I agree. I also think the Covid phenomena makes the case not only why Trump lost, but also the fact that he was somewhat vindicated in hindsight. The narrative and belief was that Trump was the primary reason US fatalities were so much higher, the Wuhan lab leak theory was universally dismissed, and low and behold the vaccine approval / effectiveness announcement was made just weeks after the election.
Since that time, it is clear that no matter who was president, the fatality numbers would have been the same. If anything, the balance between open economy / COVID deaths vindicated the Trump / Florida / Georgia / Texas approach over the Democrat / Teachers' Union ridiculous stance. And the 180 on "don't trust the vaccine" to "get the vaccine or you're fired" once Biden became President was sickening. And folks remember.
Bottom line - if not for Covid, Trump would've rolled to re-election. Had he not acted like such an ass in defeat, he would easily landslide in 2024 for the reasons above, along with Biden's track record / age.
As it stands, it is a real contest. If it was only about policy and issues that actually effect people, it would be a no-brainer. Trump's character is the only reason it is close.