A Marist poll came out yesterday that showed of ACTUAL early voters (which I believe is the only one of actual early voters):
AZ: Harris 55 Trump 44,
NC: Harris 55 Trump 43,
GA: Harris 54 Trump 45.
Compare it to the party affiliation that has voted early:
AZ ev so far - 36D, 42R, 22 none, 28% of 2020 total vote turnout
NC ev so far - 34D, 34R, 32 none, 36% of 2020 total
GA ev so far - (no party reported), 44% of 2020 total
If you compare these numbers it shows that Rs could possibly be voting for Harris (I have forever-Rs in my family in GA that are either not voting or voting for Harris), which coincides with Haley's strong showing against Trump, even after Trump solidified the nomination and that 8-12% of Haley voters are either not going to vote, or will vote Dem.
Rs have flooded the polls with conservative leaning polls in the last couple of weeks (I think something like 15-18 polls), which is why the race appears closer... they are doing this for 3 reasons:
- Trump's ego
- "Sheep" mentality of "joining the momentum / winners"
- So Trump can more easily contest the results by whining about winning the polls.
Not predicting a Harris win here or anything... anyone predicting one or the other is just trying to get clicks. Way too close and people are here are far too confident.