Winter Storm 2025 [Updated Thurs AM]

Blocker57 · 2025-01-08T22:55:15-0500

Thursday AM Update: There was a pretty significant shift in the overnight data, which shows lower snow totals and higher sleet and freezing rain totals. However, I initially went on the lower end of the guidance for most locations, so we're still mostly within range. Pertaining to snow, I slightly decreased the max potential pretty much across the board. (Ex: Went from 1-3" to 1-2"). Also, I’m slammed today, but I will get back to the replies on this thread when possible later today.

First things first: Any winter storm is a high impact event across most locations in Georgia. Snowmageddon 2014 was 2-3 inches of snow plus some bad decisions by a lotta folks.... Keep that in mind. If you are able, please try your best to work from home or take the day off. If you are a business owner, you're probably wanting to make the right decision for your folks and your business... this could be a great opportunity to show your team how much you care for their wellbeing and safety; however, everyone has different variables when making these decisions. Hopefully this outlook helps... sorry it's a lot to scroll through, but there are a very wide range of possibilities across the state.

One additional note: I am relatively confident in the North Georgia forecast. I am vastly less confident in the I-20 forecast... IF you are closer to I-20 and Augusta, I am concerned about this event overperforming in your areas. All of the models have a quick warm-up once the low and its precipitation moves in... the outlier model that I rely on the most for Winter Weather setups is an outlier with more sleet / ice in your areas than advertised.

Key Messages Across All Areas

Travel Impact: Snowfall during Friday morning commute will quickly make roads icy and hazardous. Travel will become impossible in some regions most impacted by this storm.
Thursday night COLD: Surface temperatures in the 20s and cold soil temperatures mean snow / ice will stick rapidly early on Friday morning.
Timing: Snow begins early Friday and tapers off late Friday night. Then, overnight lows will drop into the teens and 20s across much of the region, causing refreezing concerns heading into Saturday. Travel issues will likely persist into Sunday for many locations across North Georgia.

Northwest Georgia

Key Cities: Dalton, Rome, Calhoun
Key Impacts:
- Primary precipitation: Snow, possibly mixing with sleet or freezing rain.
- Expected snowfall: 2-4 inches
- Timing: Snowfall begins around or shortly after sunrise Friday, continuing most of the day.
Details:
- Dalton and Calhoun: Expect 2-4 inches of heavy, wet snow. Sleet or freezing rain could mix in later in the day, slightly reducing totals.
- Rome: Snow is expected to accumulate quickly during the morning hours, creating hazardous travel conditions. Brief periods of sleet or freezing rain may mix in during the afternoon.

North Georgia Mountains

Key Cities: Blairsville, Blue Ridge, Ellijay, Dahlonega
Key Impacts:
- Primary precipitation: Snow, potentially heavy at times.
- Expected snowfall: 3-5 inches, with isolated 8" totals.. especially in higher elevations.
- Timing: Snow begins early Friday morning and continues into the evening.
- Caution: Heavy, wet snow could bring down tree branches and power lines.
Details:
- Blairsville and Blue Ridge: Highest snowfall totals, with accumulations reaching 3-5 inches.
- Ellijay and Dahlonega: Snow totals between 3-5 inches, with lower chances of sleet or freezing rain compared to lower elevations.

Metro Atlanta

Key Cities: Atlanta, Marietta, Lawrenceville, Roswell
Key Impacts:
- Precipitation phases: Snow onset during the morning commute, transitioning to sleet/freezing rain in the afternoon.
- Expected accumulation: 1-2 inches of combination of snow/sleet and 0.10-0.25 inches of ice. Isolated 2-3" totals across the northern tier of Metro counties.
- Timing: Snow begins early Friday, transitioning by late afternoon.
- Ice Storm Potential: If snow to mix transitions occur earlier, significant ice accumulations may result.
Details:
- Atlanta and Marietta: Morning snow will create difficult travel conditions. A changeover to sleet or freezing rain is expected by afternoon, increasing ice risks.
- Lawrenceville and Roswell: Similar to Atlanta, with up to 3 inches of snow possible before transitions to sleet or freezing rain. Roads will likely be hazardous throughout the day.

Athens and Surrounding Areas

Key Cities: Athens, Watkinsville, Winder
Key Impacts:
- Precipitation phases: Snow onset during the morning, transitioning to sleet/freezing rain in the afternoon.
- Expected accumulation: 1-2 inches of snow/sleet and 0.10-0.25 inches of ice.
- Timing: Snow begins mid to late morning on Friday, transitioning to a mix by late afternoon.
- Ice Storm Potential: Earlier transitions from snow to wintery mix could significantly increase ice totals.
Details:
- Athens: Models suggest 1-2 inches of snow and sleet before a changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulations could lead to power outages and treacherous travel.
- Watkinsville and Winder: Similar conditions to Athens, with accumulating snow early and a potential for hazardous ice by late afternoon.

South of I-20 & Central Georgia

Key Cities: Macon, Columbus, Warner Robins, Griffin, LaGrange
Key Impacts:
- Precipitation phases: Morning snow and wintery mix transitioning pretty quickly to rain.
- Limited impacts: Expected due to brief freezing precip period.
- Caution: There is a real chance in my opinion for more icing issues than what the models show. Even a moderate risk for a potential ice storm set-up here. I could be wrong, but I would somewhat plan for it. Regardless, be careful on area roads.
Details:
- Macon and Griffin: Early morning snow likely, but accumulations should be minimal. Models call for a quick change to wintery mix, then all liquid rain... but see my caution note above.
- Warner Robins, Columbus and LaGrange: Snow may stick briefly but will change to rain before midday.