Bill Oriley said first time he can remember that 6-7 weeks out of an election and both sides think they are currently winning and will win the election. Not just the ardent supporters but members of the election team. He said Trump and his polling folks and Harris and her polling folks both think they are currently leading. He said both in 2016 and 2020 Trump's team knew they were behind at this point but felt they COULD win if they could close the gap. Similar to Romney in 2012. This could be unique as i think we see this on the Dawg Chat ie both sides think they are currently winning. Regardless of Trump or Harris winning, the blowback from the losing candidate and their supporters is going to be very high. Russian Collusion, absentee ballot irregularities, access or non access to absentee ballots and etc, ; regardless neither side is going to be a good loser......
Bill Oriley said this weekend same thing I noticed on the chat.........
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Perhaps, but he was surprised at what the insiders were saying. I assume he has contacts withing both organizations. I understand public comments, but these were internal comments.
The common issue on the polls is that in using the polls as an indicator, straight up, is folly. A poll can be made to say anything. It can rally or dismay the citizen.
The key on the polls is hindsight. You look at current polls then compare how the same polls performed in the last 2 to three election cycles to actual voting in specific states.
Then look at where the same polls are projecting now. Harris is polling poorer in every state than Biden did in the last election. And when the final vote came in, he performed poorer than most polls. Not all, but most.
When you look at key states Harris needs to control, she is polling poorer than Biden. And that is in normally liberal leaning polls.
I still see Trump 310+ and has a chance to win the national majority, though that might not happen.
Not chest beating, just looking at the trends.
I don't disagree and tend to concur with you premise, but playing devel's advocate - did or have the polls adjusted their practices in the last 4 years to get more accurate data this polling period?
I tend to think probably not, but not 100% sure either way...
He said Romney would beat Obama back in 2008. He's no better than any other FOS talking head.
