Obviously conjecture and anecdotal evidence. I posted this a few days ago:
- My youngest son has 15 best friends, girls and boys. They did everything together. Right after graduation they got it ... about 9 of the 15. Most asymptomatic, a few were out for 3 or 4 days. No one bad at all. The rest of the summer, no one got anything.
- My oldest son is at Bama, lives with 9 other guys. 3 have got it this summer, I anticipate the at least 2-3 more will get it in the next 2 months.
That means my two kids are in groups where over 50% have had it will have it. Their group likely has herd immunity. Their age group, even if they get it, aren't going to get seriously ill. I am guessing this is pretty common across the 17-22 age spectrum.
I'm a realist. I fully anticipate that 22 and under kids will act like 22 and under kids. I fully expect colleges to go to remote classes only to protect teachers. They didn't to start so as to make sure all the kids registered and will pay to go to school. I think many colleges may have to clear out dorms again like they did in the spring, but have hopes that the first wave can be handled and that doesn't happen.
I don't think there is anything shocking or surprising in my statements here. Are their risks that they spread it? Sure, that's why if my son gets it he isn't coming home. And son no. 2 who has to be at home - his LA college is not on campus this fall - knows to be careful ... he wouldn't be in a crowd like that.