Gonna try my best to map out some of the different important CFP scenarios for everyone. Feel free to correct me because this will be a lot. Each prediction will come with the idea that there will be no insane upsets (ex: Army over ND).
How does UGA move up to a 5-8 seed to host a playoff game? These are the things that could help if they happen:
Final Notes:
How does UGA move up to a 5-8 seed to host a playoff game? These are the things that could help if they happen:
- We NEED to kill Tennessee this weekend. The only way we can move above Ole Miss or Bama (who continue to cakewalk through their schedule) is if we beat the crap out of Tennessee and/or one of them loses in the SECCG. We need to "look" like a playoff team, which we haven't in 7/9 games.
- BYU loses. Knocks them out of top 12. Kansas and ASU will not be easy wins for them. We would move up one spot at least.
- Indiana loses big. It's a fun story and I like them, but they're getting in our way unfortunately. We would very likely be ahead of them if OSU beats them by 3, maybe 2 possessions.
- TAMU beats Texas. The schtick of the committee this year has been ranking teams one spot above a team they previously beat (i.e. UGA right behind Ole Miss, Clemson right behind Louisville, OSU right behind Oregon). This would result in a high chance of Texas being ranked right behind us and everyone else just moving up one spot.
- 5 Seed: Not happening. Would need some big upsets in the Big 10.
- 6 Seed:
- 1st Round vs. 11 Seed
- Tennessee, Indiana, Notre Dame, Boise State, Colorado, SMU
- 2nd Round vs. 3 Seed
- Miami, SMU, Boise St, BYU, Colorado👀
- 1st Round vs. 11 Seed
- 7 Seed:
- 1st Round vs. 10 Seed
- Same options as 6 seed but remove Tennessee
- 2nd Round vs. 2 Seed
- SEC Champ. Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, TAMU
- 1st Round vs. 10 Seed
- 8 Seed:
- 1st Round vs. 9 Seed
- Indiana, Notre Dame, Miami, Ole Miss, Bama, Texas
- 2nd Round vs. 1 Seed
- Big10 Champ. Oregon, OSU, Indiana
- 1st Round vs. 9 Seed
Final Notes:
- The committee has all but guaranteed that the Big 10 will host at least two first round games (Penn State and the loser of the Big10 Championship). We need to pass the eye test to be ranked ahead of Ole Miss or Bama at the end of it all for the last two host spots. There aren't a lot of spots left and chances are not looking favorable for a playoff game in Athens.
- There will not be a clear understanding of who will host and what the rankings will be until after championship weekend. No upsets that weekend will likely give us the highest chances of hosting a 1st round matchup.
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