Kentucky rolls into Athens at a strong 23-10 overall, but probably a slightly disappointing 5-7 in the SEC. UK’s biggest successes in pre-league play came in sweeping a weekend in Houston at the Shriners Hospitals for Children College Classic. UK breezed through the weekend, beating Houston 14-2, Sam Houston State 7-2, and Louisiana Lafayette 10-4. The Cats then took 2/3 at home from a good Texas Tech team.
UK probably felt ok about going down Arkansas to start off conference play, but that trip didn’t go so well as Arkansas swept the Bat Cats by a combined scored of 39-15. But UK would bounce back and take 2/3 from Auburn the next weekend in Lexington, before a disappointing 1-2 weekend at Tuscaloosa. Last weekend, Kentucky was involved in an odd series with South Carolina in Lexington. The Cats won the first game 14-1, but South Carolina won the second game 15-1. You had to figure the rubber game would be close given those two results, and it was (ish) with UK winning 10-5. Kentucky is only 6-5 in road games this season.
Tomorrow night, we’ll see giant righty Sean Hjelle (I think it’s pronounced like “jelly”). On the year, Hjelle is 5-2 in 8 appearances, all starts, and sports a 2.86 ERA. His 50 1/3 innings lead their squad. He has a great 50/9 K/BB and opponents are hitting only .208 againt him. Of the 40 hits he’s allowed this season, 31 have been singles. Hjelle is a junior righty from White Bear Lake, Minnesota, which was referenced in one of my favorite movies, Fargo. He won SEC Pitcher of the Year last year and is the #20 overall draft prospect by Baseball America and #8 in the SEC in that same publication. This guy is probably the best Friday night arm that we’ve seen this year.
In game two, we’ll face off with Zach Haake, a big junior righty from Breese Illinois. Things haven’t gone as well for Haake this year. He’s 1-2 in 9 appearances, 3 starts, and has a 7.03 ERA. He’s thrown 24 1/3 inning. He has a 23/18 K/BB and opponents are hitting .274 against him. He’s given up a whopping 6 home runs, but UK does play in something of a band box. Still, I think that we can hit this guy.
In game three, which may well be on Saturday night, we’ll face off with Justin Lewis, a big junior righty from Suwanee. I’m sure he’ll be plenty excited about getting the ball in his home state. Lewis is 6’7, so I guess it’s safe to say that UK has the biggest pitching staff we’ll face this year. It’s been a pretty good season so far for Lewis. He’s 5-2 in 8 appearances, all starts. His 46 1/3 innings are second most on the staff. He has a 56/17 K/BB. Opponents are hitting .235 against him, but he has allowed 9 HRs.
It looks like Kentucky’s closer is a fellow named Chris Machamer, a junior righty from North Canton Ohio. They have a couple of left handed options, but not a ton, which obviously bodes well for us.
Kentucky’s pitching numbers aren’t great. They have a 5.07 staff ERA and .249 average against. They have the worst ERA in the conference by almost .8 runs. Only three teams have a worst batting average against and they’ve given up the most HRs in the league (but again, they play in a small park). They are the only SEC team without a balk this season… The old Scott Stricklin would spend all weekend trying to win a balk call. I’m really glad he’s toned that down a little bit…
Hjelle is really good, and Lewis is capabable too, but Kentucky’s bread and butter is clearly their hitting.
When Luke Heyer gets off the bus tomorrow, you probably wouldn’t assume that he’s leading the SEC in HRs. The senior from Lithia Florida is only 6’, 200 lbs. We should see him hitting 3rd, but he has hit lower in their order. On the year, he’s hitting .358/.447/.767. His 13 HRs lead the SEC, as do his 40 RBI. He also leads Kentucky in stolen bases with 7… reminds of Brent Rooker in that respect, although Rooker was leading the SEC in steals last May, as I recall. Heyer hits from the right side. HE has drawn 16 walks and K’d 29 times.
Kyle Cottom is the UK 1B. We should see him hitting 5th. Cottom is a big right handed hitting junior from Knoxville. On the season, he’s hitting .344/.441/.672. Only Heyer has more HRs in the SEC as Cottom stands at 12 and also has collected 29 RBI. He’s drawn 19 walks to go with 28 strikeouts.
Tristan Pompey is one of those guys who seems like he’s been there for a decade now. Pompey is a big junior switch hitting OF from Toronto. We should see him in LF and hitting leadoff. On the year, he’s hitting .358/.455/.632. He has 5 HRs and 28 RBI. He’s drawn 15 walks and K’d 25 times.
As a team, Kentucky is hitting .319, which is tops in the league. They are also tops in slugging percentage by a wide margin and have the best OBP and the most runs scored. They lead the league in doubles and are tied for the lead league in HRs. They can really swing it and the three guys I mentioned are three of the better hitters that we’ll see this season.
Kentucky runs a decent amount. They’ve attempted 52 stolen bases on the year, which is 5th most in the league. The have stolen 38, also good enough for 5th most.
As a team, they have a .974 fielding percentage, which is just under ours (we are at .978). Kentucky has the fewest steals against in the SEC at 19, but has only throw out 4 runners.
Overall, I think these guys are a little better than the smart money figured. They were ranked pretty highly coming into the season, but I think a lot of that was based on what they did last year and they did lose some guys. Really, when Arkansas swept them in the manner that they did, I thought to myself that we were seeing the real Kentucky… But that was off-base. They’re 5-4 in the conference since that weekend. I think that they’re going to bring a confident team down here. At 5-7 overall, they’re still very much in the thick of things. They have Florida next weekend, but it’s in Lexington, and then they’ll play Missouri at home too before going to Tennessee and hosting Miss State. I don’t know how much guys really peek ahead, but I think there should be some wins coming for them over the month. With offensive numbers like that, I’m sure they think they can hit our pitching. We’ll see. This looks like a really interesting series on paper.
We have a somewhat weird thing going with UK, where they’ve won their last three series in Athens and we’ve won the last two series in Lexington. It’s hard to believe that the last time we beat Kentucky on a weekend in Athens was to close out that dreadful 2010 season. It was the only league series we won all season… We won the middle game, on a rainy Friday night in front of probably 125 people, by a score of 20-0 as we pounded out 22 hits, all singles. Last year was one of the more unlikely series wins that we’ve had, probably since we beat Florida to close out the 2013 season. Kentucky was eyeing a national seed, we’d lost six of our first seven SEC series, and we went up there and won in extras on Friday afternoon and then won the rubber game Sunday. To me, it was one thing to beat Miss State, as good as they were, the next weekend because we had them at home. And it was one thing to beat South Carolina in Columbia, but pretty much everyone won a series from South Carolina last year. But Kentucky was a series that never should have shown up for us… that had sweep written all over it when we went up there. But we found a way and I’d really like to think that Friday afternoon changed the tide around the program to a certain extent… hell, we’re 14-7 in the SEC going back to that Friday afternoon.
Gotta keep the ball down this weekend and we have play to our abilities defensively. If we do, I think we’ll be fine. This is a great test for our pitching staff, in a different way than Vanderbilt was last weekend.
The series win and tie breaker may be really important this weekend too…
UK probably felt ok about going down Arkansas to start off conference play, but that trip didn’t go so well as Arkansas swept the Bat Cats by a combined scored of 39-15. But UK would bounce back and take 2/3 from Auburn the next weekend in Lexington, before a disappointing 1-2 weekend at Tuscaloosa. Last weekend, Kentucky was involved in an odd series with South Carolina in Lexington. The Cats won the first game 14-1, but South Carolina won the second game 15-1. You had to figure the rubber game would be close given those two results, and it was (ish) with UK winning 10-5. Kentucky is only 6-5 in road games this season.
Tomorrow night, we’ll see giant righty Sean Hjelle (I think it’s pronounced like “jelly”). On the year, Hjelle is 5-2 in 8 appearances, all starts, and sports a 2.86 ERA. His 50 1/3 innings lead their squad. He has a great 50/9 K/BB and opponents are hitting only .208 againt him. Of the 40 hits he’s allowed this season, 31 have been singles. Hjelle is a junior righty from White Bear Lake, Minnesota, which was referenced in one of my favorite movies, Fargo. He won SEC Pitcher of the Year last year and is the #20 overall draft prospect by Baseball America and #8 in the SEC in that same publication. This guy is probably the best Friday night arm that we’ve seen this year.
In game two, we’ll face off with Zach Haake, a big junior righty from Breese Illinois. Things haven’t gone as well for Haake this year. He’s 1-2 in 9 appearances, 3 starts, and has a 7.03 ERA. He’s thrown 24 1/3 inning. He has a 23/18 K/BB and opponents are hitting .274 against him. He’s given up a whopping 6 home runs, but UK does play in something of a band box. Still, I think that we can hit this guy.
In game three, which may well be on Saturday night, we’ll face off with Justin Lewis, a big junior righty from Suwanee. I’m sure he’ll be plenty excited about getting the ball in his home state. Lewis is 6’7, so I guess it’s safe to say that UK has the biggest pitching staff we’ll face this year. It’s been a pretty good season so far for Lewis. He’s 5-2 in 8 appearances, all starts. His 46 1/3 innings are second most on the staff. He has a 56/17 K/BB. Opponents are hitting .235 against him, but he has allowed 9 HRs.
It looks like Kentucky’s closer is a fellow named Chris Machamer, a junior righty from North Canton Ohio. They have a couple of left handed options, but not a ton, which obviously bodes well for us.
Kentucky’s pitching numbers aren’t great. They have a 5.07 staff ERA and .249 average against. They have the worst ERA in the conference by almost .8 runs. Only three teams have a worst batting average against and they’ve given up the most HRs in the league (but again, they play in a small park). They are the only SEC team without a balk this season… The old Scott Stricklin would spend all weekend trying to win a balk call. I’m really glad he’s toned that down a little bit…
Hjelle is really good, and Lewis is capabable too, but Kentucky’s bread and butter is clearly their hitting.
When Luke Heyer gets off the bus tomorrow, you probably wouldn’t assume that he’s leading the SEC in HRs. The senior from Lithia Florida is only 6’, 200 lbs. We should see him hitting 3rd, but he has hit lower in their order. On the year, he’s hitting .358/.447/.767. His 13 HRs lead the SEC, as do his 40 RBI. He also leads Kentucky in stolen bases with 7… reminds of Brent Rooker in that respect, although Rooker was leading the SEC in steals last May, as I recall. Heyer hits from the right side. HE has drawn 16 walks and K’d 29 times.
Kyle Cottom is the UK 1B. We should see him hitting 5th. Cottom is a big right handed hitting junior from Knoxville. On the season, he’s hitting .344/.441/.672. Only Heyer has more HRs in the SEC as Cottom stands at 12 and also has collected 29 RBI. He’s drawn 19 walks to go with 28 strikeouts.
Tristan Pompey is one of those guys who seems like he’s been there for a decade now. Pompey is a big junior switch hitting OF from Toronto. We should see him in LF and hitting leadoff. On the year, he’s hitting .358/.455/.632. He has 5 HRs and 28 RBI. He’s drawn 15 walks and K’d 25 times.
As a team, Kentucky is hitting .319, which is tops in the league. They are also tops in slugging percentage by a wide margin and have the best OBP and the most runs scored. They lead the league in doubles and are tied for the lead league in HRs. They can really swing it and the three guys I mentioned are three of the better hitters that we’ll see this season.
Kentucky runs a decent amount. They’ve attempted 52 stolen bases on the year, which is 5th most in the league. The have stolen 38, also good enough for 5th most.
As a team, they have a .974 fielding percentage, which is just under ours (we are at .978). Kentucky has the fewest steals against in the SEC at 19, but has only throw out 4 runners.
Overall, I think these guys are a little better than the smart money figured. They were ranked pretty highly coming into the season, but I think a lot of that was based on what they did last year and they did lose some guys. Really, when Arkansas swept them in the manner that they did, I thought to myself that we were seeing the real Kentucky… But that was off-base. They’re 5-4 in the conference since that weekend. I think that they’re going to bring a confident team down here. At 5-7 overall, they’re still very much in the thick of things. They have Florida next weekend, but it’s in Lexington, and then they’ll play Missouri at home too before going to Tennessee and hosting Miss State. I don’t know how much guys really peek ahead, but I think there should be some wins coming for them over the month. With offensive numbers like that, I’m sure they think they can hit our pitching. We’ll see. This looks like a really interesting series on paper.
We have a somewhat weird thing going with UK, where they’ve won their last three series in Athens and we’ve won the last two series in Lexington. It’s hard to believe that the last time we beat Kentucky on a weekend in Athens was to close out that dreadful 2010 season. It was the only league series we won all season… We won the middle game, on a rainy Friday night in front of probably 125 people, by a score of 20-0 as we pounded out 22 hits, all singles. Last year was one of the more unlikely series wins that we’ve had, probably since we beat Florida to close out the 2013 season. Kentucky was eyeing a national seed, we’d lost six of our first seven SEC series, and we went up there and won in extras on Friday afternoon and then won the rubber game Sunday. To me, it was one thing to beat Miss State, as good as they were, the next weekend because we had them at home. And it was one thing to beat South Carolina in Columbia, but pretty much everyone won a series from South Carolina last year. But Kentucky was a series that never should have shown up for us… that had sweep written all over it when we went up there. But we found a way and I’d really like to think that Friday afternoon changed the tide around the program to a certain extent… hell, we’re 14-7 in the SEC going back to that Friday afternoon.
Gotta keep the ball down this weekend and we have play to our abilities defensively. If we do, I think we’ll be fine. This is a great test for our pitching staff, in a different way than Vanderbilt was last weekend.
The series win and tie breaker may be really important this weekend too…
