Nd (sorta) - Florida covid cases today lowest since late June

[RoyDawgMercer]

The 7-day moving average of new cases in Georgia has actually increased the last few days. However, the positivity rate has been declining. The problem with the horrible testing processing and reporting in this country is that it makes these statistics harder to interpret in the short-term.

I think one reasonable way to speculate about these statistics is that there may have been an increase in the number of asymptomatic people that have been tested in the last week or two for purposes like returning to school and sports. The increase number of tests of people that would not have otherwise been tested has caused the case numbers to climb a little bit, but the more important "story" is that positivity rate has declined, which may be a better picture of what has been happening with the virus in the last couple of weeks.

Ignore the day-to-day over the prior 14 day period. Then there is some manner of clarity to the data.

 

[MartinVanDawgin]

The high risk groups have the least immunity as they've been in near isolation and following CDC protocols closely. Risky, dumb, selfish behavior is exactly the reason we don't have a handle on the Virus. That and stupid, gutless, leadership.

Y'all all would do well to take a look at this guy's TL.

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC?s=20

We're gonna hit about 15-20% antibody seroprevalence and the bottom will fall out pretty quickly. We can't hide and the virus can't either. The lockdowns elongate the infection curve. It's only a matter of time until we reach the crossover point where PCR positives fall below antibody positive. AZ did about four weeks ago and the bottom is falling out.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

The 7-day moving average of new cases in Georgia has actually increased the last few days. However, the positivity rate has been declining. The problem with the horrible testing processing and reporting in this country is that it makes these statistics harder to interpret in the short-term.

I think one reasonable way to speculate about these statistics is that there may have been an increase in the number of asymptomatic people that have been tested in the last week or two for purposes like returning to school and sports. The increase number of tests of people that would not have otherwise been tested has caused the case numbers to climb a little bit, but the more important "story" is that positivity rate has declined, which may be a better picture of what has been happening with the virus in the last couple of weeks.

No, cases are not increasing the last seven days when put on the *date the person was tested* (instead of the date the lab delivered the results to the state - those daily data dumps fluctuate far more due to delays in deliveries, weekends, etc).

This is the graph of cases per day put on the date the person was tested - showing that same steady drop that started on 11 JUL. This chart was released today at 3pm.

You are spot on that positivity rates have fallen pretty sharply. Only 8.3% today after being 8.2% yesterday with *lots* of tests reported. 10% is supposedly the magic number (call me skeptical on that) but the fact the positivity rate is down so sharply is nothing but good news (it was over 11% last week).

Every metric shows C19 is receding nicely in Georgia right now, and that is good news in every way that we should all be able to soak in for what it means for football and everything else.

 

[GIZMODAWG]

Don't jump to conclusions based on daily numbers. Have to ignore the daily movements over the prior 14 days and should be comparing day-to-day numbers 14 days ago. Also have to ignore Sat. and Sun. when cases are not quantified or reported from many paces. Only on Mon. Aug 3 & Tues Aug 4 was there an appreciable decline in new cases but then new cases rose again. The 7 day average for new cases from July 19 > 29 remained essentially flat which is far better than trending up. However, today's 7 day average has turned up to 3408.1 cases. You might make an argument for a flattening of the increase of new cases near term but not for trending down or predicting anything in the future. Especially as long as folks don't wear masks or distance. Remember some school systems just began in person classes so no idea how that will impact the data as that comonent has been absent since March.

Dude you want bad things to happen. It is clear in your posts.

 

[TimberRidgeDawg]

The high risk groups have the least immunity as they've been in near isolation and following CDC protocols closely. Risky, dumb, selfish behavior is exactly the reason we don't have a handle on the Virus. That and stupid, gutless, leadership.

PS_I found out yesterday a nearby person took her son to the orthodontist to have braces put on. She had a fever, cough, chills, AND had tested positive for C19. She ignored her doc's instructions. She ignored everything. She exposed some folks with her behavior but thankfully the orthodontist assistant caught her and threw her out. They also notified the local Health Dept who paid her a visit along with a deputy. They've started contact tracing and some others are now in quarantine. My neighbor 5 houses away spent 2 weeks in hospital with Covid and Pneumonia. He cheated the Reaper, too. His wife has never once worn a mask and now brags she's "immune" after nearly killing her husband plus exposing others she selfishly came into contact with. These two idiots are not alone either. People are f*kg crazy and incredibly selfish.

There's probably 20% of the population that are a menace to society just by their existence. You could call it dumb and selfish but there is just a lot of obliviousness or otherwise lack of awareness and ability to process information into a logical conclusion. Best you can hope for is to stay out of their path lest they take you out along with themselves. That's the thing with this country, you have the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness so that creates a lot of opportunity for unfortunate individual mayhem to occur. There is a lot of stupid out there and personal responsibility got lost somewhere along the line.

 

[RoyDawgMercer]

I think you may be looking at Georgia, I was talking about Florida.

I don't look much at the daily numbers except for trends but I do follow the 7 day average which is what that link showed for Florida.

I think Georgia though is about 1-2 weeks behind Florida for cases dropping (not total, %) and they will start declining too, it's just starting to really happen now.

Florida has improved from July 16th > 29th and it looks like that could continue. Factoid about Florida is the high seasonality of its residents. Late July early August is when Summer visitors start heading back North for school. Casual travel tails off. August into September is when the Snowbirds migrate down for the Winter. Will be interesting how these movements affect the numbers and hopefully nothing negative.

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

Y'all all would do well to take a look at this guy's TL.

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC?s=20

We're gonna hit about 15-20% antibody seroprevalence and the bottom will fall out pretty quickly. We can't hide and the virus can't either. The lockdowns elongate the infection curve. It's only a matter of time until we reach the crossover point where PCR positives fall below antibody positive. AZ did about four weeks ago and the bottom is falling out.

IMO there is a great deal of truth in what you say, based on examining the available data on outcomes after 6 months of experience.

GA is near if not at 20% seroprevalence based on my math:

1. Confirmed cases of 219,000

2. CDC "inflator" has been around 10x more actual cases than confirmed cases which = 2,190,000 total estimated cases.

3. I am guessing the actual human population of Georgia is around 11 million (when you include legals, illegals, transients, etc.)

4. That is 19% infection/seroprevalence rate.

That correlates with a 37% drop in cases per day starting 11 JUL (you seem educated enough to know hospitalizations and deaths will follow as cases fall).

That same 20% seroprevalence number seems to have predicted the nose-over in AZ, TX, and FL as well.

At some point, people might want to take the Nobel prize winner at Stanford more seriously when trying to understand C19...

 

[RoyDawgMercer]

Dude you want bad things to happen. It is clear in your posts.

I can read a graph and interpret data.

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

The political football started with “It will go away by Spring”. Huge gamble that did not payoff.

Yep. It was pure idiocy to shut down the economy, and cause so many layoffs and money printing. Should have allowed herd immunity to work as it has for all of Mankind's history, and it really would have been gone by now, like in Sweden. Schools would be open, now. Flights full. Games being played. We must make sure we never do this shut down ever again. And we must find a way to keep DEM Governors from purposely murdering thousands of elderly by forcing infected patients into nursing homes. Prosecutions and prison time could help solve that.

 

[_Keef_]

Or its possible that both things are happening. While cases fall, we still have deaths and/ or an increase in deaths. These headlines seem to be 50/50. Positive and negative occurring. Now what we need to see is cases down and deaths down. When that gets reported as this winds down make sure to post the headlines then.

Poof!

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

Y'all all would do well to take a look at this guy's TL.

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC?s=20

We're gonna hit about 15-20% antibody seroprevalence and the bottom will fall out pretty quickly. We can't hide and the virus can't either. The lockdowns elongate the infection curve. It's only a matter of time until we reach the crossover point where PCR positives fall below antibody positive. AZ did about four weeks ago and the bottom is falling out.

Let's do the same math for Texas:

1. Total confirmed cases 486,000

2. Total population 29 million

3. Using 10x inflator to reach actual cases = 17% prevalence

4. Texas is nosing over in cases and hospitalizations


Same math for Florida:

1. Total confirmed cases 586,000

2. Total population 22 million

3. 10 x inflator to reach actual cases = 27% prevalence

4. FL has nosed over in cases, hospitalizations, and now deaths (it *appears*)


Same math for Arizona:

1. Total confirmed cases 187,000

2. Total population 7 million

3. 10 x inflator = 27% prevalence

4. AZ has seen a near collapse in cases and hospitalizations, and deaths are down solidly.


Again, when a Nobel prize winner does the data patterns and says 20% prevalence is the tipping point for burnout, and that appears to be happening within reasonable margins in the real world, we should pay attention...

 

[_Keef_]

Maybe the masks are working.

Lordy. LOL.

 

[_Keef_]

My point is that the post is that of a whiner. The headlines are accurate even if you don’t like them pointing out a negative. If you have been paying attention, we all know by now that deaths lag infection.

Waaaahhhhh. Poof!

 

[sodawg94]

Yep. It was pure idiocy to shut down the economy, and cause so many layoffs and money printing. Should have allowed herd immunity to work as it has for all of Mankind's history, and it really would have been gone by now, like in Sweden. Schools would be open, now. Flights full. Games being played. We must make sure we never do this shut down ever again. And we must find a way to keep DEM Governors from purposely murdering thousands of elderly by forcing infected patients into nursing homes. Prosecutions and prison time could help solve that.

You don’t know this would have occurred at all. It sounds good to you so you keep repeating it in every thread regarding this topic. Take into account that Sweden isn’t quite the US when it comes to international travel and diversity of populations. We experience so much more human contact than they do. Ie: by the time Trump shut down China the virus was already here. I’m not sure he even realizes that yet.

The right went nuts over 2 deaths of Ebola in this country. Imagine what you would have said had we just let it run its course and not taken action to contain it internationally.

My news alerts are now suggesting Trump will block Americans suspected of having the virus of returning into the country. Are you die hard patriots ok with that?

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

You don’t know this would have occurred at all. It sounds good to you so you keep repeating it in every thread regarding this topic. Take into account that Sweden isn’t quite the US when it comes to international travel and diversity of populations. We experience so much more human contact than they do. Ie: by the time Trump shut down China the virus was already here. I’m not sure he even realizes that yet.

The right went nuts over 2 deaths of Ebola in this country. Imagine what you would have said had we just let it run its course and not taken action to contain it internationally.

My news alerts are now suggesting Trump will block Americans suspected of having the virus of returning into the country. Are you die hard patriots ok with that?

LOL. Huh?
What do you mean, "we experience so much more human contact than they do"? That sounds kinda stupid. Shutting down China travel was brilliant. The idiocy was in shutting down the economy. We know that now, and must never let it happen again.

Im talking about how every virus spread in Mankind's history has ended...herd immunity. There isn't anything new or different about this respiratory virus, except it doesn't kill the kids. It is extra hard on the elderly and infirm...just like the flu. Spend effort and resources on protecting that group and move on with life. Deaths would be a fraction of what they ended up being. Everything would be open and done by now...just like Sweden. Murdering elderly nursing home patients was the worst policy move in US history by those DEM Governors. They should be in prison, or face execution.

 

[sodawg94]

Huh- how do you not understand? Have you ever been to Sweden? They do not have the same quantity of incoming and outgoing of people between the borders. They certainly don’t have the diversity of people coming and going. Comparing the US to Sweden is like saying Tech is the same as UGA.

The kids have been sidelined for the majority of the past 4 months. We are about to see what happens with kids. Again, the big gamble.

I love how you think the DEM Governors are to blame. Only to now see the virus pummeling Red states which tend to be more rural. Again with the prison and execution... no accountability for the failures and lack of a unified message at the federal level. So much for the buck stops here...

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

Huh- how do you not understand? Have you ever been to Sweden? They do not have the same quantity of incoming and outgoing of people between the borders. They certainly don’t have the diversity of people coming and going. Comparing the US to Sweden is like saying Tech is the same as UGA.

The kids have been sidelined for the majority of the past 4 months. We are about to see what happens with kids. Again, the big gamble.

I love how you think the DEM Governors are to blame. Only to now see the virus pummeling Red states which tend to be more rural. Again with the prison and execution... no accountability for the failures and lack of a unified message at the federal level. So much for the buck stops here...

Ahhh. Nobody goes to Sweden. Got it. That sounds kinda stupid, too.
Not all that much meaningful difference between Tech & Georgia in your example, except Tech is somewhat more geared toward science & tech, while modern Georgia seems to be somewhat more geared toward Marxism & creating Leftist braindead grads these days. But they are both Universities with students from around the world, and research and tenure.

There was not virus response failure at the Federal level, except with midget Fauci, and also the disastrous CDC testing program which the President dumped and replaced, beginning in Feb. Fauci has been an absolute disaster, but he is likely gone to a career as a CNN commentator, now. Trump bailed out the incompetent and unprepared state health agencies with hospital capacity, ventilators and PPE. Not his job, but he raced into action and saved them all. Not one person in the USA went without a needed hospital bed, ventilator or PPE, because of Donald Trump.

There is no "big gamble" about kids. They dont get it, and they dont die from it.
The group to protect is the elderly and infirm. Not the kids. The excess US deaths were from DEM Governors killing nursing home patients.

 

[sodawg94]

Ahhh. Nobody goes to Sweden. Got it. That sounds kinda stupid, too.
Not all that much meaningful difference between Tech & Georgia in your example, except Tech is somewhat more geared toward science & tech, while modern Georgia seems to be somewhat more geared toward Marxism & creating Leftist braindead grads these days. But they are both Universities with students from around the world, and research and tenure.

There was not virus response failure at the Federal level, except with midget Fauci, and also the disastrous CDC testing program which the President dumped and replaced, beginning in Feb. Fauci has been an absolute disaster, but he is likely gone to a career as a CNN commentator, now. Trump bailed out the incompetent and unprepared state health agencies with hospital capacity, ventilators and PPE. Not his job, but he raced into action and saved them all. Not one person in the USA went without a needed hospital bed, ventilator or PPE, because of Donald Trump.

There is no "big gamble" about kids. They dont get it, and they dont die from it.
The group to protect is the elderly and infirm. Not the kids. The excess US deaths were from DEM Governors killing nursing home patients.

Full of name calling and ignorance you are. I’m going with the international community of Dr.’s and scientists. Later.

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

Full of name calling and ignorance you are. I’m going with the international community of Dr.’s and scientists. Later.

No, Im really informed on this topic. You are "going with" politicians and bureaucrats, INSTEAD of Doctors and Scientists. I recommend you stick with science.

 

[atlanta cock#]

That’s a great fact and all, but it doesn’t feel right so I disagree.

LOL. Great post!

 

[teddy-bulldawg]

You don’t know this would have occurred at all. It sounds good to you so you keep repeating it in every thread regarding this topic. Take into account that Sweden isn’t quite the US when it comes to international travel and diversity of populations. We experience so much more human contact than they do. Ie: by the time Trump shut down China the virus was already here. I’m not sure he even realizes that yet.

The right went nuts over 2 deaths of Ebola in this country. Imagine what you would have said had we just let it run its course and not taken action to contain it internationally.

My news alerts are now suggesting Trump will block Americans suspected of having the virus of returning into the country. Are you die hard patriots ok with that?

Why is it better to not have a diverse population?
That sounds racist.

 

[sodawg94]

Why is it better to not have a diverse population?
That sounds racist.

Show me where I said it’s better to not have a diverse population. Don’t be a dimwit. Maybe we should give you the test-person,woman, man, camera, tv

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

Show me where I said it’s better to not have a diverse population. Don’t be a dimwit. Maybe we should give you the test-person,woman, man, camera, tv

And there goes the name-calling.

 

[sodawg94]

And there goes the name-calling.

In all fairness, I was just called a racist and dimwit means silly person so nice try.

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

In all fairness, I was just called a racist and dimwit means silly person so nice try.

Nobody called you a racist...yet.

 

[teddy-bulldawg]

I said it sounded racist.
Was asking for clarification.
Why do we need to take into account the diversity of the US population vs Sweden?

 

[sodawg94]

I said it sounded racist.
Was asking for clarification.
Why do we need to take into account the diversity of the US population vs Sweden?

People from various places. But you knew that and wanted to infer I was racist. Have a blessed evening.

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

Non-diversity contains a respiratory virus. Got it.
This is amazing. Really.

 

[dirtytoeddawg]

Non-diversity contains a respiratory virus. Got it.
This is amazing. Really.

Makes about as much sense as hundreds of thousands packed into the streets across the nation for a week & that having nothing to do with a resurgence of spread but going to a gym or church is the super spreader

 

[celticdawg]

Another outstanding set of posts from the one and only JBD.

I'm going to nominate him for a Pulitzer Prize




For Best Fiction Writer of the Year.

 

[sodawg94]

Non-diversity contains a respiratory virus. Got it.
This is amazing. Really.

What’s amazing is your inability to comprehend how viruses travel from one country to the next. Diverse (variety) of populations traveling from one place to another, not race. Yosemite?

 

[JohnnyBeeDawg]

What’s amazing is your inability to comprehend how viruses travel from one country to the next. Diverse (variety) of populations traveling from one place to another, not race. Yosemite?

Sweden has a massive influx of North African Muslim "refugees", for just a start. Rape gangs, grooming gangs "interacting" with all kinds of Swedes. The rape culture has skyrocketed there over the past few years, and nearly 2/3 of the perpetrators in Sweden come from outside of Europe. You cant get much more "interactive" among the populace than with rape culture.

Lots of diversity and influx of other cultures and countries into Sweden. Not sure how you dont know that. Its on the news all the time. Their entire culture is changing rapidly, and their leaders are trying to encourage this influx of others. No more isolation. They are global citizens, now, and have been for years. Sweden is a member of the EU, and therefore has open borders. That means there are all kinds of migrations of people from other cultures and nations, promoted by their unelected, appointed EU political leaders.

Why do you think the virus cant cross over the Swedish border? That sounds kinda stupid. Amazing, really.

 

[GADevildawgs]

Let's do the same math for Texas:

1. Total confirmed cases 486,000

2. Total population 29 million

3. Using 10x inflator to reach actual cases = 17% prevalence

4. Texas is nosing over in cases and hospitalizations


Same math for Florida:

1. Total confirmed cases 586,000

2. Total population 22 million

3. 10 x inflator to reach actual cases = 27% prevalence

4. FL has nosed over in cases, hospitalizations, and now deaths (it *appears*)


Same math for Arizona:

1. Total confirmed cases 187,000

2. Total population 7 million

3. 10 x inflator = 27% prevalence

4. AZ has seen a near collapse in cases and hospitalizations, and deaths are down solidly.


Again, when a Nobel prize winner does the data patterns and says 20% prevalence is the tipping point for burnout, and that appears to be happening within reasonable margins in the real world, we should pay attention...

Ive been doing the same math....especially focused on GA and GA counties....unfortunately i wish Clarke was further along at this point in time - have them at about 17% (2081- 20,810/126k = 16.5%). 20% is about 10 days away with 30+ cases a day. However, the trend still looks to be climbing as expected especially with people moving in to Athens during this month.