This is going to be long and there are so many things still ahead that it’s hard to speak in absolutes but I do think some here aren’t looking realistically at our chances to make the playoff much less host a game.
Let me preface this by saying I’m as frustrated as any fan here. I don’t think this has been a very good coaching job across the board and we have not played a clean, efficient game all year. I do believe we are a top 10 team in a very strange year for college football and if we win out, I think we are in. However there are many things that could happen to keep us out. Please feel free to add or correct me as it is hard to get one’s mind around the possibilities.
As we all know, 12 teams get in but 5 spots are automatic. 4 power 5 champs and the highest ranked G5 (or whatever they are called now). That leaves 7 at large bids. Top 4 seeds get a bye so only seeds 5-8 get to host.
The other wrinkle is according to experts I’ve read and heard, the committee is not going to punish champ game losers as severely as they have in past. Thats assuming the loser was already inside the top 8-10. Ex: Bama makes SECCG but loses. That 3rd loss prob doesn’t eliminate them in those circumstances. Basically rewarding the regular season over penalizing a champ game loser.
Teams in the conversation
SEC: Texas, A&M, Bama, OM, UGA
One of these will win the conference so that leaves 4. Bama and OM likely higher than UGA based on head to head. Texas + A&M what happens to loser of that game?? Where are they ranked?
Big 10: Oregon, OSU, Penn St, Indiana
Again, one will win Big10. Leaves 3. If Indiana goes 11-1, where are they? If Indiana beats OSU and makes Big10 champ, where is OSU rank? If Oregon loses big10, same question?
ACC: SMU, Clemson, Miami
Lot of scenarios here but likely one of these wins ACC. Best case for UGA is Miami wins. Prob takes the other 2 out of the conversation. If not, where does Miami land?
BIG12: BYU, Colorado, ???
Same as ACC. We need to hope there isn’t an upset in the champ game as BYU would present a conundrum for the committee.
Others: Notre Dame, Boise St, Army
If things go as expected, ND is in. And as I understand it, 1 of the other 2 bc they would be highest ranked G5 champ.
So top 4 conf champs
Top ranked G5 Champ
ND might as well be automatic as long as they win out.
Assuming things go chalk, Bama, OM, OSU, Indiana likely in. Thats 10 spots taken. UGA, A&M, Penn St, Clemson and maybe an unknown for the other 2 spots.
I’m not saying I’d rank some of these teams ahead of us. Personally I think we are in if we win out and Id have us seeded 7-8 but that will depend on the outcomes of other games. And we have to understand, the committee is not looking at things with the same perspective as we do.
Let me preface this by saying I’m as frustrated as any fan here. I don’t think this has been a very good coaching job across the board and we have not played a clean, efficient game all year. I do believe we are a top 10 team in a very strange year for college football and if we win out, I think we are in. However there are many things that could happen to keep us out. Please feel free to add or correct me as it is hard to get one’s mind around the possibilities.
As we all know, 12 teams get in but 5 spots are automatic. 4 power 5 champs and the highest ranked G5 (or whatever they are called now). That leaves 7 at large bids. Top 4 seeds get a bye so only seeds 5-8 get to host.
The other wrinkle is according to experts I’ve read and heard, the committee is not going to punish champ game losers as severely as they have in past. Thats assuming the loser was already inside the top 8-10. Ex: Bama makes SECCG but loses. That 3rd loss prob doesn’t eliminate them in those circumstances. Basically rewarding the regular season over penalizing a champ game loser.
Teams in the conversation
SEC: Texas, A&M, Bama, OM, UGA
One of these will win the conference so that leaves 4. Bama and OM likely higher than UGA based on head to head. Texas + A&M what happens to loser of that game?? Where are they ranked?
Big 10: Oregon, OSU, Penn St, Indiana
Again, one will win Big10. Leaves 3. If Indiana goes 11-1, where are they? If Indiana beats OSU and makes Big10 champ, where is OSU rank? If Oregon loses big10, same question?
ACC: SMU, Clemson, Miami
Lot of scenarios here but likely one of these wins ACC. Best case for UGA is Miami wins. Prob takes the other 2 out of the conversation. If not, where does Miami land?
BIG12: BYU, Colorado, ???
Same as ACC. We need to hope there isn’t an upset in the champ game as BYU would present a conundrum for the committee.
Others: Notre Dame, Boise St, Army
If things go as expected, ND is in. And as I understand it, 1 of the other 2 bc they would be highest ranked G5 champ.
So top 4 conf champs
Top ranked G5 Champ
ND might as well be automatic as long as they win out.
Assuming things go chalk, Bama, OM, OSU, Indiana likely in. Thats 10 spots taken. UGA, A&M, Penn St, Clemson and maybe an unknown for the other 2 spots.
I’m not saying I’d rank some of these teams ahead of us. Personally I think we are in if we win out and Id have us seeded 7-8 but that will depend on the outcomes of other games. And we have to understand, the committee is not looking at things with the same perspective as we do.
