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I'm changing my pick on this game

dayneyoung

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Aug 29, 2018
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I'm leaving for Boston tomorrow with a group of UGA students, so I'm doing my final work for this game now.

I was planning on picking Texas. They have a great team and, as Rece Davis put it on our exclusive interview, Sark is one of the best play-callers in America.

Elevated and consistent QB play wins big games. That's why I picked Alabama to beat Georgia. Up to that point, Jalen Milroe was significantly better at home and Carson Beck historically struggles on the road.

So I looked at the QB splits for this game.

Carson Beck:

Passing
SplitValueCmpAttPctYdsTDIntRate
PlaceHome26036271.83392287172.2
Road13720566.81712106147.2
Neutral8311770.9114170172.6

Quinn Ewers:

Passing
SplitValueCmpAttPctYdsTDIntRate
PlaceHome17727265.12253176150.9
Road18329362.52320174145.4
Neutral16223369.51973125153.4

Carson Beck does have a noted drop-off in road games. Quinn Ewers is more consistent. And yet, Beck's not-as-good road splits are on par with Ewers in all scenarios.

Simply put, Carson Beck's worst is as good as Quinn Ewers' best.

Advantage Georgia.

I will be picking Georgia to win on Saturday.

@brollinspff and I are scouting Texas on Film Don't Lie tonight at 9pm. Come hang out with us:
 
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