Edited 12/18/2023
Let's take a final look before ESD:
Going to keep this short, glad to answer any questions.
Top 10 going into ESD:
1 GEORGIA 3055
2 OHIO STATE 2941
3 TEXAS 2754
4 FLORIDA STATE 2684
5 ALABAMA 2659
6 OKLAHOMA 2617
7 NOTRE DAME 2548
8 MIAMI (FL) 2537
9 AUBURN 2505
10 FLORIDA 2504
Here we are currently with Raiola:
... and without Raiola
So, if we lose Raiola we lose 128 points ... 233 - 105 ... we replace the no. 2 player (233 points) with an unranked 5.8 (105 points) for a delta of 128.
That would drop us to 2927 assuming we keep everyone else and we don't add anyone. If we add a top 100 player, that would add at least 50 points and wrap it up for us.
Currently, let's take a look at everyone else:
tOSU - 2941, so they would be ahead of us. BUT, they are hanging on to their asses with several top players noted as prospective flips.
Texas at 2754 might have a shot. They are a popular flip destination for the safety at UF, Xavier Filsaime, (he would be worth 96 to Texas as the no. 32 player). But, Texas is at 21 players so they would only get the delta from adding him.
Don't see any of the others jumping up except, of course, Bama. But they are at 2659, and it would be hard to make up around 300 points unless they landed 2-3 big-time players.
There aren't a lot of top 100 guys in play - nos. 45, 71, 103, 115, 126, 132, 133, 202, 203, 217, 219. This was the same last year, too. Recruits wanted to claim spots with the transfer portal, None of those players would do enough to make a difference.
Conclusion: assuming we lose Raiola, we should finish no worse than 2nd. With tOSU trying to hold off 3 players, 1st seems fairly safe unless "flip city" happens and a bunch of people flip at the very end.
FWIW: even if we lose Raiola, we appear to be locked into the no. 1 slot on the Composite, even if we finish 2nd here.
Edited 8/21/2023
Based on all the action we just had as well as a Rivals pre-season update, let's take a look at what we have:
First, the updates:
uga.forums.rivals.com
1. Current Class - 3,017
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,109 - a little more on that below
As for the 3,109 we clearly missed some big-time guys we were no. 2 on (so far). That may keep us from the 3,300+ range we were hoping for. That said, there will be point adjustments and I expect a Dawg bump of 50-100 points by year-end (we just had a nice bump). We have some guys that could really shoot up and earn some more points.
I also just have a feeling that we will flip a 5* from somewhere. Kirby and the staff do it each year. I am thinking that a S like Xavier Filsaime, a UF commit, might bail once UF loses 6 or more games. But, there will be a surprise or two before ESD.
I think it's very possible that we are starting to see some of the "leveling" that we thought NIL might do. With Bolten to FSU, Nwarni to Mizzou, possibly Wingo to Mizzou, Ross just picked UTjr instead of Bama, we may see a half dozen to a dozen 5* end up somewhere other than UGA/Bama/tOSU. UGA will still get the/a top class, it's just that we may not see the 3330+ classes anymore. That said, it's all relative and if we see that perhaps only UGA is over 3,000 and the no. 2 team is still a couple hundred points behind, UGA is still opening a bigger gap, and is still stacking the talent.
To me that may be the most interesting aspect of the 2024 class - the top 3 may be well ahead of the 4-10 teams, but everyone else might be lower as talent starts spreading around a bit.
Now to the projections:
1. Current Class - this is straightforward - 3,017.
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,109
This would be if we hit on all of the 4 recruits we are most in on. Breland, Cole, Mikell, and McCray would be a great way to close. McCray is wildly underrated at Rivals - he's not in the Rivals 250 while being 129 in the Composite, with at least one other service having him at no. 37 overall. He might have the most room to move.
3,109 would be our 4th best class in the modern era.
For reference:
Top 20 classes since CKS got here:
Bama (2021) - 3548
Bama (2017) - 3477
ATM (2022) - 3470
UGA (2018) - 3461
Bama (2023) - 3367
Bama (2022) - 3297
tOSU (2021) - 3262
UGA (2023) - 3235
UGA (2022) - 3235
tOSU (2018) - 3192
Current 2024 Projected Class - 3,109
tOSU (2017) - 3078
UGA (2019) - 3063
UGA (2020) - 3055
Bama (2019) - 3047
Clemson (2020) - 3034
Bama (2020) - 3007
Texas (2023) - 2941
tOSU ( 2022) - 2862
UGA (2017) - 2825
UGA (2021) - 2704
Edited 7/10/2023
Based on all the action we just had, and some good news coming per the staff and Insiders, I thought I'd get this updated. I have provided 4 things:
1. Current Class - 3,008
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,496
3. Worst Realistic Scenario - 3,009
4. Most Realistic Scenario - which is still quite good - 3,253
Keep in mind that there will be point adjustments and I expect a Dawg bump of 50-100 points. Some of those lower guys are going to go way up.
Now to the projections:
1. Current Class - this is straightforward - 3008.
I decided to keep Riddick in this class, even though there are lots of signs he may be gone. 5 months to ESD ... we'll see.
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,496
This would be if we hit on all of the expected big-time recruits. This includes keeping Woodward in the class and then landing Nwaneri, Mike Matthews, Bolden, Justin Williams, and Nate Frazier. That's a tall order, of course, but who here (other than the usual suspects) wants to bet against Kirby?
This would be UGA's best class ever and would be the 2nd best ever, only behind Bama's 2021 class.
3. Worst Realistic Scenario - 3,009
What happens if we don't get ANY of the above? Let's say that Woodward flips to Bama, and we don't land Nwaneri, Mike Matthews, Bolden, or Justin Williams. I am keeping Frazier in this class projection.
In this case, I have replaced Nwarneri with Breland, Matthews/Wingo with Ragins, Justin Williams with Jordan Ross, and Woodward with Kamron Mikell.
This isn't going to happen, but if it did we would be basically holding serve from where we are now. This would be a great class, but not elite. Looking at it, it would be really solid - 11 top 102 players, but not as many 5* or top 10/25 players.
4. More Realistic Scenario - 3,253
It's not very likely at all that we lose out on all of these guys. Here is how the points work out:
Dont get:
Nwaneri > Breland (-80)
Matthews or Wingo > Ragins (-110)
Williams > Jordan Ross (-63)
Bolden (I've not replaced him here, so he's a large loss of points - 118)
Lose:
Woodward > Kamron Mikell (-106)
That's a total loss of 487 points. Again, that is not likely to happen. Let's split the baby and say we land half of that, meaning we lose 243 points. Subtracting that from the most optimistic value gives us 3,253. That's still the 2nd best UGA class of all-time.
FWIW, @borodawg posted that he thinks we have a final total of 3275 (+/- 50 pts). That matches up with my number 4 option. Again, that's not as good as Bama and ATM's number the last 2 years, or the UGA class of 2018. But our 2018 class and the ATM class didn't hold up to the margin of error - both classes were gutted with transfers. It's too early to tell about Bama's class last year. So, while Boro was somewhat dismissive in what he and I agree on as a realistic number, I'd be totally pleased with a 3,250 number where we get half of the top players we are in on. That would be an elite class (stacked on top of other elite classes).
uga.forums.rivals.com
For reference:
Top 20 classes since CKS got here:
Bama (2021) - 3548
Current 2024 Projected Class - 3,496
Bama (2017) - 3477
ATM (2022) - 3470
UGA (2018) - 3461
Bama (2023) - 3367
Bama (2022) - 3297
tOSU (2021) - 3262
UGA (2023) - 3235
UGA (2022) - 3235
tOSU (2018) - 3192
tOSU (2017) - 3078
UGA (2019) - 3063
UGA (2020) - 3055
Bama (2019) - 3047
Clemson (2020) - 3034
Bama (2020) - 3007
Texas (2023) - 2941
tOSU ( 2022) - 2862
UGA (2017) - 2825
UGA (2021) - 2704
Initial Projections - Initial Post - 6/13/2023
I have no inside information. I do this annually to provide a graphic representation of the fantastic work of the staff, most specifically @Trent Smallwood's 2024 Class Prediction, @JedMay's Georgia Leaderboard and Cheat Sheet, and @Blayne Gilmer's other posts. I ignore anything posted by @Radi Nabulsi.
uga.forums.rivals.com
uga.forums.rivals.com
I also base it on things I read here, and elsewhere. But, for the most part, you can see this as a visual representation of Trent, Blayne, and Jed's work.
I will update it before the season, then possibly mid-season, then before ESD, then before NSD, and then one last time after NSD as a final review.
I am President of the Vent Disney Club, so I am optimistic about all of my listings. My friend @borodawg will most certainly come in to help me out and provide a more critical view.
Links to previous classes are found below at the bottom of the post.
For the Newbies, this is all Rivals, not Composite or Consensus; with Rivals, only the top 20 recruits are counted.
Some things to help you compare where we are:
Top 20 classes since CKS got here:
2024 class - looking to be CKS best, 2nd all-time.
Bama (2021) - 3548
Current 2024 Projected Class - 3505
Bama (2017) - 3477
ATM (2022) - 3470
UGA (2018) - 3461
Bama (2023) - 3367
Bama (2022) - 3297
tOSU (2021) - 3262
UGA (2023) - 3235
UGA (2022) - 3235
tOSU (2018) - 3192
tOSU (2017) - 3078
UGA (2019) - 3063
UGA (2020) - 3055
Bama (2019) - 3047
Clemson (2020) - 3034
Bama (2020) - 3007
Texas (2023) - 2941
tOSU ( 2022) - 2862
UGA (2017) - 2825
UGA (2021) - 2704
Current Class (2689 - would have been 5th in the final 2023 rankings - obviously much more to come)
Top 100 - 8
Top 300 - 12
Projected Class (3505 - 1st in 2023, 2nd all time)
Top 100 - 14
Top 300 - 22
Horrible Class (2839, 3rd in 2023)
For the Chicken Littles who think we suck at recruiting ... current class + all 3* the rest of the way - 2839, 3rd in 2023. Think about that, Malcontents, if the rest of the class were filled with random 3*s, we would end up 3rd everything else being equal. Obviously, at least to most, that won't happen.
Remaining prospects
Certainly, others will get added and subtracted as they become known or commit to others:
Rivals Team Rankings
n.rivals.com
n.rivals.com
n.rivals.com
n.rivals.com
n.rivals.com
n.rivals.com
n.rivals.com
Let's take a final look before ESD:
Going to keep this short, glad to answer any questions.
Top 10 going into ESD:
1 GEORGIA 3055
2 OHIO STATE 2941
3 TEXAS 2754
4 FLORIDA STATE 2684
5 ALABAMA 2659
6 OKLAHOMA 2617
7 NOTRE DAME 2548
8 MIAMI (FL) 2537
9 AUBURN 2505
10 FLORIDA 2504
Here we are currently with Raiola:
... and without Raiola
So, if we lose Raiola we lose 128 points ... 233 - 105 ... we replace the no. 2 player (233 points) with an unranked 5.8 (105 points) for a delta of 128.
That would drop us to 2927 assuming we keep everyone else and we don't add anyone. If we add a top 100 player, that would add at least 50 points and wrap it up for us.
Currently, let's take a look at everyone else:
tOSU - 2941, so they would be ahead of us. BUT, they are hanging on to their asses with several top players noted as prospective flips.
Texas at 2754 might have a shot. They are a popular flip destination for the safety at UF, Xavier Filsaime, (he would be worth 96 to Texas as the no. 32 player). But, Texas is at 21 players so they would only get the delta from adding him.
Don't see any of the others jumping up except, of course, Bama. But they are at 2659, and it would be hard to make up around 300 points unless they landed 2-3 big-time players.
There aren't a lot of top 100 guys in play - nos. 45, 71, 103, 115, 126, 132, 133, 202, 203, 217, 219. This was the same last year, too. Recruits wanted to claim spots with the transfer portal, None of those players would do enough to make a difference.
Conclusion: assuming we lose Raiola, we should finish no worse than 2nd. With tOSU trying to hold off 3 players, 1st seems fairly safe unless "flip city" happens and a bunch of people flip at the very end.
FWIW: even if we lose Raiola, we appear to be locked into the no. 1 slot on the Composite, even if we finish 2nd here.
Edited 8/21/2023
Based on all the action we just had as well as a Rivals pre-season update, let's take a look at what we have:
First, the updates:
Rivals updated rankings - let's look at the changes ...
Although @UGAfanindosta will chastise me for wasting time, being distracted, and not getting those updated charts out, here is how we came out with the most recent Rivals updated rankings. I have to put this info into my numbers, so I thought I'd break these out for a little sampler:
uga.forums.rivals.com
1. Current Class - 3,017
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,109 - a little more on that below
As for the 3,109 we clearly missed some big-time guys we were no. 2 on (so far). That may keep us from the 3,300+ range we were hoping for. That said, there will be point adjustments and I expect a Dawg bump of 50-100 points by year-end (we just had a nice bump). We have some guys that could really shoot up and earn some more points.
I also just have a feeling that we will flip a 5* from somewhere. Kirby and the staff do it each year. I am thinking that a S like Xavier Filsaime, a UF commit, might bail once UF loses 6 or more games. But, there will be a surprise or two before ESD.
I think it's very possible that we are starting to see some of the "leveling" that we thought NIL might do. With Bolten to FSU, Nwarni to Mizzou, possibly Wingo to Mizzou, Ross just picked UTjr instead of Bama, we may see a half dozen to a dozen 5* end up somewhere other than UGA/Bama/tOSU. UGA will still get the/a top class, it's just that we may not see the 3330+ classes anymore. That said, it's all relative and if we see that perhaps only UGA is over 3,000 and the no. 2 team is still a couple hundred points behind, UGA is still opening a bigger gap, and is still stacking the talent.
To me that may be the most interesting aspect of the 2024 class - the top 3 may be well ahead of the 4-10 teams, but everyone else might be lower as talent starts spreading around a bit.
Now to the projections:
1. Current Class - this is straightforward - 3,017.
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,109
This would be if we hit on all of the 4 recruits we are most in on. Breland, Cole, Mikell, and McCray would be a great way to close. McCray is wildly underrated at Rivals - he's not in the Rivals 250 while being 129 in the Composite, with at least one other service having him at no. 37 overall. He might have the most room to move.
3,109 would be our 4th best class in the modern era.
For reference:
Top 20 classes since CKS got here:
Bama (2021) - 3548
Bama (2017) - 3477
ATM (2022) - 3470
UGA (2018) - 3461
Bama (2023) - 3367
Bama (2022) - 3297
tOSU (2021) - 3262
UGA (2023) - 3235
UGA (2022) - 3235
tOSU (2018) - 3192
Current 2024 Projected Class - 3,109
tOSU (2017) - 3078
UGA (2019) - 3063
UGA (2020) - 3055
Bama (2019) - 3047
Clemson (2020) - 3034
Bama (2020) - 3007
Texas (2023) - 2941
tOSU ( 2022) - 2862
UGA (2017) - 2825
UGA (2021) - 2704
Edited 7/10/2023
Based on all the action we just had, and some good news coming per the staff and Insiders, I thought I'd get this updated. I have provided 4 things:
1. Current Class - 3,008
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,496
3. Worst Realistic Scenario - 3,009
4. Most Realistic Scenario - which is still quite good - 3,253
Keep in mind that there will be point adjustments and I expect a Dawg bump of 50-100 points. Some of those lower guys are going to go way up.
Now to the projections:
1. Current Class - this is straightforward - 3008.
I decided to keep Riddick in this class, even though there are lots of signs he may be gone. 5 months to ESD ... we'll see.
2. Best Realistic Scenario - 3,496
This would be if we hit on all of the expected big-time recruits. This includes keeping Woodward in the class and then landing Nwaneri, Mike Matthews, Bolden, Justin Williams, and Nate Frazier. That's a tall order, of course, but who here (other than the usual suspects) wants to bet against Kirby?
This would be UGA's best class ever and would be the 2nd best ever, only behind Bama's 2021 class.
3. Worst Realistic Scenario - 3,009
What happens if we don't get ANY of the above? Let's say that Woodward flips to Bama, and we don't land Nwaneri, Mike Matthews, Bolden, or Justin Williams. I am keeping Frazier in this class projection.
In this case, I have replaced Nwarneri with Breland, Matthews/Wingo with Ragins, Justin Williams with Jordan Ross, and Woodward with Kamron Mikell.
This isn't going to happen, but if it did we would be basically holding serve from where we are now. This would be a great class, but not elite. Looking at it, it would be really solid - 11 top 102 players, but not as many 5* or top 10/25 players.
4. More Realistic Scenario - 3,253
It's not very likely at all that we lose out on all of these guys. Here is how the points work out:
Dont get:
Nwaneri > Breland (-80)
Matthews or Wingo > Ragins (-110)
Williams > Jordan Ross (-63)
Bolden (I've not replaced him here, so he's a large loss of points - 118)
Lose:
Woodward > Kamron Mikell (-106)
That's a total loss of 487 points. Again, that is not likely to happen. Let's split the baby and say we land half of that, meaning we lose 243 points. Subtracting that from the most optimistic value gives us 3,253. That's still the 2nd best UGA class of all-time.
FWIW, @borodawg posted that he thinks we have a final total of 3275 (+/- 50 pts). That matches up with my number 4 option. Again, that's not as good as Bama and ATM's number the last 2 years, or the UGA class of 2018. But our 2018 class and the ATM class didn't hold up to the margin of error - both classes were gutted with transfers. It's too early to tell about Bama's class last year. So, while Boro was somewhat dismissive in what he and I agree on as a realistic number, I'd be totally pleased with a 3,250 number where we get half of the top players we are in on. That would be an elite class (stacked on top of other elite classes).
JJA would put us at 3009
For our current 20 recruits. Each additional recruit we take in will add points to that total except Daniels. No problem there. From 35 to over 100 points per commitment. We still see points gain in the next 5 commits besides Daniel. I still hold to 3300 to 3410 in points range when all said...
uga.forums.rivals.com
For reference:
Top 20 classes since CKS got here:
Bama (2021) - 3548
Current 2024 Projected Class - 3,496
Bama (2017) - 3477
ATM (2022) - 3470
UGA (2018) - 3461
Bama (2023) - 3367
Bama (2022) - 3297
tOSU (2021) - 3262
UGA (2023) - 3235
UGA (2022) - 3235
tOSU (2018) - 3192
tOSU (2017) - 3078
UGA (2019) - 3063
UGA (2020) - 3055
Bama (2019) - 3047
Clemson (2020) - 3034
Bama (2020) - 3007
Texas (2023) - 2941
tOSU ( 2022) - 2862
UGA (2017) - 2825
UGA (2021) - 2704
Initial Projections - Initial Post - 6/13/2023
I have no inside information. I do this annually to provide a graphic representation of the fantastic work of the staff, most specifically @Trent Smallwood's 2024 Class Prediction, @JedMay's Georgia Leaderboard and Cheat Sheet, and @Blayne Gilmer's other posts. I ignore anything posted by @Radi Nabulsi.
***2024 Class Prediction (UPDATED 10/17)
QUARTERBACK: (2 COMMITS) DONE 1) Ryan Puglisi: (5.8) 4* QB COMMIT 2) Dylan Raiola: (6.1) Rivals100 5* QB COMMIT RUNNING BACK: (3 COMMITS) DONE 3) Nathaniel Frazier: (5.9) Rivals100 4* RB COMMIT 4) Chauncey Bowens: (5.9) Rivals100 4* RB COMMIT 5) Dwight Phillips: (5.8) Rivals250 4* ATH COMMIT...
uga.forums.rivals.com
NEW STORY - The 2024 Georgia recruiting cheat sheet (updated 6/1)
https://uga.rivals.com/news/the-2024-georgia-recruiting-cheat-sheet February 21: https://uga.rivals.com/news/the-updated-2024-georgia-recruiting-cheat-sheet-2-21- March 9: https://uga.rivals.com/news/the-updated-2024-georgia-recruiting-cheat-sheet-3-8- April 4...
uga.forums.rivals.com
I also base it on things I read here, and elsewhere. But, for the most part, you can see this as a visual representation of Trent, Blayne, and Jed's work.
I will update it before the season, then possibly mid-season, then before ESD, then before NSD, and then one last time after NSD as a final review.
I am President of the Vent Disney Club, so I am optimistic about all of my listings. My friend @borodawg will most certainly come in to help me out and provide a more critical view.
Links to previous classes are found below at the bottom of the post.
For the Newbies, this is all Rivals, not Composite or Consensus; with Rivals, only the top 20 recruits are counted.
Some things to help you compare where we are:
Top 20 classes since CKS got here:
2024 class - looking to be CKS best, 2nd all-time.
Bama (2021) - 3548
Current 2024 Projected Class - 3505
Bama (2017) - 3477
ATM (2022) - 3470
UGA (2018) - 3461
Bama (2023) - 3367
Bama (2022) - 3297
tOSU (2021) - 3262
UGA (2023) - 3235
UGA (2022) - 3235
tOSU (2018) - 3192
tOSU (2017) - 3078
UGA (2019) - 3063
UGA (2020) - 3055
Bama (2019) - 3047
Clemson (2020) - 3034
Bama (2020) - 3007
Texas (2023) - 2941
tOSU ( 2022) - 2862
UGA (2017) - 2825
UGA (2021) - 2704
Current Class (2689 - would have been 5th in the final 2023 rankings - obviously much more to come)
Top 100 - 8
Top 300 - 12
Projected Class (3505 - 1st in 2023, 2nd all time)
Top 100 - 14
Top 300 - 22
Horrible Class (2839, 3rd in 2023)
For the Chicken Littles who think we suck at recruiting ... current class + all 3* the rest of the way - 2839, 3rd in 2023. Think about that, Malcontents, if the rest of the class were filled with random 3*s, we would end up 3rd everything else being equal. Obviously, at least to most, that won't happen.
Remaining prospects
Certainly, others will get added and subtracted as they become known or commit to others:
Rivals Team Rankings
2023 All Teams Football Recruiting Team Rankings
2023 all-teams football recruiting team rankings by Rivals.com
2022 All Teams Football Recruiting Team Rankings
2022 all-teams football recruiting team rankings by Rivals.com
2021 All Teams Football Recruiting Team Rankings
2021 all-teams football recruiting team rankings by Rivals.com
2020 All Teams Football Recruiting Team Rankings
2020 all-teams football recruiting team rankings by Rivals.com
2019 All Teams Football Recruiting Team Rankings
2019 all-teams football recruiting team rankings by Rivals.com
2018 All Teams Football Recruiting Team Rankings
2018 all-teams football recruiting team rankings by Rivals.com
2017 All Teams Football Recruiting Team Rankings
2017 all-teams football recruiting team rankings by Rivals.com
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