Let's say there is some chaos (Texas losing, Pac 12 with 2 Ls, even FSU losing to UF). There would have to be a LOT more chaos for the loser of that game to make the playoff this year. Michigan would have one decent win with a bad schedule. tOSU would have two, but that's it. Either would only get to 11 wins and wouldn't have any championship (division or otherwise), And no one wants Michigan to make it this year. With all that in mind, the loser of that game is probably behind the following:
Big 10 Champ (lol at Iowa, ain't happening).
1-loss or less SEC Champ
1-loss or less PAC 12 Champ
1-loss Big 12 Champ
1-loss or less ACC Champ
1-loss SECC runner up (could only be UGA in that scenario).
The latter team would be 12-1, with one more total victory, a loss to an elite team, and comparable wins. Unless it's a blowout, UGA would get in.
For the loser of Michigan-tOSU to get in, three of the following need to happen:
-- FSU has to lose the ACC Championship. I think a 12-1 ACC Champ gets in over a 11-1 Big 10 loser but there might be a debate if it's tOSU. If it's Michigan, they're screwed. [Same might be true for 1-loss SECC runner up but they'd at least have the same record as FSU and would have beaten--convincingly--a common opponent that beat FSU]
--Washington needs to drop 2 games, one of which is the PAC 12 championship (other games are at Oregon State and home against Washington State), and Oregon has to lose at Arizona State or at home to Oregon State but then win the PAC 12 championship.
--Texas has to lose again
--UGA has to lose at Knoxville and then lose to Bama.
That's a tall order. Two of those seem really unlikely, but three would be like the finish to the 2007 season.
Big 10 Champ (lol at Iowa, ain't happening).
1-loss or less SEC Champ
1-loss or less PAC 12 Champ
1-loss Big 12 Champ
1-loss or less ACC Champ
1-loss SECC runner up (could only be UGA in that scenario).
The latter team would be 12-1, with one more total victory, a loss to an elite team, and comparable wins. Unless it's a blowout, UGA would get in.
For the loser of Michigan-tOSU to get in, three of the following need to happen:
-- FSU has to lose the ACC Championship. I think a 12-1 ACC Champ gets in over a 11-1 Big 10 loser but there might be a debate if it's tOSU. If it's Michigan, they're screwed. [Same might be true for 1-loss SECC runner up but they'd at least have the same record as FSU and would have beaten--convincingly--a common opponent that beat FSU]
--Washington needs to drop 2 games, one of which is the PAC 12 championship (other games are at Oregon State and home against Washington State), and Oregon has to lose at Arizona State or at home to Oregon State but then win the PAC 12 championship.
--Texas has to lose again
--UGA has to lose at Knoxville and then lose to Bama.
That's a tall order. Two of those seem really unlikely, but three would be like the finish to the 2007 season.
