The next two games plus the tournament are obviously huge for the current and future UGA basketball fortunes. I see a lot of "have to win one, have to win both" but it is not so simple. What the teams also on the bubble do plus the inevitable bid thieves make the equation complex.
The seeding/rankings/information I use are from Neil Paine/Lunardi/ESPN but Jerry Palm is really good as well at CBS. Both have us pretty comfortably in at the moment. One loss or heaven forbid two suddenly muddies the water. Here is what we should also be looking out for:
The bubble competitors (starting with us): With no bid thieves, 6 of these will get in. For every bid thief, scratch one from this list.
GEORGIA - 18-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has us at 61% chance of getting in. (I think we win 1 more game and we are in...regardless of which game it is)
-34 in KenPom, 33 in NET, 39 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 37. 4-11 Q1 with no bad losses.
- At South Carolina tonight (+1.5 with 58.2% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Vanderbilt Saturday (69.8% win probability)
INDIANA - 18-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 55% chance of getting in. (I think the Hoosiers are 50-50 at best...couple of tough games ahead)
-43 in KenPom, 55 in NET, 51 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 46. 4-11 Q1 with no bad losses.
- At Oregon tonight (+6.5 with 28.4% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Ohio St Saturday (52.3% win probability)
OHIO ST - 16-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 56% chance of getting in. (Buckeyes pretty much control their destiny and look to be in a good spot to get in)
-32 in KenPom, 36 in NET, 35 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 52. 5-9 Q1 but 4 Q2 losses.
- Home vs Nebraska tonight (-6.5 with 73.3% win probability per ESPN)
- At Indiana Saturday (47.7% win probability)
ARKANSAS - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 34% chance of getting in. (Cal's team probably needs a split and a win in the SECT)
-42 in KenPom, 47 in NET, 44 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 49. 4-9 Q1 but 3 Q2 losses.
- At Vandy tonight (+7.5 with 39.9% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Miss St Saturday (55.0% win probability)
NEBRASKA - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 33% chance of getting in. (Huskers looked good a week or two ago but are fading)
-52 in KenPom, 57 in NET, 55 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 55. 5-9 Q1 but 4 Q2 losses.
- At Ohio St tonight (+6.5 with 26.7% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Iowa Sunday (69.9% win probability)
BOISE ST - 21-8 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 44% chance of getting in. (Boise looks in pretty good shape to make the tournament)
-49 in KenPom, 43 in NET, 48 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 54. 3-5 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 2 Q3 losses.
- At Air Force tonight (-15.5 with 93.3% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Colorado St Friday (69.0% win probability)
OKLAHOMA - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 41% chance of getting in. (Do not like the Sooner's chances...at all)
-46 in KenPom, 53 in NET, 52 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 47. 5-10 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss.
- Home vs Mizzou tomorrow (49.1% win probability per ESPN)
- At Texas Saturday (28.3% win probability)
XAVIER - 19-10 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 39% chance of getting in. (The lack of Q1 wins will probably be Xavier's Achilles heel)
-44 in KenPom, 49 in NET, 40 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 43. 1-9 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss.
- at Butler tomorrow (50.8% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Providence Saturday (80.7% win probability)
NORTH CAROLINA 19-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 33% chance of getting in. (I think the Heels have a decent chance to make it in, even with a loss to Duke. They should be able to squeeze out 3-4 more wins between tomorrow and the conf tourney but still the lack of of Q1 will be a factor)
-39 in KenPom, 42 in NET, 30 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 42. 1-10 Q1 with 1 Q3 loss.
- at Va Tech tomorrow (-7.5 with 78.4% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Duke Saturday (19.2% win probability)
TEXAS 16-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 17% chance of getting in. (Horns have to win out and probably win a game or two in Nashville)
-51 in KenPom, 46 in NET, 37 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 60. 4-9 Q1 with 4 Q2 losses.
- at Miss St tonight (+7.5 with 35.6% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Oklahoma Saturday (71.7% win probability)
The Potential for bid thieves are:
1. Atlantic 10 conference tourney champ if VCU does not win it.
2. WCC conference tourney champ if St Mary's or Gonzaga does not win it
3. Big East conference tourney champ if St Johns/UConn/Creighton/Marquette does not win it
4. ACC conference champ if Duke/Clemson/Louisville does not win it
I honestly do not see any real chance of a current non-tourney team winning the SEC, B1G or Big XII...just too many good teams to beat there.
The seeding/rankings/information I use are from Neil Paine/Lunardi/ESPN but Jerry Palm is really good as well at CBS. Both have us pretty comfortably in at the moment. One loss or heaven forbid two suddenly muddies the water. Here is what we should also be looking out for:
The bubble competitors (starting with us): With no bid thieves, 6 of these will get in. For every bid thief, scratch one from this list.
GEORGIA - 18-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has us at 61% chance of getting in. (I think we win 1 more game and we are in...regardless of which game it is)
-34 in KenPom, 33 in NET, 39 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 37. 4-11 Q1 with no bad losses.
- At South Carolina tonight (+1.5 with 58.2% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Vanderbilt Saturday (69.8% win probability)
INDIANA - 18-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 55% chance of getting in. (I think the Hoosiers are 50-50 at best...couple of tough games ahead)
-43 in KenPom, 55 in NET, 51 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 46. 4-11 Q1 with no bad losses.
- At Oregon tonight (+6.5 with 28.4% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Ohio St Saturday (52.3% win probability)
OHIO ST - 16-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 56% chance of getting in. (Buckeyes pretty much control their destiny and look to be in a good spot to get in)
-32 in KenPom, 36 in NET, 35 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 52. 5-9 Q1 but 4 Q2 losses.
- Home vs Nebraska tonight (-6.5 with 73.3% win probability per ESPN)
- At Indiana Saturday (47.7% win probability)
ARKANSAS - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 34% chance of getting in. (Cal's team probably needs a split and a win in the SECT)
-42 in KenPom, 47 in NET, 44 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 49. 4-9 Q1 but 3 Q2 losses.
- At Vandy tonight (+7.5 with 39.9% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Miss St Saturday (55.0% win probability)
NEBRASKA - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 33% chance of getting in. (Huskers looked good a week or two ago but are fading)
-52 in KenPom, 57 in NET, 55 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 55. 5-9 Q1 but 4 Q2 losses.
- At Ohio St tonight (+6.5 with 26.7% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Iowa Sunday (69.9% win probability)
BOISE ST - 21-8 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 44% chance of getting in. (Boise looks in pretty good shape to make the tournament)
-49 in KenPom, 43 in NET, 48 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 54. 3-5 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 2 Q3 losses.
- At Air Force tonight (-15.5 with 93.3% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Colorado St Friday (69.0% win probability)
OKLAHOMA - 17-12 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 41% chance of getting in. (Do not like the Sooner's chances...at all)
-46 in KenPom, 53 in NET, 52 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 47. 5-10 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss.
- Home vs Mizzou tomorrow (49.1% win probability per ESPN)
- At Texas Saturday (28.3% win probability)
XAVIER - 19-10 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 39% chance of getting in. (The lack of Q1 wins will probably be Xavier's Achilles heel)
-44 in KenPom, 49 in NET, 40 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 43. 1-9 Q1 with 1 Q2 loss.
- at Butler tomorrow (50.8% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Providence Saturday (80.7% win probability)
NORTH CAROLINA 19-11 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 33% chance of getting in. (I think the Heels have a decent chance to make it in, even with a loss to Duke. They should be able to squeeze out 3-4 more wins between tomorrow and the conf tourney but still the lack of of Q1 will be a factor)
-39 in KenPom, 42 in NET, 30 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 42. 1-10 Q1 with 1 Q3 loss.
- at Va Tech tomorrow (-7.5 with 78.4% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Duke Saturday (19.2% win probability)
TEXAS 16-13 ESPN Bubble Watch has them at 17% chance of getting in. (Horns have to win out and probably win a game or two in Nashville)
-51 in KenPom, 46 in NET, 37 in ESPN BPI. Strength of Record is 60. 4-9 Q1 with 4 Q2 losses.
- at Miss St tonight (+7.5 with 35.6% win probability per ESPN)
- Home vs Oklahoma Saturday (71.7% win probability)
The Potential for bid thieves are:
1. Atlantic 10 conference tourney champ if VCU does not win it.
2. WCC conference tourney champ if St Mary's or Gonzaga does not win it
3. Big East conference tourney champ if St Johns/UConn/Creighton/Marquette does not win it
4. ACC conference champ if Duke/Clemson/Louisville does not win it
I honestly do not see any real chance of a current non-tourney team winning the SEC, B1G or Big XII...just too many good teams to beat there.
