Each year I select games against the spread every week and post them on a low budget website that makes no money. I just like the challenge. I know several people who love to play so instead of reaching out, I just tell them here is what I think and check the site. I don't often pick UGA games because I'm not sure I can look at the game objectively, but with all the crummy games in Week I, I decided to post thoughts on our game. Here it is --
Labor Day weekend has finally arrived to signal Week One of college football. For most schools this means a schedule warm up against a cupcake unless you are one of the few in the SEC, who is part of pretty good four game set:
Clemson/Georgia
Miami/Florida
LSU/Southern Cal
Notre Dame/Texas A&M
An old rivalry is renewed in downtown Atlanta where Clemson and Georgia will get the big weekend started. Last season the Tigers struggled down the stretch with close losses at Miami and NC State. This prompted the famous “Tyler from Spartanburg call” on the Clemson coaches radio show. It appears that call was just what the doctor ordered as Clemson won the rest of their regular season games and the Gator Bowl. Dabo Swiney looks to keep the momentum rolling with a quality defensive front 7 that looks to match just about anyone in the country.
The Dogs will counter that with an offensive line returning three of five starters. The two replacements have plenty of experience in back up play from last season so this looks to be a good match up. Where I start seeing a difference is QB play. Clemson signal caller Cade Klubnik looks to be very suitable, but his numbers appear to come when the Tigers are playing between the 20s. The offense just doesn’t look the same in the redzone. Another concern for the Tigers is the lack of offense away from Death Valley where they scored over 20 points on the conference road once, and that was 31 at Syracuse. On the other hand, Georgia averaged over 36 points/game away from home vs. Power 5 clubs. This includes the SECCG with Alabama. Since there are so many opt outs with bowl games, I’m not using that as part of analysis since that does not give an accurate idea of post season games outside the playoffs. Just check last years Orange Bowl as evidence.
A weakness the Clemson defense has shown in the past is their secondary allowing WRs to get by the safties for long TD passes. I expect UGA QB Carson Beck to try this a few times to get a cheap score or simply to keep the Tiger DBs a little more honest from jumping into the box. The Dogs are losing significant offensive production in Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, but there are established replacements to help fill the void. While the Tigers front 7 in defense looks imposing, the guys in red and black on the other side aren’t that bad either as this will be by far the best set of LBers Clemson will face all year.
A weakness the Georgia defense showed last season was stopping the run. While last seasons DL was less talented than the 2022 crew, the main issue was injuries to the middle LB group where the Dogs had to play two true FR at times. Having more experienced depth at the LB position will be a big help.
If Clemson has an issue getting 20 away from home against ACC teams, I don’t see where they can get more than 13 or 16 at a neutral site against the Dogs. Another concern at Clemson is a field goal unit that is not too reliable. As for Georgia playing away from the hallowed hedges, they have shown a tendency to hit paydirt enough to give me the feeling to score more than 30. The number set by the desert sharks is 12.5. When looking at the math, I like UGA to clear the number.
Just a FYI, I don't bet. Tonight's game out on the farm in Palo Alto is a firm reminder why. When betting, four things can happen and three are bad. Last season I was around 60%. In 2022, I was just over 50%. In 2021 the percentage was around 65%. Just to be clear, I have no inside contacts or information which means I know no more than you. I just like picking games.
Labor Day weekend has finally arrived to signal Week One of college football. For most schools this means a schedule warm up against a cupcake unless you are one of the few in the SEC, who is part of pretty good four game set:
Clemson/Georgia
Miami/Florida
LSU/Southern Cal
Notre Dame/Texas A&M
An old rivalry is renewed in downtown Atlanta where Clemson and Georgia will get the big weekend started. Last season the Tigers struggled down the stretch with close losses at Miami and NC State. This prompted the famous “Tyler from Spartanburg call” on the Clemson coaches radio show. It appears that call was just what the doctor ordered as Clemson won the rest of their regular season games and the Gator Bowl. Dabo Swiney looks to keep the momentum rolling with a quality defensive front 7 that looks to match just about anyone in the country.
The Dogs will counter that with an offensive line returning three of five starters. The two replacements have plenty of experience in back up play from last season so this looks to be a good match up. Where I start seeing a difference is QB play. Clemson signal caller Cade Klubnik looks to be very suitable, but his numbers appear to come when the Tigers are playing between the 20s. The offense just doesn’t look the same in the redzone. Another concern for the Tigers is the lack of offense away from Death Valley where they scored over 20 points on the conference road once, and that was 31 at Syracuse. On the other hand, Georgia averaged over 36 points/game away from home vs. Power 5 clubs. This includes the SECCG with Alabama. Since there are so many opt outs with bowl games, I’m not using that as part of analysis since that does not give an accurate idea of post season games outside the playoffs. Just check last years Orange Bowl as evidence.
A weakness the Clemson defense has shown in the past is their secondary allowing WRs to get by the safties for long TD passes. I expect UGA QB Carson Beck to try this a few times to get a cheap score or simply to keep the Tiger DBs a little more honest from jumping into the box. The Dogs are losing significant offensive production in Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, but there are established replacements to help fill the void. While the Tigers front 7 in defense looks imposing, the guys in red and black on the other side aren’t that bad either as this will be by far the best set of LBers Clemson will face all year.
A weakness the Georgia defense showed last season was stopping the run. While last seasons DL was less talented than the 2022 crew, the main issue was injuries to the middle LB group where the Dogs had to play two true FR at times. Having more experienced depth at the LB position will be a big help.
If Clemson has an issue getting 20 away from home against ACC teams, I don’t see where they can get more than 13 or 16 at a neutral site against the Dogs. Another concern at Clemson is a field goal unit that is not too reliable. As for Georgia playing away from the hallowed hedges, they have shown a tendency to hit paydirt enough to give me the feeling to score more than 30. The number set by the desert sharks is 12.5. When looking at the math, I like UGA to clear the number.
Just a FYI, I don't bet. Tonight's game out on the farm in Palo Alto is a firm reminder why. When betting, four things can happen and three are bad. Last season I was around 60%. In 2022, I was just over 50%. In 2021 the percentage was around 65%. Just to be clear, I have no inside contacts or information which means I know no more than you. I just like picking games.
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