God bless man, and I hope all stays well with your family. We have a six year old and I cannot imagine living with the thoughts you must carry every day.
NonDawg Covid-19 confirmed in Floyd County
- Thread starter jwhit2010
- Start date
You actually think this has not received enough attention and concern?
I would agree with something I think you posted above though, which is too much media coverage has been focused on ships and air drops of testing kits to said ships and not enough focus on facts about the disease as they are becoming known, and what people can practically do (and not do).
I wonder if media outlets are scared to report that the disease is largely skipping the 19 and under population to this point because they do not want to be painted as "underselling the risks".
I think that should be a top story, because how many parents would be relieved if they found out that 98% of infections have been of non-children, and very few of those cases have been serious? Why would we want people carrying around such fear without much factual basis to it?
I dont think people grasp how difficult this will be to deal with for our health care system. Its quite possibly going to overwhelm it and teach us a hard lesson as a nation.
Its going to be a major inconvenience at the very least even though many downplay whats happening.
It would help if people understood it doesnt seem to affect kids, and understood kids should distance themselves from 60+ family members.
Moose Magnificent Rack
Letterman and National Champion
Rub some dirt in it snowflake. We were just fine back during the Black Death in the 1300s. We cut the postules out with a knife, applied leeches and boiled a possum. If things didn't work out the corpse cart was coming by daily anyway.
We did it then, we can do it again.
“1 yo to 49 yo - chill, no freak outs, go about business as usual, expect mild symptoms.” Yeah, right
This is a very smart and informed post. I would point out, however, that every student or other low-risk person who contracts the virus increases the likelihood that a high-risk person gets it. I certainly agree that shutting down the schools has a big downside, but it also has the potential to save lives.
Is it skipping the 19 and under population or is it simply not killing them at a high rate? Those are 2 different things.
The argument that undiagnosed cases has caused the death rate to be reported higher than reality. Perhaps most of the undiagnosed cases come from the young who could be infectious and just not showing severe symptoms.
Just because the young aren't dying at a high rate doesn't mean they can't spread at a high rate just like any other virus that spreads among young people particularly in school.
As to the death rate, it’s common sense.
That rate=
number of deaths of those confirmed to have contracted the virus V total confirmed cases
Confirmed cases in no way shape or form = infection numbers.
It really is that simple.
Common sense dictates this virus is & has been far more widespread than testing indicates. The only way to prove otherwise is to test entire populations at intervals.
This one is bad, there’s no doubt about it. It’s going to (if it already hasn’t) infect millions. Many will die, many will be very ill, many will get mildly ill, some may show very few symptoms. In the end this will run its course & fizzle out just like all viruses do. A month, maybe 2 or so more.
Panic & fear are the true enemies in these instances & it’s incredibly sad to see both panic & fear pushed by our media & politicians.
You're right, but it's interesting that in the same post you said this one is bad then turn the media into the boogeyman concerning panic and fear.
Isn't it also common sense for those most at risk to fear? Who decides how they should feel?
Haven't seen any panic yet.
My 73 year old dad lies in a skilled nursing facility rehabbing from a spinal surgery and in the midst of that has been diagnosed with multiple myeloma. I am worried as hell for him.
Panic is seen in the empty aisles at the grocery store where toilet paper, water and hand gel are flying off the shelves. N95 masks being sold at high markup on the internet. If you are older or immunocompromised, or have close contact with that group then I get it. Use extra caution and barriers. Avoid overseas travel or stay away from your high risk family when you return. It may be semantics but I consider caution and smart choices a positive but fear as a negative reaction. Like driving thru a high crime neighborhood, avoid it if possible. Protect yourself if you can't. Head on a swivel, look for, anticipate, and avoid high risk situations.
Listen, I know you don't know me but I work frontline with these diseases. I do not take it lightly but also see a measured reaction as appropriate. WHO and CDC are not perfect but a good place to start for information. Those of us who work and train for this will steer you in the right direction.
First, you are making a very well thought out and well supported case for the mortality rate being closer to ~0.7% and that the concern should be more focused on the vulnerable populations. I'd like to add a couple more variables for you to mull over.
- You've researched the mortality rate well, but haven't really touched on the rate of transmission. One of the key components of COVID 19 is the relatively high rate of asymptomatic or mild cases allows many more people, especially young people, to be "super speaders". They feel fine, but are actually contagious to those around them. This is the main reason why one would consider shutting down schools. Not because the children are at risk, but because there's a high rate of transmission within the school and then to more vulnerable populations outside of the school.
- Consider the predictive value of exponential growth as it relates to the capacity of our healthcare system. Things like hospital beds, ICU rooms, ventilators, ECMO units, and hospital staff are finite resources. And those resources operate at a general level near maximum capacity on a day to day basis. To put it another way, hospitals don't have a lot of empty beds at any one time. The current volume of cases is very manageable, but how long will that continue? Rough calculations with the current doubling rate have the US at a million cases by the end of April. If ten percent of those need ventilator support like they've seen in Italy, do our hospitals have 100,000 extra ventilators around? The answer is no, they don't.
From my Critical Care Colleague in the Lombardy Region of Italy (front lines) didn't report a ventilator use of 10%
All our pts very similar: 1) dont use niv too much - if sato2 less than 95 or paO2/FiO2 less 200 with/without RR higher than 25-30 b/min at fiO2 60 per cent with cpap by helmet after 15-30 min - intubate immediately; 2) low tidal volume 6-4 ml/kg pbw with minimal rr to achieve pH above 7.2; 3) peep relatively high 13-15 cmh2O; 4) minimal RM; 5) compliance is good so pplat is usually below 25-27 cmH2O (lungs are easy to ventilate) - with driving P below 13 cm H2O; 6) increase FiO2 even higher than 0.5 if needed; 7) they start with usual very low paO2/FiO2 when intubated - than can slightly improve - dont worry is normal; 8)chest Xray usually is very bad bilateral - than use Rx and Echo - dont use CT scan for monitoring - make also a cardio echo for cardiac function and cardic effusions ; 9) low medium use of Noradrenaline - since pts are sedated almost for 4-7 days initially this maintains pressure and reduce the need for entrance in the room); 9) prone is very much useful and patients may be well responsive - but be very well organized since consider time to dress before entering the rooms; 10) stay patient weaning is later - if you start earlier you can have problems ; 11) make a BAL at entrance and once a week - remember that swab may be negative while BAL positive ! 12) treat with antiviral cocktail (Darunavir o lopinavir) + ritonavir + oseltamivir + idrossiclorochina 200x2 + ceftarolina - in agreement with infectivlogists; 13) limit fluids and increase NA); 14) no corticosteroids - in case of NA higher than 0.7 use only hydrocortisone 50 x4 (very few days); 15) use of ecmo is rare - P.P.
Panic over anything isn’t a rational or needed response regardless of the severity.
The breathless hyperventilating by much of our media telling us that our government has no answer, has no idea what it’s doing, speculating complete societal shutdowns, etc etc etc over the last few weeks after just s month ago calling this administration racist for shutting down travel from China.
What would you call that? It’s attempts to create panic, attempts to increase viewership, attempts to increase clicks.
Don't people empty store shelves when bad winter weather is approaching? That's been a thing for a long time.
Whenever any dire situation approaches people respond by stressing a relevant market. That's nothing new. There's also people who stockpile ammo and MREs on the chance that society falls for one reason or another. Your issue is more with people than the media.
Suppressing information available to the people is one way to control panic though so I can understand why some folks blame the media for everything.
The irony is that the very organizations you say we should trust have been attacked along with the media as creating a crisis over nothing.
People here have been discussing what's being reported from multiple sources and trying to make sense of it all so that they can prepare for their situation. Nothing wrong with it. We've had healthcare professionals post here telling us how ill-prepared we are to "handle" this so they've stressed the same precautions we should be taking for anything, but particularly like the flu. Not sure why some of you folks equate this with panic beyond what people will naturally respond anyway.
That does layout a good plan, and is mostly about ventilator use parameters. What percentage are they seeing that meet those parameters?
What else is the media going to talk about? It's literally the biggest story on the planet. Perhaps adults should be mature enough to deal with it instead of defaulting to panic.
Reminder, Italy was at 400 total confirmed cases on Feb 26 (a week and a half ago). US stands at 376 confirmed cases as I type this. The doubling rate seems to be at just over 4 days.
As I just posted, the current number of confirmed cases as I type this is 376 on 3/7/20 at 1426. A 116 case increase from just 24 hours ago translating to about a 2 day doubling rate. However, that doubling rate will be inflated for a little while as the US just starts to ramp up testing now. (Weeks later than it should have been might I add.)
469 cases in the US as we speak. Looks like we'll hit the first doubling early.
Harvard Med School professor says 40% of world population will get this virus, but most wont even know they have it. Very contagious, but the good news is that almost everyone who gets it has mild symptoms and recovers quickly.
People who are old and frail need to take extreme precautions. Same for those with lung disease & terminal illnesses. Those groups don’t do well with these flu viruses.
Nursing homes are sitting ducks.
What you said is true. All of it.
But none of what you said addresses the real issue at hand. You're stuck thinking about this from an individualistic perspective, and are struggling to see the bigger picture.
Yes, ~80% of people infected will either have mild symptoms or even be a asymptomatic. But what about the other 20%? That's actually where the real issue lies. Many of those 20% are going to require hospital admissions for supportive care. Some of those will even need care in specialized units (ICUs) with mechanical ventilation in order to survive. For example, in Italy, about 10% of confirmed cases have required intensive care which typically comes with ventilator support.
Now, on any given day when a patient goes south, hospitals (usually) have ICU beds and ventilator support ready at the snap of a finger. But, like with any resource, there is finite availability. What happens when there are more patients that need intensive support than said support is available?
That's the situation looming on the horizon, and it's scary AF if you're in the medical field.
Im not "struggling" with anything. I am looking at the big picture.
I think it will be 5-10% that will be a concern, not 20%. And they will mostly be people in nursing homes, and who are already very ill. It is very sad that they will not make it.
700 people in Italy have needed intensive care...in the entire country.
Maybe folks need a little perspective. Flu kills so much worse.
The best news of all for Europe is that they have Communist health care, so they will be able to get the very best care ever invented on planet Earth, and there will be no shortages, and it will all be absolutely free. I keep hearing its the model for the USA to follow.
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The WHO's Covid-19 death rate is inflated because of all the uncounted people who have had mild symptoms and never visited a doctor.
