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My understanding of the Dansby Swanson situation
Hasn’t been the most fun offseason to this point for Braves fans. At the same time, I think Braves fans owe Alex Anthopolous a bode of confidence. He’s won 5 division titles in 5 years and a World Series ring.
I’ve been saying all offseason that I don’t think it will work out with Dansby, and it’s nothing personal for either side. From everything I can tell, there appears to be around a $50M difference in what Dansby can make on the open market and what makes sense for us to pay him. That’s typically a recipe for both sides to say “thanks for the memories”.
Here is what is clearly developing differently than in the Freddie Freeman situation:
Dansby’s market is not slowing down at all. The Cubs and the Cardinals are clearly interested, and they should be. And now it appears that the Diamondbacks want to spend on a shortstop. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants decided they were interested, and the Dodgers are still a possibility.
Freeman waited out the market and the market found other options at first base. The Braves and the Dodgers were the only options left.
The second thing that is clearly different is that there is a very legitimate difference in the amounts being offered. Freeman’s negations were getting longer and longer, seemingly for no reason, as he wouldn’t accept a 5 year offer. But as we discussed when it all worked out, Freeman could have made more yearly cash with us, and he would have ended up about the same in Atlanta and Los Angeles after taxes. It was the incompetence of Casey Close and Excel Sports Management that kept those negotiations going so long.
Dansby isn’t going to run out of options, and he is going to make a lot. And there are tens of millions of dollars of difference in the negotiations between teams.
What is similar is how Casey Close and Excel Sports Management have played it. They got an offer from the Braves during the season: we think 4 years, $100M. They turned it down. They plan to get the highest offer possible, then call the Braves and try to get them to match it or raise it.
That’s exactly what they did last year and it didn’t work.
According to a report from Mark Bowman though, Dansby has been surprised by the Braves lack of involvement in the negotiations. And he called Alex Anthopolous last week to ask about it.
I will say, I understand both sides on this one.
For one, I appreciate that Dansby would involve himself in the process. If he wants to be a Brave, he should be calling Alex Anthopolous and finding out what that will take.
On the flip side, I get why Anthopolous wouldn’t be involved in the negotiations at this point. Because it’s the period where Excel is just trying to raise the price of the offers. Why would Alex make higher offers when he knows that they will call him at the end of the process? Maybe even offer a fake deadline for him.
I am still skeptical at all that Dansby will end up a Brave. He is a very good shortstop. Not a great one. $25M a year for 5 years is a massive overpay for our context, but it’s not for someone else’s context.
This is what I think will be a hard pill for Braves fans to swallow. A 6 or 7 year contract for Dansby Swanson is not a bad contract for the Cubs, but would be for us.
Dansby’s value is different based on his context. The best way to make sense of this is the contract we signed with Nick Markakis in 2015. 4 years, $44M, most of the MLB world said it was too many years and too much money at the time. We outbid everyone else. But that was because he was perfect for where we were at. We were starting a rebuild, and we needed a stable veteran presence that young players could emulate. That made Markakis more valuable to us than he was to the Orioles, who were a veteran team at that point.
We paid Markakis more than he was worth to everyone else, and we signed up for 2 more years beyond that contract.
Well to a team like the Cubs, who are basically starting over, Dansby is a perfect fit. Because if everyone that comes up through their system acts like Dansby, then they’re perfect. Dansby is the perfect person for them to pay, because it shows what the organization values.
And it doesn’t mean we don’t value him. But we are in a different situation than them. Dansby is invaluable as a shortstop, not just on the field, but off the field. He became our leader this year. But our team is filled with leaders. If Dansby isn’t the team’s leader, Ozzie is able to handle that, and Riley is able to handle that, and D’Arnaud is able to handle that, and Matt Olson is able to handle it, and in a year or two Michael Harris can handle it.
The Braves pump out stud leaders from their farm system every year.
And the ugly side of that is that we can’t pay all of them as much as they can make. We’ll have to make due with the ones who decide to sign here early. If only we had Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Spencer Strider already signed long term.
That said, Dansby could absolutely still decide to sign here. We just saw Aaron Judge walk away from $40M in San Diego to stay in the Bronx. If Dansby sees the top offer he can get, he might still decide it’s not worth the extra $30M if he has to leave the team that he loves playing for. That’s his decision.
I won’t be offended either way. Dansby has earned the right to whatever money he can get. And playing for the Braves and competing for rings every year is mighty fun. Not gonna get that in Chicago or Arizona.
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My understanding of the Dansby Swanson situation
Hasn’t been the most fun offseason to this point for Braves fans. At the same time, I think Braves fans owe Alex Anthopolous a bode of confidence. He’s won 5 division titles in 5 years and a World Series ring.
I’ve been saying all offseason that I don’t think it will work out with Dansby, and it’s nothing personal for either side. From everything I can tell, there appears to be around a $50M difference in what Dansby can make on the open market and what makes sense for us to pay him. That’s typically a recipe for both sides to say “thanks for the memories”.
Here is what is clearly developing differently than in the Freddie Freeman situation:
Dansby’s market is not slowing down at all. The Cubs and the Cardinals are clearly interested, and they should be. And now it appears that the Diamondbacks want to spend on a shortstop. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants decided they were interested, and the Dodgers are still a possibility.
Freeman waited out the market and the market found other options at first base. The Braves and the Dodgers were the only options left.
The second thing that is clearly different is that there is a very legitimate difference in the amounts being offered. Freeman’s negations were getting longer and longer, seemingly for no reason, as he wouldn’t accept a 5 year offer. But as we discussed when it all worked out, Freeman could have made more yearly cash with us, and he would have ended up about the same in Atlanta and Los Angeles after taxes. It was the incompetence of Casey Close and Excel Sports Management that kept those negotiations going so long.
Dansby isn’t going to run out of options, and he is going to make a lot. And there are tens of millions of dollars of difference in the negotiations between teams.
What is similar is how Casey Close and Excel Sports Management have played it. They got an offer from the Braves during the season: we think 4 years, $100M. They turned it down. They plan to get the highest offer possible, then call the Braves and try to get them to match it or raise it.
That’s exactly what they did last year and it didn’t work.
According to a report from Mark Bowman though, Dansby has been surprised by the Braves lack of involvement in the negotiations. And he called Alex Anthopolous last week to ask about it.
I will say, I understand both sides on this one.
For one, I appreciate that Dansby would involve himself in the process. If he wants to be a Brave, he should be calling Alex Anthopolous and finding out what that will take.
On the flip side, I get why Anthopolous wouldn’t be involved in the negotiations at this point. Because it’s the period where Excel is just trying to raise the price of the offers. Why would Alex make higher offers when he knows that they will call him at the end of the process? Maybe even offer a fake deadline for him.
I am still skeptical at all that Dansby will end up a Brave. He is a very good shortstop. Not a great one. $25M a year for 5 years is a massive overpay for our context, but it’s not for someone else’s context.
This is what I think will be a hard pill for Braves fans to swallow. A 6 or 7 year contract for Dansby Swanson is not a bad contract for the Cubs, but would be for us.
Dansby’s value is different based on his context. The best way to make sense of this is the contract we signed with Nick Markakis in 2015. 4 years, $44M, most of the MLB world said it was too many years and too much money at the time. We outbid everyone else. But that was because he was perfect for where we were at. We were starting a rebuild, and we needed a stable veteran presence that young players could emulate. That made Markakis more valuable to us than he was to the Orioles, who were a veteran team at that point.
We paid Markakis more than he was worth to everyone else, and we signed up for 2 more years beyond that contract.
Well to a team like the Cubs, who are basically starting over, Dansby is a perfect fit. Because if everyone that comes up through their system acts like Dansby, then they’re perfect. Dansby is the perfect person for them to pay, because it shows what the organization values.
And it doesn’t mean we don’t value him. But we are in a different situation than them. Dansby is invaluable as a shortstop, not just on the field, but off the field. He became our leader this year. But our team is filled with leaders. If Dansby isn’t the team’s leader, Ozzie is able to handle that, and Riley is able to handle that, and D’Arnaud is able to handle that, and Matt Olson is able to handle it, and in a year or two Michael Harris can handle it.
The Braves pump out stud leaders from their farm system every year.
And the ugly side of that is that we can’t pay all of them as much as they can make. We’ll have to make due with the ones who decide to sign here early. If only we had Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Spencer Strider already signed long term.
That said, Dansby could absolutely still decide to sign here. We just saw Aaron Judge walk away from $40M in San Diego to stay in the Bronx. If Dansby sees the top offer he can get, he might still decide it’s not worth the extra $30M if he has to leave the team that he loves playing for. That’s his decision.
I won’t be offended either way. Dansby has earned the right to whatever money he can get. And playing for the Braves and competing for rings every year is mighty fun. Not gonna get that in Chicago or Arizona.
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