Next Weeks Debate......

[-lowcountrydawg]

I wouldn't have posted the poll were it not from FOX, who I assume we can agree is not in the bag for Biden and the Dems.

All I need to do to prove you wrong about the democracy issue is share recent and direct quotes from Trump about J6 and the people charged with and convicted of felonies for their participation. He loves what they did, praises their efforts and calls them heroes, and promises to reward them with pardons. You can't get any clearer than that, and Trump is currently highlighting this message at every campaign event. I don't even need to get into the strength of the fake elector and J6 related indictments to prove my point.

If the FOX polling is accurate, a lot of others feel the same way I do and Biden's efforts to keep the issue front and center will continue to impact the race in a meaningful way.

If anything I've noticed the Fox polls have been a little bit more encouraging for Biden over the last six months, relative to other larger ones, which have shown larger Trump leads overall. Reuters had Biden up 2 at the end of May, now Trump up two this week. I think where polls can get more skewed politically is in more nuanced questions about issues - "more likely / less likely", etc. Who you voting for between two guys is tough to thumb the scale unless you sample specific demos / regions that go against the spirit of randomness.

I think betting odds generally do a better job of predicting winners, because folks have dollars at stake. The RCP betting odds went from Biden up in October to Trump +20 currently. That can certainly turn on a dime, as Trump was the heavy favorite towards the end of election night 2020, prior to all the mail-in votes being counted.

 

[zingerdawg]

I wouldn't have posted the poll were it not from FOX, who I assume we can agree is not in the bag for Biden and the Dems.

All I need to do to prove you wrong about the democracy issue is share recent and direct quotes from Trump about J6 and the people charged with and convicted of felonies for their participation. He loves what they did, praises their efforts and calls them heroes, and promises to reward them with pardons. You can't get any clearer than that, and Trump is currently highlighting this message at every campaign event. I don't even need to get into the strength of the fake elector and J6 related indictments to prove my point.

If the FOX polling is accurate, a lot of others feel the same way I do and Biden's efforts to keep the issue front and center will continue to impact the race in a meaningful way.

Any of the tv show polling I take with a grain of salt. I would bet that would garner some attention. Which drives ratings. I don’t watch a ton of Fox. But I do catch snippets of prior shows on YouTube when I can. In no way do I think this is in the bag for Trump. Not at all.

Plus, I can totally see Kamala Harris being asked to not certify this election if Trump wins. Will be very interested to see how she handles that.

 

[PharmDawg08]

I am watching ... like the format (muted mics) but wish there was a crowd there. I think to show fairness it would have been great to have a CNN / FOX co-sponsored debate and have Bret Baier and Kaitlan Collins both ask questions and press each candidate from their viewpoint on certain issues.

 

[Lady43]

I'll watch.

Biden needs to hammer Trump with Jan 6th.

Also interested to see if Trump will actually state specific policies.

Bidens mind can’t function, if he could read responses off a monitor that might help. Both my parents had Alzheimers, it’s sad to see. I did not vote for him and never would, but my point is that Alzheimer’s is a bad disease to have. He is not capable of running the country now, look at the mess his constituents have made of the USA. 😢

 

[-lowcountrydawg]

Bidens mind can’t function, if he could read responses off a monitor that might help. Both my parents had Alzheimers, it’s sad to see. I did not vote for him and never would, but my point is that Alzheimer’s is a bad disease to have. He is not capable of running the country now, look at the mess his constituents have made of the USA. 😢

I think like many rapidly aging folks he’s got good days and bad days. And if he has the luxury of resting up and building for a 1.5 hour timeframe, with no public appearances a week before or a week after, he will be able to manufacture a good moment at the debate, as he did for SOTU. Good moment being the avoidance of what he seems to do in every other public setting - present as someone a couple feet from the grave.

The difference in the debate from SOTU may be the adrenaline he won’t be getting from a super friendly crowd with long pauses / applause. But he should still show better than his xfinity glitching routine at his stylish Juneteenth concert and his gobbledygook mumbling introducing congress last week.

The bar is low. If he avoids the viral indefensible senile man moment, he will have “destroyed trump” in the media’s eyes.