I don't see it happening. Look at Houston's last two successful coaches, Briles and Sumlin. Both parlayed their success into better jobs in-state at Baylor and A&M. The biggest college football coaching job in the state is dangling right in front of him if he is just patient. Charlie Strong may or may not survive another year at Texas. I can see a scenario where Strong resigns to take the job at uscjr and Herman becomes Texas head coach.
uscjr is a "final destination" job in more ways than one. Look at the careers of Jim Carlen, Richard Bell, Joe Morrison, Sparky Woods, Brad Scott, Holtz, and Spurrier. Whether it's firing, death, a brawl, or quitting like a dog, the end is never pleasant.