My thoughts about what this means to Alabama and therefore Georgia. Looking to get some insight from others.
We all know that Alabama is a Blue Blood, maybe THE Blue Blood. The program itself is impressive with resources, great fanbase, etc. But, we ouldes have also seen what happened the last time the GOAT left Alabama ... they were in the wilderness for a couple of decades as they looked for their next great coach. That is the norm in CFP and sports in general ... going seamlessly from one great coach to the next is the exception. Think OU, NE, USC, tOSU, UM, UTjr, LSU, Miami, FSU, UF, and even UGA from Dooley to Richt then Smart. Right now in the NFL Bilichcik is looking for a job because NE has been terrible after being great for 2 decades. You have to kiss a lot of frogs before you find your prince coach.
With that in mind, I really think we are seeing a huge shift in football power. And, it's happening at the intersection of NIL, the portal, and the expansion of the CFP that are shaking things up. To me, while Alabama is a great football power for the reasons stated above, the real magic was Nick Saban. It's always going to be the coach that makes the difference. Great schools can be bad with mediocre coaches. Saban developed a mystique around Alabama that made teams afraid to play them. Teams were beaten before the game started. At one point he had the no. 1 recruiting class for something like 8 years in a row. They were bigger, faster, meaner, and they had way more of them. Most teams expected to lose.
But, we have seen that wane a bit in the last few years. They lost games they wouldn't have lost before. 2 former coaches beat him. Their evals weren't as good as they were, and he had a harder time getting assistant coaches. Development seems to have dropped off. Now, with all that said, it's still Saban, they had the most talent of any team in the country, and all but a team or two would swap places with them. With him gone, Alabama remains formidable, but it won't be the same. Let's say it's Lanning. He walks into a system ready to go. He likely already runs something similar at Oregon. But he won't get the no. 1 classes all the time. Players that wanted to play for the great Saban at Bama will be a little less inclined to play for Lanning at Bama. When they come out of the tunnel, it's going to be led by a guy who is just in his 3rd year as a HC, not one who was an NFL head coach and had already won a NC at LSU.
Some say that Kirby had a Saban problem, and maybe that's true. Notice no one said he had an Alabama problem. The best coach in CFB now has that mental block, assuming there was one, gone. Might a Haines or Downs have ended up at UGA instead of Bama? Turner? Might the edge on those types of players turn to UGA? Really good players will still want to go to Bama, but not as much as go play for Saban. With Saban gone, no one is better situated to capitalize on him leaving than UGA.
And, their fans will have no idea what to do. I raised my oldest to be a Dawg. He wore Dawg clothes from head to toe growing up. When I went to parent-teachers night at the high school and had my G on my fleece jacket, the teachers would say, "You don't even have to tell me whose dad you are." It's all he wore until he didn't. My wife thought it would be a great idea for him to spend a weekend with her best friend's son at the ATO house in T-Town. I dropped him off on Friday and picked him up on Sunday. I knew it was over the minute we looked at each other. I was happy for him, and went to a bunch of games with him - I was standing in the student section in Bama gear and a shaker for 2 LSU games, and 1 ATM game, and was in the player parents' section for an Iron Bowl, in addition to less significant games. For 4 years I went to a lot of football with him in T-Town. It's what you do when you have sons that make bad decisions.
I tell this part of the post for the following reason - I spent the better part of 4 years around his fraternity brothers, tailgating with player parents, and meeting players after the game because The Traitor's best friend was a PWO, now on staff. So I was around a lot of people who were rabid fans. They have no idea what is about to happen. They are young or new to CFB. I've followed it since the mid-60s and I understand what happens when a great coach moves on. They think that whoever comes in will automatically keep winning because to them they "are Bama" and Bama just wins - all the time. It is going to hit them like a ton of bricks when they realize the players were attracted to Saban as much as Alabama. That they aren't going to win all the time. That no one is going to be scared of them anymore. And, these reasonable people are not going to know how to act. The level of arrogance (I don't say that pejoratively) was incredible, and you couldn't in any way blame them. They did win all the fricking time. Why in the world would you be worried about losing when you are some 18-year-old kid and you've only known them to win? It's going to be glorious to watch as the suddenly aren't the big bully on the block because they no longer have their leader.
Sorry for the long post but was getting all caught up in the "who is going to replace him" drama before I slowed down and thought through how significant this is. Most importantly UGA is the program most likely to benefit from it. That's awesome.
We all know that Alabama is a Blue Blood, maybe THE Blue Blood. The program itself is impressive with resources, great fanbase, etc. But, we ouldes have also seen what happened the last time the GOAT left Alabama ... they were in the wilderness for a couple of decades as they looked for their next great coach. That is the norm in CFP and sports in general ... going seamlessly from one great coach to the next is the exception. Think OU, NE, USC, tOSU, UM, UTjr, LSU, Miami, FSU, UF, and even UGA from Dooley to Richt then Smart. Right now in the NFL Bilichcik is looking for a job because NE has been terrible after being great for 2 decades. You have to kiss a lot of frogs before you find your prince coach.
With that in mind, I really think we are seeing a huge shift in football power. And, it's happening at the intersection of NIL, the portal, and the expansion of the CFP that are shaking things up. To me, while Alabama is a great football power for the reasons stated above, the real magic was Nick Saban. It's always going to be the coach that makes the difference. Great schools can be bad with mediocre coaches. Saban developed a mystique around Alabama that made teams afraid to play them. Teams were beaten before the game started. At one point he had the no. 1 recruiting class for something like 8 years in a row. They were bigger, faster, meaner, and they had way more of them. Most teams expected to lose.
But, we have seen that wane a bit in the last few years. They lost games they wouldn't have lost before. 2 former coaches beat him. Their evals weren't as good as they were, and he had a harder time getting assistant coaches. Development seems to have dropped off. Now, with all that said, it's still Saban, they had the most talent of any team in the country, and all but a team or two would swap places with them. With him gone, Alabama remains formidable, but it won't be the same. Let's say it's Lanning. He walks into a system ready to go. He likely already runs something similar at Oregon. But he won't get the no. 1 classes all the time. Players that wanted to play for the great Saban at Bama will be a little less inclined to play for Lanning at Bama. When they come out of the tunnel, it's going to be led by a guy who is just in his 3rd year as a HC, not one who was an NFL head coach and had already won a NC at LSU.
Some say that Kirby had a Saban problem, and maybe that's true. Notice no one said he had an Alabama problem. The best coach in CFB now has that mental block, assuming there was one, gone. Might a Haines or Downs have ended up at UGA instead of Bama? Turner? Might the edge on those types of players turn to UGA? Really good players will still want to go to Bama, but not as much as go play for Saban. With Saban gone, no one is better situated to capitalize on him leaving than UGA.
And, their fans will have no idea what to do. I raised my oldest to be a Dawg. He wore Dawg clothes from head to toe growing up. When I went to parent-teachers night at the high school and had my G on my fleece jacket, the teachers would say, "You don't even have to tell me whose dad you are." It's all he wore until he didn't. My wife thought it would be a great idea for him to spend a weekend with her best friend's son at the ATO house in T-Town. I dropped him off on Friday and picked him up on Sunday. I knew it was over the minute we looked at each other. I was happy for him, and went to a bunch of games with him - I was standing in the student section in Bama gear and a shaker for 2 LSU games, and 1 ATM game, and was in the player parents' section for an Iron Bowl, in addition to less significant games. For 4 years I went to a lot of football with him in T-Town. It's what you do when you have sons that make bad decisions.
I tell this part of the post for the following reason - I spent the better part of 4 years around his fraternity brothers, tailgating with player parents, and meeting players after the game because The Traitor's best friend was a PWO, now on staff. So I was around a lot of people who were rabid fans. They have no idea what is about to happen. They are young or new to CFB. I've followed it since the mid-60s and I understand what happens when a great coach moves on. They think that whoever comes in will automatically keep winning because to them they "are Bama" and Bama just wins - all the time. It is going to hit them like a ton of bricks when they realize the players were attracted to Saban as much as Alabama. That they aren't going to win all the time. That no one is going to be scared of them anymore. And, these reasonable people are not going to know how to act. The level of arrogance (I don't say that pejoratively) was incredible, and you couldn't in any way blame them. They did win all the fricking time. Why in the world would you be worried about losing when you are some 18-year-old kid and you've only known them to win? It's going to be glorious to watch as the suddenly aren't the big bully on the block because they no longer have their leader.
Sorry for the long post but was getting all caught up in the "who is going to replace him" drama before I slowed down and thought through how significant this is. Most importantly UGA is the program most likely to benefit from it. That's awesome.
