Even if those 10x numbers are unlikely, this is gonna be a hell of a burden for everyone over the next few months. Probably worse than anything we have ever dealt with.
UGA prepares for coronavirus
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Even if those 10x numbers are unlikely, this is gonna be a hell of a burden for everyone over the next few months. Probably worse than anything we have ever dealt with.
Not really and certainly more fact based then your off kilter response and earlier posts. The CDC was the driver in Ebola treatment in the US as well as Emory U. Hospital. I heard the comments of the Nebraska person you espouse. I've also heard others debunk them as incorrect in his assumptions. His statements have not undergone peer review. I'll wait for real science and mathematical analysis to check in.
Actually death estimates are as high as 30K just in the US. and the other facts in @ugafish thread? Those are straight from Johns Hopkins website: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
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Yes really. Let’s see some of those debunks. I imagine his numbers are based off of widely accepted calculations.
If there is any single person to trust on this, it’s probably this guy. He was on the frontline of the Ebola and corona responses.
Jeebus.... This is a new bug in humans. Go to CDC or Johns Hopkins and look at the actual data for yourself. And while your at it go over to the Nebraska and have a look at their posts. Hint: They mirror what others in this thread are telling you. SO if that Husker doc were such an "expert" seems his own state would be following his thoughts closely. Not so.
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- CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths from flu.
I am sure one of the most respected experts on this type stuff knows the actual data, and used it in his calculations. I have no idea why you are so gung ho on trying to discredit that Dr.
Thank you for the informative posts. This is some scary shit IMO. Son is still in ICU. Hopefully being moved to regular room today, but he had a nasty pneumonia. He was extubated 1x and had to be reintubated same day. Been off vent for 96 hours now and off oxygen. Still a residual fever off and on. Belief is it started as virus (he did test positive for RSV on panel that is done but didn’t know about it till 3/3) and then he got secondary bacterial infection. He was blasted with a nuclear bomb’s worth of antibiotics for 7 days. He’s been in ICU since 2/27. At hospital since 2/25. Still under contact precautions. I do believe I am going to put him in a bubble.
Several people (met families in waiting room) in ICU and on vent diagnosed with pneumonia. Saw people on gurneys in hallways of ER. Staff kept telling me how there were a lot of very sick people here and it was just normal for this time of year, but add corona to it?? Nightmare. Just from my small anecdotal point of view, the healthcare system will be overwhelmed...hospital here is nice sized/staffed. Not a small community hospital. That’s a scary thought. Thoughts and prayers for all of our healthcare workers and our leadership.
Several people (met families in waiting room) in ICU and on vent diagnosed with pneumonia. Saw people on gurneys in hallways of ER. Staff kept telling me how there were a lot of very sick people here and it was just normal for this time of year, but add corona to it?? Nightmare. Just from my small anecdotal point of view, the healthcare system will be overwhelmed...hospital here is nice sized/staffed. Not a small community hospital. That’s a scary thought. Thoughts and prayers for all of our healthcare workers and our leadership.
I think you nailed it on the true fear, it isn’t so much the mortality rate of coviid19 but that it will eat up all available resources and cases like your son in a month won’t be able to get that care needed. Ventilators. Oxygen, protective equipment are going to be depleted, and when healthcare workers start getting sick as well it’s a perfect storm
QUOTE="alw1776, post: 4725510, member: 53474"]Thank you for the informative posts. This is some scary shit IMO. Son is still in ICU. Hopefully being moved to regular room today, but he had a nasty pneumonia. He was extubated 1x and had to be reintubated same day. Been off vent for 96 hours now and off oxygen. Still a residual fever off and on. Belief is it started as virus (he did test positive for RSV on panel that is done but didn’t know about it till 3/3) and then he got secondary bacterial infection. He was blasted with a nuclear bomb’s worth of antibiotics for 7 days. He’s been in ICU since 2/27. At hospital since 2/25. Still under contact precautions. I do believe I am going to put him in a bubble.
Several people (met families in waiting room) in ICU and on vent diagnosed with pneumonia. Saw people on gurneys in hallways of ER. Staff kept telling me how there were a lot of very sick people here and it was just normal for this time of year, but add corona to it?? Nightmare. Just from my small anecdotal point of view, the healthcare system will be overwhelmed...hospital here is nice sized/staffed. Not a small community hospital. That’s a scary thought. Thoughts and prayers for all of our healthcare workers and our leadership.[/QUOTE]
QUOTE="alw1776, post: 4725510, member: 53474"]Thank you for the informative posts. This is some scary shit IMO. Son is still in ICU. Hopefully being moved to regular room today, but he had a nasty pneumonia. He was extubated 1x and had to be reintubated same day. Been off vent for 96 hours now and off oxygen. Still a residual fever off and on. Belief is it started as virus (he did test positive for RSV on panel that is done but didn’t know about it till 3/3) and then he got secondary bacterial infection. He was blasted with a nuclear bomb’s worth of antibiotics for 7 days. He’s been in ICU since 2/27. At hospital since 2/25. Still under contact precautions. I do believe I am going to put him in a bubble.
Several people (met families in waiting room) in ICU and on vent diagnosed with pneumonia. Saw people on gurneys in hallways of ER. Staff kept telling me how there were a lot of very sick people here and it was just normal for this time of year, but add corona to it?? Nightmare. Just from my small anecdotal point of view, the healthcare system will be overwhelmed...hospital here is nice sized/staffed. Not a small community hospital. That’s a scary thought. Thoughts and prayers for all of our healthcare workers and our leadership.[/QUOTE]
Moose Magnificent Rack
Letterman and National Champion
"UGA prepares for the coronavirus"
As much as I hate a prevent-style defense, I think the dawgs should use a base nickel package against corona. So far, corona has proven to be very efficient in the spread. A nickel package, with an occasional safety blitz thrown in, might keep the virus off balance and stop it cold.
If the corona spread is effective against our nickel, the only other thing we can really do is deploy a dime package. I have to admit, I didn't even know conona was on our schedule. Is it a home or away pandemic? This is one time that I hope the dawgs are on the road.
As much as I hate a prevent-style defense, I think the dawgs should use a base nickel package against corona. So far, corona has proven to be very efficient in the spread. A nickel package, with an occasional safety blitz thrown in, might keep the virus off balance and stop it cold.
If the corona spread is effective against our nickel, the only other thing we can really do is deploy a dime package. I have to admit, I didn't even know conona was on our schedule. Is it a home or away pandemic? This is one time that I hope the dawgs are on the road.
Like I said go have a look at Johns Hopkins or CDC websites for yourself. You'll find all your answers there I believe. AND there was an NIH official state publicly to the Board of USA Today that people should just go about their usual business and simply wash hands. That was on Jan 17, 2020. That "expert" is nowhere to be found for a follow-up now. All anyone have to do is follow the data until everyone can be tested and / or a vaccine is available.
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You have already done the leg work, so tell us what their predictions are for this outbreak. How do they differ from the other expert I am using?
And January 17th is beyond old news now.
Nope. I'm not gonna super your laziness.
PS_There's links on here.... if you look
So you got nothing to dispute what the Corona dr estimated, and I found nothing to dispute it in your links. Fantastic.
Actually they do. Active cases are plummeting in China. And over 60,000 people have gotten completely well, and are no longer contagious.
China took crazy steps to mitigate their problems, and they probably still
Aren’t being honest.
I mean, since when do people like you trust the Chinese government? Here is cdc comparing the 2:
Rest of world is reporting similar results. Schools, factories and stores are re-opening in China. Traffic is back to high levels again.
This virus is deadly to people who are frail and elderly. But so is the flu. Also deadly to those with lung disease or terminal illnesses. Most people who get it don’t have symptoms, or have mild symptoms, less than flu.
kids haven’t gotten it at all.
Harvard Med school professor says 40% of Earth’s population will get it, but never even know it.
This virus is deadly to people who are frail and elderly. But so is the flu. Also deadly to those with lung disease or terminal illnesses. Most people who get it don’t have symptoms, or have mild symptoms, less than flu.
kids haven’t gotten it at all.
Harvard Med school professor says 40% of Earth’s population will get it, but never even know it.
It’s not. It’s milder than the flu. There are likely already a million cases of this already, but haven’t been tested, because most are asymptomatic.
Look at the cdc chart. It says the opposite of what you are claiming.
Have you not heard what’s happening in italy? This is far worse of a problem compared to flu season.
No sir. The chart you posted is death rate. But the numerator they are using is infinitely smaller than reality, according to experts who’ve commented. The real number of people with virus is massively understated, because most people are asympomatic. The number they are using to calculate the death rate is off by a large factor. Harvard Med school prof has pointed this out. Nobody at CDC or National Institute of Health is disputing him. It makes sense, based on their evidence so far. Almost everyone who gets it has symptoms that are milder than flu, and they recover quicker. The people in trouble are frail and old. And those with lung disease or terminal illnesses.
You might was well panic, though. Seems to make some folks feel better.
I notice that L.A. went ahead and ran their marathon today with tens of thousands of people gathered. During their “state of emergency”.
Yes. The chart shows the death rate being far worse for 60+ year olds. How does that not concern you in anyway?
Are you 30 years old and don’t have any family members or friends over 60?
Brick wall.
Please resume your normally scheduled panic, at this time. Carry on, my friend. Death is coming to us all.
You forgot to answer the 2 questions....
Putting your head in the sand isn’t gonna change anything for the better. Ask the Johnny bee Italian who thought like you 2 weeks ago.
The Italian guy is fine. Unless he was old and frail. Or had lung disease or a terminal illness.
Not answering the questions doesn’t help your case.
The Italian is either quarantined with a cough or hoping there is a hospital bed for him as he struggles to breathe.
Recoveries are happening twice as fast as deaths, there, and a tiny percentage of the previously mentioned at-risk group is on a respirator struggling to breath.
what question did you have for me?
Thats not a tiny amount of people needing IC. IC in hallways is a major problem.
The 2 questions were:
The chart shows the death rate being far worse for 60+ year olds. How does that not concern you in anyway?
Are you 30 years old and don’t have any family members or friends over 60?
1). I am concerned that elderly frail people may die if they get it. I’m also concerned that people with lung disease and terminal illness will die if they get it. Already pointed that out. Same groups die from flu, too.
2) I am not 30 years old, and I don’t have relatives who are old and frail. Nor do I have relatives with lung disease, to my knowledge. Or with terminal illness. If I did, I’d be just as concerned about the flu as I am about this new virus. Tens of thousands die from flu every year in the US. Almost everyone who gets this new virus has mild symptoms, and recovers quicker than flu.
and now you ignore the crisis in Italy? Get it together man.
The differences with the flu is that 1) the flu has a vaccination, which greatly limits its spread, and 2) the flu kills the group you speak of at a far lower rate.
Yes, the flu kills 10's of 1000's, but we are talking about 100's of 1000's for this.
Most 60+ people in our nation have a co morbidity of some kind, so I would be shocked if you didn't know of anyone who is at major risk for this.
Brick wall.
Vaccines haven’t stopped tens of thousands of people from dying from the flu in the last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. And every single year before that.
The good news about this virus is that almost everyone who gets it has very mild symptoms and they have recovered quickly.
Flu Vaccines help keep that death number down. We don’t have that benefit with the corona. Bad news is this is likely gonna kill many more people than the flu does due in part to the lack of a vaccine, but if you don’t care about olds and cancer patients, it shouldn’t bother you.
Brick wall.
Never said I didn’t care about old and frail people. Funny how you went there. They don’t do well with this virus. Neither do people with lung disease and terminal illness.
So you’re looking for over 80,000 US deaths from this. I sure hope you’re wrong, and the health experts are right.
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