Tennessee (8-1, ranked 7th) has won four straight games and just dismissed Mississippi State 33-14 but failed to cover as 26-point home favorites. Conversely, Georgia (7-2, ranked 12th) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Ole Miss 28-10 and losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too high and they’re hammering Tennessee plus the points. However, despite a majority of bets backing the Volunteers, we’ve seen Georgia rise all the way to -10.5 before falling back down to -8.5 when it was announced that the Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava was upgraded from questionable to probable. As a result, we are right back to where the line opened at. This signals a sharp line freeze on Georgia, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor despite the Bulldogs being the unpopular side. In other words, it appears as though sharps are “Fading the Trendy Dog” Vols and instead laying the points with the Bulldogs. Georgia is only receiving 31% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split in the most heavily bet game of the day, which also happens to be a primetime game on ABC. Georgia has buy-low value as a favorite off a loss playing a sell-high dog off a win. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 121-80 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47. Some shops are even inching down to 46.5. The under is only receiving 49% of bets but a whopping 75% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
