believe at times (for instance, Brown is actually a slight underdog in the betting market in Ohio), but they are still useful pieces of information.
But hey, there is plenty of value on Democrat Senate candidates around the country. If you want to make a little money, it seems like a great opportunity. The odds as of today:
General: Dems +300 to control Senate
MT: Tester +185 vs Sheehy (worst odds of any Dem candidate in toss-up races)
OH: Brown +110 vs Moreno
NV: Rosen -140 vs Brown
AZ: Gallegos -200 vs Lake (can't believe this one isn't worse, Lake has no shot)
MI: Slotkin -240 vs Rogers
WI: Baldwin -300 vs Hovde
PA: Casey -300 vs McCormick
don't take this personally - I have friends who track them - but I think political betting markets are a waste of everyone's time and, imho, deleterious in the same way that gambling generally can be. My quant friends prefer Polymarket and, of course, when I object to their usefullness they say, "well, if you think dems are so obviously underfunded, you should place a bet."
but whatever
I see no non-partisan or non-campaign polling for senate in MT, but if you'd like to share, I would love to see it. I see an oil and gas poll that says Sheehy +5 as the only MT polling since June, so as far as I am concerned it's all just fee-fees and priors right now (though, sure, Sheehy could beat Tester, no question, but I loved this: "John Tester has farm equipment that's been in Montana longer than Tim Sheehy.")
anyway, good talk. just so you know where I am coming from : I will value polling of the current race(s) beginning maybe August 15.
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No issues here with your logic. However, political betting does generally provide an edge that sports betting (or gambling in general, as you mentioned) does not. For instance, Joe Biden was at one point +2000 (20-to-1!) to be the Democrat nominee in 2020. It was such incredible value that anyone paying attention simply had to take part in. I regret not taking more action on it, personally.
There really aren't any non-partisan polls in Montana, for whatever reason. I can't imagine that longevity in the state would be that crucial of a deciding factor -- if it were, then Chicago-born, Minnesota-educated Jacky Rosen will have one hell of a time getting re-elected in Nevada.
Do you know people who live currently in Montana? because I do ... and longevity in the state is not worth nothing.
(There is a real sense that they have been invaded) (also: it might be enough that Trump is on the ballot in a year when Tester is trying for re-election, as we both know that Montana is something just shy of +20 Republican)
Yes, I know several. And I visit the state annually when I go up for Sturgis. In fact, I'll be there next week for a ride to Our Lady of the Rockies statue in Butte.
I also never said longevity in the state is "worth nothing", just that it isn't that crucial of a deciding factor. And it isn't -- but to the extent that it is, it favors right-wing candidates. Montana is a deep red state, which means they value faith, family, patriotism and hard work. Most of the ire in that state towards transplants are for the wealthy liberals from California who move to Montana and don't respect the values of the state. That's what they mean by "being invaded".
Tester is in the Senate because he's one of the very few true moderates left in the Dem party, and the GOP does not run good Senate candidates there (Sheehy looks like he'll finally break that trend). It's not because he was born and raised in Montana.
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