The disaffected factor in polls…..

[Lava-Man]

I had already seen the full clip.

“Nine barrels trained on her face.”

I don’t remember many battle field scenarios where someone is standing there with nine barrels trained on their face.

Trying to clean this one up for Trump is a losing proposition. I’d expect nothing less, but in the context of his rhetoric over the last weeks and months, it’s concerning and inflammatory. Suggesting anything else is insulting our intelligence.

What's the more honest interpretation: "I wonder how the warmongers would react if they had to deal with the consequences of the actions they put on others", which actually makes sense in the full context of what he was talking about or "I'm going to put her in front of a firing squad, but I'll also give her a rifle too for some unclear reason"?

Of course it's a "losing proposition" when everything he says is dissected by a barrage of dishonest brokers. Maybe he should have just called her literally Hitler that must be stopped at all costs? That seems to be ok.

 

[Lava-Man]

This is yet another example of Trump saying something that would've assured the defeat any other presidential candidate in history.

Yeah, just like when he told a group of African Americans that Biden was going to "put them back in chains". Oh, wait. No, that was (D)ifferent.

 

[Lava-Man]

 

[Lava-Man]

And I’m not drifting. You offered up a logical explanation for why Trump would file that suit now and I suggested that was faulty logic. That’s all.

You are correct. The overnight heating and cooling of my lava-brain got me.

 

[willdup]

Good point, talking with my friend in the teams he says there is never more than 2 rifles shooting at you at any one time. I think that's part of the Geneva conventions or something. (sarcasm font)

Trying to turn this into something it's not is pretty weak sauce.

GTFO with that.

We are we always told that Trump doesn’t mean what he said and he should always get the benefit of the doubt? Do you really think he’s earned it?

Russia, if your listening…they did.

Proud Boys, stand back and stand by…where are they now?

J6 was a day of love and he’s going to pardon the heroes and patriots responsible for it.

September of last year Trump suggested that Gen Milley committed treason when he contacted a Chinese counterpart and that treason results in execution.

Trump praises Putin and other strong men all the time. Why?

Sorry, not only has Trump not earned the benefit of the doubt, it’s quite the opposite. Do I think he’s going to line Liz up for a firing squad? No. Is this kind of violent rhetoric from the potential leader of the free world destructive? Of course it is.

 

[stray]

GTFO with that.

We are we always told that Trump doesn’t mean what he said and he should always get the benefit of the doubt? Do you really think he’s earned it?

Russia, if your listening…they did.

Proud Boys, stand back and stand by…where are they now?

J6 was a day of love and he’s going to pardon the heroes and patriots responsible for it.

September of last year Trump suggested that Gen Milley committed treason when he contacted a Chinese counterpart and that treason results in execution.

Trump praises Putin and other strong men all the time. Why?

Sorry, not only has Trump not earned the benefit of the doubt, it’s quite the opposite. Do I think he’s going to line Liz up for a firing squad? No. Is this kind of violent rhetoric from the potential leader of the free world destructive? Of course it is.

 

[-lowcountrydawg]

GTFO with that.

We are we always told that Trump doesn’t mean what he said and he should always get the benefit of the doubt? Do you really think he’s earned it?

Russia, if your listening…they did.

Proud Boys, stand back and stand by…where are they now?

J6 was a day of love and he’s going to pardon the heroes and patriots responsible for it.

September of last year Trump suggested that Gen Milley committed treason when he contacted a Chinese counterpart and that treason results in execution.

Trump praises Putin and other strong men all the time. Why?

Sorry, not only has Trump not earned the benefit of the doubt, it’s quite the opposite. Do I think he’s going to line Liz up for a firing squad? No. Is this kind of violent rhetoric from the potential leader of the free world destructive? Of course it is.

Calling her stupid is the only part I don’t like. I think that is stupid. Effectively making the point that politicians are quick to put enlisted boys at risk while they stay safe I have zero problem with. And illustrating it the way he did is exactly why it is effective.

That said at this point you cannot expect the media to do anything but intentionally try and hurt him. Which is why he should let JD do the talking from here on out.

 

[willdup]

When you don’t have an answer…

Trump’s rhetoric regarding his lauding of J6, which was prompted by his lies, was no day of love and did not involve heroes and patriots, is in fact praising political violence. 330 (and counting) convicted felons, many convicted for violence against LEOs, from his day of love.

There is no other way to see it and you can’t explain it away.

So again, why would we ever provide him the benefit of the doubt when he sues violent imagery and rhetoric?

 

[Lava-Man]

No. Is this kind of violent rhetoric from the potential leader of the free world destructive? Of course it is.

• Kamala Harris — repeatedly: "Trump is a threat to our democracy and fundamental freedoms."
• Kamala Harris: "It's on us to recognize the threat [Trump] poses."
• Kamala Harris: "Does one of us have to come out alive? Ha ha ha ha!"
• Joe Biden: "It's time to put Trump in a bullseye."
• Joe Biden: "I mean this from the bottom of my heart: Trump is a threat to this nation."
• Joe Biden: "There is one existential threat: it's Donald Trump."
• Joe Biden: "Trump is a genuine threat to this nation ... He's literally a threat to everything America stands for."
• Joe Biden: "Trump and MAGA Republicans are a threat to the very soul of this country."
• Joe Biden: "Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic ... and that is a threat to this country."
• Tim Walz: "Are [Republicans] a threat to democracy? Yes. ... Are they going to put peoples' lives in danger? Yes."
• Gwen Walz: "Buh-bye, Donald Trump."
• Rep. Nancy Pelosi: "[Trump] is a threat to our democracy of the kind that we have not seen."
• Rep. Jasmine Crockett: "MAGA in general — they are threats to us domestically."
• Rep. Dan Goldman: "He is destructive to our democracy and ... he has to be eliminated."
• Harris staffer TJ Ducklo: "Trump is an existential, urgent threat to our democracy."
• Top Harris surrogate Liz Cheney: "Trump presents a fundamental threat to the republic and we are seeing it on a daily basis."
• Rep. Steve Cohen: "Trump is an enemy of the United States."
• Rep. Maxine Waters: "Are [Trump supporters] preparing a civil war against us?"
• Rep. Maxine Waters: "I want to know about all of those right-wing organizations that [Trump] is connected with who are training up in the hills somewhere."
• Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz: Trump is an "existential threat to our democracy."
• Rep. Adam Schiff: Trump is the "gravest threat to our democracy."
• Rep. Gregory Meeks: "Trump cannot be president again. He's an existential threat to democracy."
• Rep. Dan Goldman: "Trump remains the greatest threat to our democracy."
• Rep. Jake Auchincloss: "What unifies us as a party is knowing that Donald Trump is an existential threat to Democracy."
• Rep. Abigail Spanberger: "Trump is a threat to our democracy … the threats to our democratic republic are real."
• Rep. Annie Kuster: "Trump and his extreme right-wing followers pose an existential threat to our democracy."
• Rep. Becca Balint: "We cannot underestimate the threat [Trump] poses to American democracy."
• Rep. Jason Crow: "Trump is an extreme danger to our democracy."
• Rep. Raul Grijalva: "Trump is an existential threat to American democracy."
• Sen. Michael Bennet: Trump is "a threat to our democracy."
• Rep. Stacey Plaskett: Trump "needs to be shot."
• Rep. Steven Horsford: "Trump Republicans are a dangerous threat to our state."
• Rep. Gabe Vasquez: "Remove the national threat from office."
• Rep. Mike Levin: "Donald Trump is a threat to our nation, our freedom, and our democracy."
• Rep. Eric Sorensen: "He is the greatest threat to law and order we have in our country."
• Rep. Greg Landsman: "The threat is not over."
• Rep. Pat Ryan: "Trump is an existential threat to American democracy."
• Rick Wilson, The Lincoln Project: "They're still going to have to go out and put a bullet in Donald Trump."
• Former Harris-Biden staffer Kate Bedingfield: Democrats should "turn their fire on Donald Trump."

 

[stray]

When you don’t have an answer…

Trump’s rhetoric regarding his lauding of J6, which was prompted by his lies, was no day of love and did not involve heroes and patriots, is in fact praising political violence. 330 (and counting) convicted felons, many convicted for violence against LEOs, from his day of love.

There is no other way to see it and you can’t explain it away.

So again, why would we ever provide him the benefit of the doubt when he sues violent imagery and rhetoric?

No one asked for a benefit of the doubt, we only ask for honesty in reporting on what he actually said. But, they can't help themselves.

 

[Lava-Man]

Trump’s rhetoric regarding his lauding of J6, which was prompted by his lies, was no day of love and did not involve heroes and patriots, is in fact praising political violence. 330 (and counting) convicted felons, many convicted for violence against LEOs, from his day of love.

 

[willdup]

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Equating the Floyd riots with J6 is a false equivalency for a multitude of reason that shouldn’t require detailing, again.

Violence that happened at a rally is not the same thing as violence that was expressly designed to stop the political process of certification. The J6 people left a Trump rally, carrying Trump flags, and were at the Capitol to “stop the steal”, which was entirely based on a lie.

I know you want it to be the same as the Floyd riots, but it isn’t.

Regarding calling Trump a threat to our democracy, no apologies there. He is the first president in our history who tried to steal an election he lost, and that effort went well beyond the day of J6. He is a threat to our democracy. That’s not speculation, it’s already happened with every reason to believe we can expect more of the same and worse in a second term.

 

[Athens is Heaven]

Equating the Floyd riots with J6 is a false equivalency for a multitude of reason that shouldn’t require detailing, again.

Violence that happened at a rally is not the same thing as violence that was expressly designed to stop the political process of certification. The J6 people left a Trump rally, carrying Trump flags, and were at the Capitol to “stop the steal”, which was entirely based on a lie.

I know you want it to be the same as the Floyd riots, but it isn’t.

Regarding calling Trump a threat to our democracy, no apologies there. He is the first president in our history who tried to steal an election he lost, and that effort went well beyond the day of J6. He is a threat to our democracy. That’s not speculation, it’s already happened with every reason to believe we can expect more of the same and worse in a second term.

And you lie again! Cut out the desperate propaganda.

 

[Lava-Man]

From a Vox journalist in the quoted tweet, fwiw.

 

[Lava-Man]

@willdup

I truly, honestly want to know how you can take this exact quote:

“She’s a radical war hawk,” Trump said of Cheney on Thursday night. “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face. You know, they’re all war hawks when they’re sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, ‘Oh gee … let’s send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy.'”

...and claim he's calling for her to be executed by a firing squad. It's utter nonsense. It doesn't even have to be about giving Trump any 'benefit of the doubt'. It's literally basic reading comprehension, imo.

Anyone who honestly watches the clip of what Trump said will discern that he was obviously suggesting Cheney should pick up a rifle and join the thousands of young Americans she’s sent overseas to fight in forever wars. Anyone who interprets it differently is either lying or utterly stupid (which I know you're not).

It takes a real twisting of his full quote to come to any other conclusion.

 

[kckd]

The argument for a Harris upset victory at this point boils down to pollsters “over-compensating” for their misses in past elections where Trump was massively under-estimated.

I continue to believe that many pollsters just don’t have it in them to publish wide margins favoring Trump, and given their discretion to fudge modeling methodology keeping it close, you’ll continue to see 50/50’ish polling. But that’s not why I think polls continue to underestimate trump this time.

It hasn’t been since 1980 that we’ve had such an issue with inflation….creating an army of disaffection. Both data in terms of prices, interest rates, satisfaction with country polls, etc……as well as a mountain of anecdotal evidence points to this.

This anger with the incumbent is nowhere in any pollsters model.

What we have to look to is the case study of 1980. Carter led by a wide margin into October.

Reagan won the popular vote by 10 pts.

Incumbency is a positive. The incumbent is not running.