First, let me acknowledge that after 15 years, we may have to take a risk and at least make an attempt to find someone that can deliver championships at UGA. However, it's not like an obvious solution is just staring us in the face. Guys like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Jimbo Fisher, Art Briles, Gary Patterson, Mark Dantonio, Jim Harbaugh, David Shaw, or even Les Miles are not about to leave their current jobs for UGA. So, unless Philly fires Chip Kelly and he just happens to be available to UGA rather than Southern Cal or some other school, here's what the candidate pool would look like:
That's why this is such a tough call. If we were 4-8, then of course we'd change coaches because there would be nowhere to go but up. But when you win 9-10 games per year, have won a pair of SEC titles, 5 division titles, and have at least come close to playing for a national title on 3 separate occasions, whereas recruiting is still going well and the players haven't given up on the staff, it's much harder to make a change. After all, Ohio State firing John Cooper and doing better afterwards is the rare exception. Most others who have fired winning coaches got worse rather than better.
Again, after 15 years, it may be a risk worth taking. But it is clearly a risk. Personally, if i were AD, there's only 1 name on that entire list that I would favor over keeping Richt and that's Tom Herman. I'd be willing to roll the dice on him being the next big thing in college coaching. Could easily get burned, but the upside is big enough that it's the one name for which I'd be willing to risk my own career. I'd rather keep Richt than hire any of the others. And by the way, I happen to think we'll lose Saturday and that doesn't change my opinion.
- Kirby Smart: Great record as DC at Bama, but has never been a HC before and Saban happens to be a defensive HC, placing doubt on how much of that success is really due to Kirby in the first place. How do we know what we're really getting? Could there be a reason he's been consistently passed-over for HC jobs in recent years?
- Dan Mullen: Does winning 60% of your games at MSU really translate to championships at UGA?
- Tom Herman: Could be the next big thing in college coaching, but could also be fool's gold based on less than 1 season so far. Very small sample size and it's hard to judge coaches from that program. Is he the next Art Briles (legit), or the next Kevin Sumlin (overrated)?
- Justin Fuente: Is he really an ace coach, or does he just look like one because he happens to have a future NFL QB in a conference where such talent is rare? Remember when UCF won a BCS bowl with Blake Bortles at QB? Well, George O'Leary just announced his retirement mid-season and his team is now 0-10 without a guy like that.
- Kyle Whittingham: Great track record at Utah, but if he leaves (not a given at all since he spent his entire life in that state), Southern Cal is the far more likely destination.
- Larry Fedora: Finally leading the ACC Coastal, but was on the hot seat until now after producing several mediocre seasons at UNC.
- Pat Narduzzi: Doing just ok at Pitt so far (6-3 and unranked) and he's been a HC less than a year.
- Brent Venables: Built an outstanding defense at Clemson and recruits well. But has never been a head coach before.
- Rich Rodriguez: I respect the guy for overachieving at WVU, but he didn't do so well when he had his shot at the big time at Michigan and, a year after winning the Pac 12 South, he may not even qualify for a bowl this year.
- Mike Leach: UGA isn't likely to fire Richt and replace him with a brash guy that got fired from Texas Tech. It's just not in our DNA. Plus, it has taken Leach 4 years at WSU just to produce a winning record.
- Mike Gundy: Interesting name on some coaching hot boards, but conflicting reports on whether he'd really consider leaving OSU. Plus, he's known as a pretty volatile personality who has never gotten along well with his AD and therefore may not be a likely UGA target.
- Chad Morris: Was a hot OC, but he's 1-8 so far at SMU and Clemson is actually doing better without him.
- Mike Bobo: Did well as OC at UGA, but was still heavily criticized at times and he's 4-5 so far at CSU. Realistically, you don't solve the fan discontent by firing Richt and giving them someone they criticized for all the same reasons.
- Brian Van Gorder: Was a great DC for UGA and is doing well as DC at Notre Dame now. But he's a classic case of a DC who doesn't make a good head coach as he failed miserably in his only HC gig at Ga Southern and was fired after only 1 season.
- Matt Rhule: Having a great year at Temple but his biggest career win was over an unranked Penn State team and he was 8-16 until this season. Plus if success at Temple translated to championships at a Power 5 school, Miami wouldn't have just fired their coach mid-season and Boston College wouldn't be in last place in the ACC as both Al Golden and Steve Adazzio also did well at Temple.
- Matt Campbell: Averaging 8-9 wins a year at Toledo, but so did Tim Beckman and he failed miserably at Illinois.
- Mark Hudspeth: Reputable coach with a strong record at U La La but no one knows this guy and it seems he's at least 1 more career move away from the big time.
- Jeff Brohm: Doing well at Western Kentucky but inherited a winning program from his former boss, Bobby Petrino. Leading C-USA in his 2nd season. Possibly big upside but small sample size and therefore hard to judge.
- Dana Holgorsen: He's just been average at WVU so far.
- Mack Brown: No way they replace one 'good but not great' coach with another of the exact same pedigree.
- Butch Davis: Wants back in coaching but failed at UNC and was surrounded by scandal. UGA would NOT be likely to target him, yet he's among the leaders to get his old job back at Miami.
- Tommy Tuberville: Fired for not winning consistently at Auburn, didn't do well at Texas Tech, and is only 5-4 at Cincy.
- Greg Schiano: Did ok at Rutgers but never won the Big East there and failed in the NFL. Plus, he has no connections to Georgia.
- Bill O'Brien: He's not going to quit the NFL on his own, but if he got fired, he'd be an interesting choice for someone as he managed through the probation situation pretty well at Penn State. Even so, what makes anyone think that winning 7-8 games per year at PSU and failing in the NFL would translate to championships at UGA?
- Mike Shula: Doing well as the Panther's OC but failed miserably as HC at Bama. Considered a much less-successful version of Richt.
- Derek Dooley: Doing ok as OC in Dallas but failed as HC at both Tennessee and Louisiana Tech.
- Lane Kiffin: Scandal waiting to happen and was not a successful head coach despite 3 attempts at Oakland, Tennessee, and Southern Cal.
- Mark Stoops: Has improved UK since he got there, but after 3 seasons is still hovering around .500.
- Willie Fritz: In-state guy at Ga Southern, but does 3rd place in the Sunbelt translate to championships in the SEC?
- Jeremy Pruitt: Good DC and recruiter, but has never been a HC before and apparently has burned bridges big time with the UGA administration.
- Brian Schottenheimer: The only other potential internal candidate and he doesn't have a prayer of getting the job based on how his offense has performed so far.
- David Shaw: Some may not agree with me that he's untouchable, but I'll remind those people that he's a Stanford alum, already makes $3.2 million/year, he's already in the playoff mix and can dominate the Pac 12 North now that Oregon is regressing, he already has access to great recruiting turf, he has a big buyout, Stanford would counter-offer to keep him, and he has no ties whatsoever to UGA or this region. So, I honestly don't think he's even an option.
That's why this is such a tough call. If we were 4-8, then of course we'd change coaches because there would be nowhere to go but up. But when you win 9-10 games per year, have won a pair of SEC titles, 5 division titles, and have at least come close to playing for a national title on 3 separate occasions, whereas recruiting is still going well and the players haven't given up on the staff, it's much harder to make a change. After all, Ohio State firing John Cooper and doing better afterwards is the rare exception. Most others who have fired winning coaches got worse rather than better.
Again, after 15 years, it may be a risk worth taking. But it is clearly a risk. Personally, if i were AD, there's only 1 name on that entire list that I would favor over keeping Richt and that's Tom Herman. I'd be willing to roll the dice on him being the next big thing in college coaching. Could easily get burned, but the upside is big enough that it's the one name for which I'd be willing to risk my own career. I'd rather keep Richt than hire any of the others. And by the way, I happen to think we'll lose Saturday and that doesn't change my opinion.
